Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science.

Storylines are introduced in climate science to provide unity of discourse, integrate the physical and socioeconomic components of phenomena, and make climate evolution more tangible. The use of this concept by multiple scholar communities and the novelty of some of its applications renders the concept ambiguous nonetheless, because the term hides behind a wide range of purposes, understandings, and methodologies. This semi-systematic literature review identifies three approaches that use storylines as a keystone concept: scenarios-familiar for their use in IPCC reports-discourse-analytical approaches, and physical climate storylines. After screening peer-reviewed articles that mention climate and storylines, 270 articles are selected, with 158, 55, and 57 in each category. The results indicate that each scholarly community works with a finite and different set of methods and diverging understandings. Moreover, these approaches have received criticism in their assembly of storylines: either for lacking explicitness or for the homogeneity of expertise involved. This article proposes that cross-pollination among the approaches can improve the usefulness and usability of climate-related storylines. Among good practices are the involvement of a broader range of scientific disciplines and expertise, use of mixed-methods, assessment of storylines against a wider set of quality criteria, and targeted stakeholder participation in key stages of the process.

How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector.

Predicting the variations in climate for the coming 1-10 years is of great interest for decision makers, as this time horizon coincides with the strategic planning of stakeholders from climate-vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. This study attempts to illustrate the potential value of decadal predictions in the development of climate services by establishing interactions and collaboration with stakeholders concerned with food production and security. Building on our experience from interacting with users and the increased understanding of their needs gathered over the years through our participation in various European activities and initiatives, we developed a decadal forecast product that provides tailored and user-friendly information about multi-year dry conditions for the coming five years over global wheat harvesting regions. This study revealed that the coproduction approach, where the interaction between the user and climate service provider is established at an early stage of forecast product development, is a fundamental step to successfully provide useful and ultimately actionable information to the interested stakeholders. The study also provides insights that shed light on the reasons for the delayed entry of decadal predictions in the climate services discourse and practice, obtained from surveying climate scientists and discussing with decadal prediction experts. Finally, it shows the key challenges that this new source of climate information still faces.

Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of more representative samples, which would contribute to an informed and legitimate decision-making process.

Sensitivity and specificity of ultrasonography as a screening tool for gestational diabetes mellitus.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of ultrasound markers of gestational diabetes (GDM) and propose an ultrasound based scoring system suitable for screening (UGDS). METHODS: 110 women with singleton pregnancies and established maternal and/or pregnancy related risk factors for GDM were scanned at/or after 24 weeks gestation followed by administration of a 3 hour 100-gram oral glucose tolerance test (oGTT). A number of ultrasound markers were determined/measured, including fetal adipose subcutaneous tissue, asymmetrical macrosomy, cardiac circumference, cardiac width, and interventricular septum thickness, immature appearance of placenta, intensified breathing movements, polyhydramnios and placental thickness. Each ultrasound GDM marker was assigned one point to create the ultrasound gestational diabetes screening score (UGDS). RESULTS: All ultrasound GDM markers were positively correlated to the disease P < 0.0001. The strongest independent predictor of GDM was an immature appearance of placenta (RR 40.1 95% CI 5.9-271.0, P < 0.0001). Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) showed an area under the curve of 95.7% confirming good ability of UGDS to discriminate between positive and negative oGTT. We propose a UGDS score of 4 providing sensitivity of 90.9%, and specificity 89.6%. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that UGDS is a good predictor of GDM.