The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia.

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa was stopped by an enormous concerted effort of local communities and national and international organizations. It is not clear, however, how much the public health response and behavioural changes in affected communities, respectively, contributed to ending the outbreak. Here, we analyse the epidemic in Lofa County, Liberia, lasting from March to November 2014, by reporting a comprehensive time line of events and estimating the time-varying transmission intensity using a mathematical model of Ebola transmission. Model fits to the epidemic show an alternation of peaks and troughs in transmission, consistent with highly heterogeneous spread. This is combined with an overall decline in the reproduction number of Ebola transmission from early August, coinciding with an expansion of the local Ebola treatment centre. We estimate that healthcare seeking approximately doubled over the course of the outbreak, and that isolation of those seeking healthcare reduced their reproduction number by 62% (mean estimate, 95% credible interval (CI) 59-66). Both expansion of bed availability and improved healthcare seeking contributed to ending the epidemic, highlighting the importance of community engagement alongside clinical intervention.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.

Epidemiological and Surveillance Response to Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Lofa County, Liberia (March-September, 2014); Lessons Learned.

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak was confirmed in Liberia on March 31st 2014. A response comprising of diverse expertise was mobilized and deployed to the country to contain transmission of Ebola and give relief to a people already impoverished from protracted civil war. This paper describes the epidemiological and surveillance response to the EVD outbreak in Lofa County in Liberia from March to September 2014. Five of the 6 districts of Lofa were affected. The most affected districts were Voinjama/Guardu Gbondi and Foya. By 26th September, 2014, a total of 619 cases, including 19.4% probable cases, 20.3% suspected cases and 44.2% confirmed cases were recorded by the Ebola Emergency Response Team (EERT) of Lofa County. Adults (20-50 years) were the most affected. Overall fatality rate was 53.3%.  Twenty two (22) cases were reported among the Health Care Workers with a fatality rate of 81.8%. Seventy eight percent (78%) of the contacts successfully completed 21 days follow-up while 134 (6.15%) that developed signs and symptoms of EVD were referred to the ETU in Foya. The contributions of the weak health systems as well as socio-cultural factors in fueling the epidemic are highlighted. Importantly, the lessons learnt including the positive impact of multi-sectorial and multidisciplinary and coordinated response led by the government and community.  Again, given that the spread of infectious disease can be considered a security threat every effort has to put in place to strengthen the health systems in developing countries including the International Health Regulation (IHR)'s core capacities. Key words:  Ebola virus disease, outbreak, epidemiology and surveillance, socio-cultural factors, health system, West Africa.

Evidence for a decrease in transmission of Ebola virus--Lofa County, Liberia, June 8-November 1, 2014.

Lofa County has one of the highest cumulative incidences of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in Liberia. Recent situation reports from the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MoHSW) have indicated a decrease in new cases of Ebola in Lofa County. In October 2014, the Liberian MoHSW requested the assistance of CDC to further characterize recent trends in Ebola in Lofa County. Data collected during June 8-November 1, 2014 from three sources were analyzed: 1) aggregate data for newly reported cases, 2) case-based data for persons admitted to the dedicated Ebola treatment unit (ETU) for the county, and 3) test results for community decedents evaluated for Ebola. Trends from all three sources suggest that transmission of Ebola virus decreased as early as August 17, 2014, following rapid scale-up of response activities in Lofa County after a resurgence of Ebola in early June 2014. The comprehensive response strategy developed with participation from the local population in Lofa County might serve as a model to implement in other affected areas to accelerate control of Ebola.