Development of Weather-Based Predictive Models for Fusarium Head Blight and Deoxynivalenol Accumulation for Spring Malting Barley.

The associations between Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Gibberella zeae, and deoxynivalenol (DON) accumulation in spring malting barley (Hordeum vulgare) and hourly weather conditions predictive of DON accumulation were examined using data from six growing seasons in the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Three commonly grown cultivars were planted throughout the region, and FHB disease and DON concentration were recorded. Nine predictor variables were calculated using hourly temperature and relative humidity during the 10 days preceding full head spike emergence. Simple logistic regression models were developed using these predictor variables based on a binary threshold for DON of 0.5 mg/kg. Four of the nine models had sensitivity greater than 80%, and specificity of these models ranged from 67 to 84% (n = 150). The most useful predictor was the joint effect of average hourly temperature and a weighted duration of uninterrupted hours (h) with relative humidity greater than or equal to 90%. The results of this study confirm that FHB incidence is significantly associated with DON accumulation in the grain and that weather conditions prior to full head emergence could be used to accurately predict the risk of economically significant DON accumulation for spring malting barley.

Fusarium head blight severity and deoxynivalenol concentration in wheat in response to Gibberella zeae inoculum concentration.

The relationship between inoculum dose and resulting disease levels and deoxynivalenol (DON) accumulation in the Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat pathosystem was examined under controlled conditions. Greenhouse-grown spring wheat plants were inoculated at flowering with suspensions that varied in Gibberella zeae macroconidia concentration. The spikes were bagged for 72 h to promote infection and plants were then kept under ambient greenhouse conditions and disease allowed to develop. Spikes were rated at 15 days after inoculation for disease incidence and severity, removed from the greenhouse, and dried. DON concentration was determined in grain-only and whole-spike samples for each inoculation treatment. Regression analysis was used to evaluate the mathematical relationship between inoculum dose and the (i) disease metrics or (ii) DON concentration. Both disease incidence and severity were found to increase sharply in relation to inoculum concentration until an asymptote was reached. In both instances, a negative exponential function was found to best explain this relationship. By contrast, DON concentration in both grain-only and whole-spike tissues increased with additional inoculum. These relationships were best explained with linear functions for both sample types, although DON accumulation increased at a greater rate in whole-spike tissue. The functions were evaluated further using data collected from unrelated field studies and, although not particularly consistent, provided reasonably accurate predictions in growing seasons when the environment was only moderately favorable for FHB.