10-Year Multimorbidity Trajectories in Older People Have Limited Benefit in Predicting Short-Term Health Outcomes in Comparison to Standard Multimorbidity Thresholds: A Population-Based Study.

Purpose: To identify multimorbidity trajectories among older adults and to compare their health outcome predictive performance with that of cross-sectional multimorbidity thresholds (eg, ≥2 chronic conditions (CCs)). Patients and Methods: We performed a population-based longitudinal study with a random sample of 99,411 individuals aged >65 years on April 1, 2019. Using health administrative data, we calculated for each individual the yearly CCs number from 2010 to 2019 and constructed the trajectories with latent class growth analysis. We used logistic regression to determine the increase in predictive capacity (c-statistic) of multimorbidity trajectories and traditional cross-sectional indicators (≥2, ≥3, or ≥4 CCs, assessed in April 2019) over that of a baseline model (including age, sex, and deprivation). We predicted 1-year mortality, hospitalization, polypharmacy, and frequent general practitioner, specialist, or emergency department visits. Results: We identified eight multimorbidity trajectories, each representing between 3% and 25% of the population. These trajectories exhibited trends of increasing, stable, or decreasing number of CCs. When predicting mortality, the 95% CI for the increase in the c-statistic for multimorbidity trajectories [0.032-0.044] overlapped with that of the ≥3 indicator [0.037-0.050]. Similar results were observed when predicting other health outcomes and with other cross-sectional indicators. Conclusion: Multimorbidity trajectories displayed comparable health outcome predictive capacity to those of traditional cross-sectional multimorbidity indicators. Given its ease of calculation, continued use of traditional multimorbidity thresholds remains relevant for population-based multimorbidity surveillance and clinical practice.

Multimorbidity prevalence and health outcome prediction: assessing the impact of lookback periods, disease count, and definition criteria in health administrative data at the population-based level.

BACKGROUND: Health administrative databases play a crucial role in population-level multimorbidity surveillance. Determining the appropriate retrospective or lookback period (LP) for observing prevalent and newly diagnosed diseases in administrative data presents challenge in estimating multimorbidity prevalence and predicting health outcome. The aim of this population-based study was to assess the impact of LP on multimorbidity prevalence and health outcomes prediction across three multimorbidity definitions, three lists of diseases used for multimorbidity assessment, and six health outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study including all individuals ages > 65 years on April 1st, 2019, in Québec, Canada. We considered three lists of diseases labeled according to the number of chronic conditions it considered: (1) L60 included 60 chronic conditions from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD); (2) L20 included a core of 20 chronic conditions; and (3) L31 included 31 chronic conditions from the Charlson and Elixhauser indices. For each list, we: (1) measured multimorbidity prevalence for three multimorbidity definitions (at least two [MM2+], three [MM3+] or four (MM4+) chronic conditions); and (2) evaluated capacity (c-statistic) to predict 1-year outcomes (mortality, hospitalisation, polypharmacy, and general practitioner, specialist, or emergency department visits) using LPs ranging from 1 to 20 years. RESULTS: Increase in multimorbidity prevalence decelerated after 5-10 years (e.g., MM2+, L31: LP = 1y: 14%, LP = 10y: 58%, LP = 20y: 69%). Within the 5-10 years LP range, predictive performance was better for L20 than L60 (e.g., LP = 7y, mortality, MM3+: L20 [0.798;95%CI:0.797-0.800] vs. L60 [0.779; 95%CI:0.777-0.781]) and typically better for MM3 + and MM4 + definitions (e.g., LP = 7y, mortality, L60: MM4+ [0.788;95%CI:0.786-0.790] vs. MM2+ [0.768;95%CI:0.766-0.770]). CONCLUSIONS: In our databases, ten years of data was required for stable estimation of multimorbidity prevalence. Within that range, the L20 and multimorbidity definitions MM3 + or MM4 + reached maximal predictive performance.

Sex-specific medication trajectories in older adults newly diagnosed with diabetes.

Background: People with diabetes tend to use many medications to treat diabetes and comorbidities. Nevertheless, the evolution of polypharmacy in newly diagnosed males and females has been little studied. Objective: The objective of this paper was to identify and describe medication trajectories in incident diabetes cases according to sex. Methods: Data were obtained from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System. We built a population-based cohort of community-dwelling individuals aged >65 years diagnosed with diabetes in 2014 who were alive and covered with the public drug plan until March 31, 2019. Latent class models were used to identify medication trajectory groups in males and females separately. Results: Of the 10,363 included individuals, 51.4% were males. Females were older and more likely to have more medication claims than males. Four trajectory groups were identified for males and five for females. Most trajectories showed sustained and stable number of medications over time. For each sex, only one of the trajectory groups included a mean annual number of medications lesser than five. Slight increasing trends of medication use were detected in the trajectories composed of very high users, which included older, more comorbid individuals frequently exposed to potentially inappropriate medications. Conclusions: Most males and females with incident diabetes had a high burden of medication following the year of diagnosis and were classified in a group of sustained medication use over time. The largest increase in medication was among those who had higher level of polypharmacy of questionable quality at baseline, raising concerns about the innocuity of such medication trajectories.

Impact of chronic comorbidities on hospitalization, intensive care unit admission and death among adult vaccinated and unvaccinated COVID-19 confirmed cases during the Omicron wave.

Background: Comorbidities are important risk factors of severe COVID-19 complications. Their impact during the Omicron wave among vaccinated and unvaccinated COVID-19 cases is not well documented. Purpose: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between the number of comorbidities and the risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death among vaccinated and unvaccinated confirmed adult COVID-19 cases during the Omicron wave. Research Design and Study sample: We performed a cohort study of COVID-19 adult cases of primo-infection occurring during the Omicron wave, from December 5, 2021 to January 9, 2022 using surveillance database of the province of Québec, Canada. The database included all laboratory-confirmed cases in the province and the related information on 21 pre-existing comorbidities, hospitalization, ICU admission, death related to COVID-19 and vaccination status. Analysis: We performed a robust Poisson regression model to estimate the impact of the number of comorbidities on each complication by vaccination status adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and living environment. Results: We observed that the risk of complication increased for each additional comorbidity in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals and that this risk was systematically higher among unvaccinated individuals. Compared with vaccinated individuals without comorbidities (reference group), the risks of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death were respectively: 9X (95% CI [7.77-12.01]), 13X (95% CI [8.74-18.87]), and 12X (95% CI [7.57-18.91]) higher in vaccinated individuals with ≥3 comorbidities; 22X (95% CI [19.07-25.95]), 45X (95% CI [29.06-69.67]) and 38X (95% CI [23.62-61.14]) higher in unvaccinated individuals with ≥3 comorbidities. Conclusion: Our results support the importance of promoting vaccination in all individuals, and especially those with pre-existing medical conditions, to reduce severe complications, even during the Omicron wave.

Exploring the associations between polypharmacy and COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths: a population-based cohort study among older adults in Quebec, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: To study the association between polypharmacy and the risk of hospitalisation and death in cases of COVID-19 in the population over the age of 65. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System, composed of five medico-administrative databases, in the province of Quebec, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: 32 476 COVID-19 cases aged over 65 whose diagnosis was made between 23 February 2020 and 15 March 2021, and who were covered by the public drug insurance plan (thus excluding those living in long-term care). We counted the number of different medications they claimed between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020. OUTCOME MEASURES: Robust Poisson regression was used to calculate relative risk of hospitalisation and death associated with the use of multiple medications, adjusting for age, sex, chronic conditions, material and social deprivation and living environment. RESULTS: Of the 32 476 COVID-19 cases included, 10 350 (32%) were hospitalised and 4146 (13%) died. Compared with 0-4 medications, polypharmacy exposure was associated with increased hospitalisations, with relative risks ranging from 1.11 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.19) for those using 5-9 medications to 1.62 (95% CI 1.51 to 1.75) for those using 20+. Similarly, the risk of death increased with the number of medications, from 1.13 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.30) for those using (5-9 medications to 1.97 (95% CI 1.70 to 2.27) (20+). Increased risk was mainly observed in younger groups. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy was significantly associated with the risk of hospitalisations and deaths related to COVID-19 in this cohort of older adults. Polypharmacy may represent a marker of vulnerability, especially for younger groups of older adults.

Dental Caries Experience in Elementary School Students in Quebec: Surveillance Study Using ICDAS II.

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of a 2012-2013 clinical study on the oral health of Quebec elementary school students was to assess the oral health status of Grade 2 and Grade 6 students. We assessed various stages of caries and created caries indicators for primary and permanent dentitions combined. METHODS: Oral health examination of 2875 Grade 2 students and 2788 Grade 6 students, enrolled in public and private, French- and English-language schools, was carried out at schools. The examinations were performed by 16 trained and calibrated dentists using International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) II criteria. A 3-level sampling design ensured that the study was representative for the province of Quebec. RESULTS: Mean indexes for decayed, missing, filled primary teeth (dmft) and secondary teeth (DMFT) or surfaces (dmfs and DMFS) for all stages of caries were as follows. Grade 2 students: dmft 3.96, DMFT 1.88, dmft + DMFT 5.84, dmfs 8.33, DMFS 2.96 and dmfs + DMFS 11.28. Grade 6 students: dmft 1.94, DMFT 4.98, dmft + DMFT 5.98, dmfs 4.04, DMFS 7.86 and dmfs + DMFS 9.96. Most students (90% for Grade 2 and 92% for Grade 6) had a dmfs + DMFS > 0. CONCLUSION: Tooth decay remains a public health problem in Quebec. The findings testify to the importance of reinforcing preventive measures to better control dental caries among youth. It is advantageous to use ICDAS II in the context of oral health surveillance at a population level and to present the results as a combination of primary and permanent dentitions.

Omega-3 fatty acids, polymorphisms and lipid related cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Inuit population.

BACKGROUND: Tissue concentrations of fatty acids (FAs) and genetic variations are well-known factors which affect the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. The objective was to examine whether the genetic variability of 20 candidate genes and red blood cells (RBCs) percentage of total n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), a biomarker of dietary n-3 PUFA intake, modulate lipid related CVD risk factors in the Inuit population. METHODS: Data from the Qanuippitaa Nunavik Health Survey (n = 553) were analysed via multivariate regression models with 40 known polymorphisms, RBCs percentage of n-3 PUFA, and the interaction term to take into account the effect on plasma lipid and apolipoporotein levels. RESULTS: Individuals being heterozygotes for CETP C-4502T (rs183130) or G-971A (rs4783961) together with higher n-3 PUFA had lower triacylglycerol (TG) concentrations compared to homozygotes for the minor allele. Further, effects of a stronger beneficial association between n-3 PUFA in RBCs and plasma lipid parameters- including lower total cholesterol (TC), lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) or higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations- were associated with AGT M235T (rs699) TT genotype, CETP G-971A (rs4783961) AG genotype, T allele carriers of CETP C-4502T (rs183130), and T allele carriers of CETP Ile405Val (rs5882). In contrast, higher n-3 PUFA in RBCs were associated with adverse lipid profiles- including increased LDL-C, increased apolipoprotein B100 or decreased HDL-C concentrations- in G allele carriers of the APOA5 -3 A/G (rs651821), C allele carriers of APOA5 T-1131C (rs662799), G carriers of APOC3 SstI (rs5128) and G carriers of APOA4 Asn147Ser (rs5104). CONCLUSION: Overall, these results suggest that percentage of total n-3 PUFA of RBCs are associated with lipids related CVD risk factors conferred by genetic variations in the Inuit population.

Gene-diet interactions on plasma lipid levels in the Inuit population.

The Inuit population is often described as being protected against CVD due to their traditional dietary patterns and their unique genetic background. The objective of the present study was to examine gene-diet interaction effects on plasma lipid levels in the Inuit population. Data from the Qanuippitaa Nunavik Health Survey (n 553) were analysed via regression models which included the following: genotypes for thirty-five known polymorphisms (SNP) from twenty genes related to lipid metabolism; dietary fat intake including total fat (TotFat) and saturated fat (SatFat) estimated from a FFQ; plasma lipid levels, namely total cholesterol (TC), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and TAG. The results demonstrate that allele frequencies were different in the Inuit population compared with the Caucasian population. Further, seven SNP (APOA1 - 75G/A (rs670), APOB XbAI (rs693), AGT M235T (rs699), LIPC 480C/T (rs1800588), APOA1 84T/C (rs5070), PPARG2 - 618C/G (rs10865710) and APOE 219G/T (rs405509)) in interaction with TotFat and SatFat were significantly associated with one or two plasma lipid parameters. Another four SNP (APOC3 3238C>G (rs5128), CETP I405V (rs5882), CYP1A1 A4889G (rs1048943) and ABCA1 Arg219Lys (rs2230806)) in interaction with either TotFat or SatFat intake were significantly associated with one plasma lipid variable. Further, an additive effect of these SNP in interaction with TotFat or SatFat intake was significantly associated with higher TC, LDL-C or TAG levels, as well as with lower HDL-C levels. In conclusion, the present study supports the notion that gene-diet interactions play an important role in modifying plasma lipid levels in the Inuit population.

Relation between methylmercury exposure and plasma paraoxonase activity in inuit adults from Nunavik.

BACKGROUND: Methylmercury (MeHg) exposure has been linked to an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Paraoxonase 1 (PON1), an enzyme located in the high-density-lipoprotein (HDL) fraction of blood lipids, may protect against CHD by metabolizing toxic oxidized lipids associated with low-density liproprotein and HDL. MeHg has been shown to inhibit PON1 activity in vitro, but this effect has not been studied in human populations. OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to determine whether blood mercury levels are linked to decreased plasma PON1 activities in Inuit people who are highly exposed to MeHg through their seafood-based diet. METHODS: We measured plasma PON1 activity using a fluorogenic substrate and blood concentrations of mercury and selenium by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry in 896 Inuit adults. Sociodemographic, anthropometric, clinical, dietary, and lifestyle variables as well as PON1 gene variants (rs705379, rs662, rs854560) were considered as possible confounders or modifiers of the mercury-PON1 relation in multivariate analyses. RESULTS: In a multiple regression model adjusted for age, HDL cholesterol levels, omega-3 fatty acid content of erythrocyte membranes, and PON1 variants, blood mercury concentrations were inversely associated with PON1 activities [ß-coefficient = -0.063; 95% confidence interval (CI), -0.091 to -0.035; p < 0.001], whereas blood selenium concentrations were positively associated with PON1 activities (ß-coefficient = 0.067; 95% CI, 0.045-0.088; p < 0.001). We found no interaction between blood mercury levels and PON1 genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that MeHg exposure exerts an inhibitory effect on PON1 activity, which seems to be offset by selenium intake.