Diagnosing challenges and setting priorities for sustainable water resource management under climate change.

Managing transboundary river basins requires balancing tradeoffs of sustainable water use and coping with climate uncertainty. We demonstrate an integrated approach to exploring these issues through the lens of a social-ecological system, combining remote and in-situ earth observations, hydrologic and climate models, and social surveys. Specifically, we examine how climate change and dam development could impact the Se Kong, Se San and Sre Pok rivers in the Mekong region. We find that climate change will lead to increased precipitation, necessitating a shift in dam operations, from maintaining low flows to reducing flood hazards. We also find that existing water governance systems in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are ill-prepared to address the problem. We conclude that the solution space for addressing these complex issues will be highly constrained unless major deficiencies in transboundary water governance, strategic planning, financial capacity, information sharing, and law enforcement are remedied in the next decades.

Mapping Land Use Land Cover Change in the Lower Mekong Basin from 1997 to 2010.

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is biologically diverse, economically important, and home to about 65 million people. The region has undergone extensive environmental changes since the 1990s due to such factors as agricultural expansion and intensification, deforestation, more river damming, increased urbanization, growing human populations, expansion of industrial forest plantations, plus frequent natural disasters from flooding and drought. The Mekong river is also heavily used for human transportation, fishing, drinking water, and irrigation. This paper discusses use of pre-existing LULC maps from 1997 and 2010 to derive a LMB regional LULC change map for 9 classes per date using GIS overlay techniques. The change map was derived to aid SWAT hydrologic modeling applications in the LMB, given the 2010 map is currently used in multiple LMB SWAT models, whereas the 1997 map was previously used. The 2010 LULC map was constructed from Landsat and MODIS satellite data, while the 1997 map was from before the MODIS era and therefore based on available Landsat data. The 1997-2010 LULC change map showed multiple trends. Permanent agriculture had expanded in certain sub-basins into previously forested areas. Some agricultural areas were converted to industrial forest plantations. Extensive forest changes also occurred in some locations, such as areas changed to shifting cultivation or permanent crops. Also, the 1997 map under classified some urban areas, whereas the 2010 LULC map showed improved identification of such areas. LULC map accuracy were assessed for 213 randomly sampled locations. The 1997 and 2010 LULC maps showed high overall agreements with reference data exceeding 87%. The LULC change map yielded a moderately high level of overall agreement (78%) that improved to ~83% once LULC classification scheme specificity was reduced (forests and agriculture were each mapped as singular classes). The change map regionally showed a 4% decrease in agriculture and a 4 % increase in deciduous and evergreen forests combined, though deforestation hot spot areas also were evident. The project yielded LULC map data sets that are now available for aiding additional studies that assess LMB LULC change and the impacts such change may pose to water, agriculture, forestry, and disaster management efforts. More work is needed to map, quantify and assess LULC change since 2010 and to further update the 2010 LULC map currently used in the LMB SWAT models.

Agricultural Drought Monitoring via the Assimilation of SMAP Soil Moisture Retrievals Into a Global Soil Water Balance Model.

From an agricultural perspective, drought refers to an unusual deficiency of plant available water in the root-zone of the soil profile. This paper focuses on evaluating the benefit of assimilating soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the USDA-FAS Palmer model for agricultural drought monitoring. This will be done by examining the standardized soil moisture anomaly index. The skill of the SMAP-enhanced Palmer model is assessed over three agricultural regions that have experienced major drought since the launch of SMAP in early 2015: (1) the 2015 drought in California (CA), USA, (2) the 2017 drought in South Africa, and (3) the 2018 mid-winter drought in Australia. During these three events, the SMAP-enhanced Palmer soil moisture estimates (PM+SMAP) are compared against the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products. Results demonstrate the benefit of assimilating SMAP and confirm its potential for improving U.S. Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service root-zone soil moisture information generated using the Palmer model. In particular, PM+SMAP soil moisture estimates are shown to enhance the spatial variability of Palmer model root-zone soil moisture estimates and adjust the Palmer model drought response to improve its consistency with ancillary CHIRPS precipitation and NDVI information.

Web-based decision support system tools: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool Online visualization and analyses (SWATOnline) and NASA earth observation data downloading and reformatting tool (NASAaccess).

The current influx of climate related information required scientists to communicate their findings to decision makers in governments, disaster preparedness organizations, and the general public. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a powerful modelling tool that allows scientists to simulate many of the physical processes involved in the water cycle. This article presents the design, methods and development efforts to overcome some of the limitations of the previously developed SWAT visualization software programs by creating a set of modular web applications that can be duplicated, customized, and run. Moreover, this article features a web application development tool for climate data retrieval. The NASAaccess fetches, extracts and reformats climate data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration servers and outputs data compatible with hydrological models. This work has the potential to increase the SWAT's model impact on non-technically trained stakeholders and decision makers charged with water and climate management.

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment.

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125°× 1258° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm yr-1 in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm yr-1 in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from 10.05 to 10.20 W m-2 yr-1 in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W m-2 yr-1 in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03 K yr-1. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days yr-1 while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W m-2 yr-1, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm yr-1 while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Earth observations and integrative models in support of food and water security.

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries.

Satellite-Based Assessment of Grassland Conversion and Related Fire Disturbance in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska.

Spruce beetle-induced (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby)) mortality on the Kenai Peninsula has heightened local wildfire risk as canopy loss facilitates the conversion from bare to fire-prone grassland. We collected images from NASA satellite-based Earth observations to visualize land cover succession at roughly five-year intervals following a severe, mid-1990's beetle infestation to the present. We classified these data by vegetation cover type to quantify grassland encroachment patterns over time. Raster band math provided a change detection analysis on the land cover classifications. Results indicate the highest wildfire risk is linked to herbaceous and black spruce land cover types, The resulting land cover change image will give the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (KENWR) ecologists a better understanding of where forests have converted to grassland since the 1990s. These classifications provided a foundation for us to integrate digital elevation models (DEMs), temperature, and historical fire data into a model using Python for assessing and mapping changes in wildfire risk. Spatial representations of this risk will contribute to a better understanding of ecological trajectories of beetle-affected landscapes, thereby informing management decisions at KENWR.

Ground and satellite based observation datasets for the Lower Mekong River Basin.

In 'Satellite observations and modeling to understand the Lower Mekong River Basin streamflow variability' [1] hydrological fluxes, meteorological variables, land cover land use maps, and soil characteristics and parameters data were compiled and processed for the Lower Mekong River Basin. In this work, daily streamflow time series data at nine gauges located at five different countries in the Mekong region (Thailand, Laos People׳s Democratic Republic (PDR), Myanmar, Cambodia, and Viet Nam) is presented. Satellite-based daily precipitation and air temperature (minimum & maximum) data is processed and provided over the entire basin as part of the dataset provided in this work. Moreover, land cover land use raster data that contains 18 classes that cover agriculture, urban, range and forests land cover land use classes for the basin is offered. In addition, a soil data that contains physical and chemical characteristics needed by physically based hydrological models to simulate the cycling of water and air is also provided.

Satellite observations and modeling to understand the Lower Mekong River basin streamflow variability.

In this work, we have used the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to examine streamflow variability of the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) associated with changes in the Upper Mekong River Basin (UMRB) inflows. Two hypothetical experiments were formulated and evaluated for the LMRB, where we conducted runoff simulations with multiple inflow changes that include upstream runoff yield increase and decrease scenarios. Streamflow variability of the LMRB was quantified by two streamflow metrics that explain flow variability and predictability, and high flow disturbance. The model experiments were performed for the Lower Mekong River Basin with identical climate, soil, and other watershed characteristics data. Remote sensing precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, TRMM, and Global Precipitation Measurement mission, GPM), meteorological data as well as spatial data that include a digital elevation model, newly developed soil information (Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD), and land use and land cover were processed as input to the LMRB model simulations. Observed daily streamflow data along the Lower Mekong River from Chiang Sean, Thailand to Kratie, Cambodia were used for calibration and validation. Our work results suggest that the Lower Mekong River streamflow is highly variable and has a low predictability (Colwell index of about 32%). We found that releasing more water from upstream Mekong during rainfall months by 30% would result in a reduction in the Lower Mekong streamflow predictability by about 21%. This reduction in predictability is mainly attributed to a decrease in the Contingency index. Our work shows that the ability to predict floods/droughts at the Lower Mekong River would be reduced if there is any anticipated change (i.e., increase/decrease) from UMRB releases. Our results also show that releasing more flows from the upstream Mekong would also affect flood duration and the frequency of flood occurrences downstream. The results of this work thus help to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow variability at the Lower Mekong River Basin to upstream anthropogenic changes.

Improved Hydrological Decision Support System for the Lower Mekong River Basin Using Satellite-Based Earth Observations.

Multiple satellite-based earth observations and traditional station data along with the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model were employed to enhance the Lower Mekong River Basin region's hydrological decision support system. A nearest neighbor approximation methodology was introduced to fill the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrieval for the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (IMERG) grid points from 2001 to 2014, together with the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data points for continuous precipitation forcing for our hydrological decision support system. A software tool to access and format satellite-based earth observation systems of precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures was developed and is presented. Our results suggest that the model-simulated streamflow utilizing TRMM and IMERG forcing data was able to capture the variability of the observed streamflow patterns in the Lower Mekong better than model-simulated streamflow with in-situ precipitation station data. We also present satellite-based and in-situ precipitation adjustment maps that can serve to correct precipitation data for the Lower Mekong region for use in other applications. The inconsistency, scarcity, poor spatial representation, difficult access and incompleteness of the available in-situ precipitation data for the Mekong region make it imperative to adopt satellite-based earth observations to pursue hydrologic modeling.

Information theoretic evaluation of satellite soil moisture retrievals.

Microwave radiometry has a long legacy of providing estimates of remotely sensed near surface soil moisture measurements over continental and global scales. A consistent assessment of the errors and uncertainties associated with these retrievals is important for their effective utilization in modeling, data assimilation and end-use application environments. This article presents an evaluation of soil moisture retrieval products from AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS, AMSR2 and SMAP instruments using information theory-based metrics. These metrics rely on time series analysis of soil moisture retrievals for estimating the measurement error, level of randomness (entropy) and regularity (complexity) of the data. The results of the study indicate that the measurement errors in the remote sensing retrievals are significantly larger than that of the ground soil moisture measurements. The SMAP retrievals, on the other hand, were found to have reduced errors (comparable to those of in-situ datasets), particularly over areas with moderate vegetation. The SMAP retrievals also demonstrate high information content relative to other retrieval products, with higher levels of complexity and reduced entropy. Finally, a joint evaluation of the entropy and complexity of remotely sensed soil moisture products indicates that the information content of the AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS and AMSR2 retrievals is low, whereas SMAP retrievals show better performance. The use of information theoretic assessments is effective in quantifying the required levels of improvements needed in the remote sensing soil moisture retrievals to enhance their utility and information content.

A comparative study of available water in the major river basins of the world.

Numerous large river basins of the world have few and irregular observations of the components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle with the exception of stream gauges at a few locations and at the outlet along with sparsely distributed rain gauges. Using observations from satellite sensors and output from global land surface models, it is possible to study these under-observed river basins. With populations greater than a billion people, some of these rivers (e.g., the Ganga-Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Nile and the Mekong) are the economic engines of the countries they transect, yet thorough assessment of their flow dynamics and variability in regard to water resource management is still lacking. In this paper, we use soil moisture (0-2m) and surface runoff from the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), evapotranspiration, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and total water storage anomaly from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to examine variability of individual water balance components. To this end, understanding the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability and the spatial variability of the water balance components in the major river basins of the world will help to plan for improved management of water resources for the future.

Leveraging Google Earth Engine for Drought Assessment using Global Soil Moisture Data.

Soil moisture is considered a key variable to assess crop and drought conditions. However, readily available soil moisture datasets developed for monitoring agricultural drought conditions are uncommon. The aim of this work is to examine two global soil moisture data sets and a set of soil moisture web-based processing tools developed to demonstrate the value of the soil moisture data for drought monitoring and crop forecasting using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The two global soil moisture data sets discussed in the paper are generated by integrating Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite-derived observations into the modified two-layer Palmer model using a 1-D Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation approach. The web-based tools are designed to explore soil moisture variability as a function of land cover change and to easily estimate drought characteristics such as drought duration and intensity using soil moisture anomalies, and to inter-compare them against alternative drought indicators. To demonstrate the utility of these tools for agricultural drought monitoring, the soil moisture products, vegetation- and precipitation-based products are assessed over drought prone regions in South Africa and Ethiopia. Overall, the 3-month scale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) showed higher agreement with the root zone soil moisture anomalies. Soil moisture anomalies exhibited lower drought duration but higher intensity compare to SPIs. Inclusion of the global soil moisture data into GEE data catalog and the development of the web-based tools described in the paper enable a vast diversity of users to quickly and easily assess the impact of drought and improve planning related to drought risk assessment and early warning. GEE also improves the accessibility and usability of the earth observation data and related tools by making them available to a wide range of researchers and the public. In particular, the cloud-based nature of GEE is useful for providing access to the soil moisture data and scripts to users in developing countries that lack adequate observational soil moisture data or the necessary computational resources required to develop them.