Cost-effectiveness in unstable economies: the case of sacubitril/valsartan in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction in Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Sacubitril/valsartan (an Angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor-ARNI) is one of the cornerstones in the management of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) having demonstrated significant reductions in both mortality and hospitalisations as compared with enalapril. It proved to be a cost-effective treatment in many countries with stable economies. In Argentina, a country with chronic financial instability and a fragmented health care system, the estimation of its cost-effectiveness requires to consider local financial data. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan in HFrEF in Argentina. METHODS: We populated an Excel-based cost-effectiveness model, previously validated, using inputs from the pivotal phase-3 PARADIGM-HF trial and from local sources. As the main problem to consider was the financial instability, we adopted a differential approach to cost discounting based on the opportunity cost of capital. Thus, a discount rate for costs were set at 31.6%, using the BADLAR rate published by the Central Bank of Argentina. Discount for effects were set at 5% as is the current practice. Costs were expressed in Argentinian pesos (ARS). We used the perspective for both the social security and private payers at a 30-year horizon. The primary analysis was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) versus enalapril, the previous standard of care. Alternative scenarios performed included a 5% cost discount rate and 3 a 5-year horizon (as is usually used). RESULTS: In Argentina the cost-per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril was 391,158 ARS and 376,665 ARS for a social security and a private payer, respectively, at a 30- year horizon. These ICERs were under the cost- effectiveness threshold of 520,405.79 ARS (1 Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita) suggested by Argentinian health technology assessment bodies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed an acceptability of sacubitril/valsartan as a cost-effective alternative of 86.40% and 88.25% for social security and private payers, respectively. CONCLUSION: Sacubitril/valsartan is a cost-effective treatment in HFrEF using local inputs that considered the financial instability. For both payers considered the cost per QALY gained are under the cost-effectiveness threshold considered.

Clinical Management Strategies in Mild COVID-19 cases in Latin-America: A Decision Model / Estrategias de manejo clínico de casos leves de COVID-19 en América Latina: Modelo de decisión

COVID-19 pandemic is challenging Latin American health systems, which could benefit from information to make appropriate decisions in contexts of constrained health resources.Objective: to evaluate, in adult patients with suspected mild clinical forms of COVID-19, the clinical effectiveness (life expectancy) and resource consumption (days of hospitalization) of different management strategies.Methods: stochastic decision tree comparing the conventional strategy recommended by WHO - PAHO (diagnostic test for COVID-19 and hospitalization of patients testing positive) versus two alternative strategies (immediate addition of a prognostic test with hospitalization according to its result, or follow-up with hospitalization only in case of clinical deterioration).Results: the alternative management strategies showed expected clinical utility similar to the conventional strategy in 80 years-old base cases, and slightly lower in 60 years- and 40 years-old base cases, with lower consumption of hospitalization days. In sensitivity analysis, alternative strategies comparatively improved their expected clinical utility given a lower sensitivity of the diagnostic test or a higher ability of the follow-up to detect clinical worsening.Conclusions: in cases of suspected COVID-19 without pneumonic infiltrate or signs of severity, alternative strategies can be considered to avoid hospitalization for the majority of patients, especially if efficient follow-up modalities can be implemented. This information is valuable for health decision-makers, to carefully weight clinical and epidemiological elements and design locally feasible strategies.

La pandemia COVID-19 desafía los sistemas de salud de Latinoamérica, que podrían beneficiarse de información para tomar decisiones apropiadas, en contextos de escasez de recursos sanitarios.Objetivo: evaluar, en pacientes adultos con sospecha de formas clínicas leves de COVID-19, la efectividad clínica (expectativa de vida) y el consumo de recursos (días de hospitalización) de distintas estrategias de manejo. Métodos: árbol de decisión estocástico, comparando la estrategia convencional recomendada por OMS - OPS (prueba diagnóstica para COVID-19 y hospitalización ante resultado positivo) versus dos estrategias alternativas (agregado inmediato de una prueba pronóstica con hospitalización según ese resultado, y seguimiento con hospitalización sólo ante empeoramiento clínico). Resultados: las estrategias de manejo alternativas mostraron utilidad clínica esperada similar a la estrategia convencional en casos base de 80 años de edad, y ligeramente inferior en casos base de 60 años y 40 años de edad, con menor consumo de días de hospitalización. En el análisis de sensibilidad, las estrategias alternativas mejoraron comparativamente su utilidad clínica esperada si la sensibilidad de la prueba diagnóstica fuera menor o la capacidad del seguimiento para detectar empeoramiento clínico fuera mayor. Conclusiones: ante casos sospechosos de COVID-19 sin infiltrado neumónico ni signos de gravedad, pueden considerarse estrategias que eviten la hospitalización de la mayoría de los pacientes, en especial si pueden implementarse modalidades de seguimiento eficientes. Esta información es valiosa para los decisores en salud, para analizar ponderadamente elementos clínicos y epidemiológicos y diseñar estrategias factibles localmente.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in Latin America and its association with sub-clinical carotid atherosclerosis: the CARMELA cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome increases cardiovascular risk. Limited information on its prevalence in Latin America is available. The Cardiovascular Risk Factor Multiple Evaluation in Latin America (CARMELA) study included assessment of metabolic syndrome in 7 urban Latin American populations. METHODS: CARMELA was a cross-sectional, population-based, observational study conducted in Barquisimeto, Venezuela; Bogota, Colombia; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Lima, Peru; Mexico City, Mexico; Quito, Ecuador; and Santiago, Chile. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome, defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III), and associated carotid atherosclerosis were investigated in 11,502 participants aged 25 to 64 years. RESULTS: Across CARMELA cities, metabolic syndrome was most prevalent in Mexico City (27%) and Barquisimeto (26%), followed by Santiago (21%), Bogota (20%), Lima (18%), Buenos Aires (17%), and Quito (14%). In nondiabetic participants, prevalence was slightly lower but followed a comparable ranking. Overall, 59%, 59%, and 73% of women with high triglycerides, hypertension, or glucose abnormalities, respectively, and 64%, 48% and 71% of men with abdominal obesity, hypertension, or glucose abnormalities, respectively, had the full metabolic syndrome. Prevalence of metabolic syndrome increased with age, markedly so in women. Mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCAIMT) and prevalence of carotid plaque increased steeply with increasing numbers of metabolic syndrome components; mean CCAIMT was higher and plaque more prevalent in participants with metabolic syndrome than without. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components by NCEP ATP III criteria was substantial across cities, ranging from 14% to 27%. CARMELA findings, including evidence of the association of metabolic syndrome and carotid atherosclerosis, should inform appropriate clinical and public health interventions.

Las alteraciones agudas de la motilidad parietal no constituyen un predictor independiente de evolución adversa en la angina inestable / Acute regional wall motion abnormalities are not an independent predictor of adverse outcome in unstable angina

Se evaluaron con ecocardiograma 194 pacientes con angina inestable sin infarto previo ni elevación de CPK posadmisión. La prevalencia de alteraciones agudas de la motilidad parietal fue del 43,8 por ciento, y las variables asociadas significativamente con su presencia fueron insuficiencia cardíaca, infradesnivel del segmento ST y episodio anginoso prolongado. En el análisis univariado, la tasa de eventos intrahospitalarios y a 90 días fue mayor en los pacientes con un puntaje de motilidad parietal alterado, aunque no conservó valor pronóstico independiente en los modelos de regresión logística. Estos datos no apoyan el uso rutinario del ecocardiograma en los pacientes con angina inestable

Las alteraciones agudas de la motilidad parietal no constituyen un predictor independiente de evolución adversa en la angina inestable / Acute regional wall motion abnormalities are not an independent predictor of adverse outcome in unstable angina

Se evaluaron con ecocardiograma 194 pacientes con angina inestable sin infarto previo ni elevación de CPK posadmisión. La prevalencia de alteraciones agudas de la motilidad parietal fue del 43,8 por ciento, y las variables asociadas significativamente con su presencia fueron insuficiencia cardíaca, infradesnivel del segmento ST y episodio anginoso prolongado. En el análisis univariado, la tasa de eventos intrahospitalarios y a 90 días fue mayor en los pacientes con un puntaje de motilidad parietal alterado, aunque no conservó valor pronóstico independiente en los modelos de regresión logística. Estos datos no apoyan el uso rutinario del ecocardiograma en los pacientes con angina inestable (AU)