An innovative visual approach to the simultaneous study of two dimensions of progress in longevity: an application to French and German regions.

BACKGROUND: Both enhancing life expectancy and decreasing inequalities in lifespan between social groups are significant goals for public policy. To date, however, methodological tools to study progress in both dimensions simultaneously have been lacking. There is also a consensus that absolute and relative inequalities in lifespan must be studied together. METHODS: We introduce a novel graphical representation that combines national mortality rates with both absolute and relative measures of social inequality in mortality. To illustrate our approach, we analyze French and German data stratified by place of residence. RESULTS: For all-age mortality, in France we find a steady pace of decline in both mortality and in regional inequalities in mortality over recent decades. In Germany, substantial progress was made in the 1990s, mostly driven by convergence between eastern and western Germany, followed by a period of slower progress. Age-specific analyses for Germany reveal a worrying divergence in regional trends at ages 35-74 in recent years, which is particularly pronounced among women. CONCLUSION: Our novel visual approach offers a way to simultaneously examine two dimensions of progress in longevity, and facilitates meaningful comparisons between populations, even when their current mortality rates differ. The applied methods can be easily reproduced in any country for which long-term mortality series stratified by region, or any relevant socioeconomic characteristic, are available. It is useful for both scientific analysis and policy advice.

Spatial disparities in the mortality burden of the covid-19 pandemic across 569 European regions (2020-2021).

Since its emergence in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant increase in deaths worldwide. This article presents a detailed analysis of the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic across 569 regions in 25 European countries. We produce age and sex-specific excess mortality and present our results using Age-Standardised Years of Life Lost in 2020 and 2021, as well as the cumulative impact over the two pandemic years. Employing a forecasting approach based on CP-splines that considers regional diversity and provides confidence intervals, we find notable losses in 362 regions in 2020 (440 regions in 2021). Conversely, only seven regions experienced gains in 2020 (four regions in 2021). We also estimate that eight regions suffered losses exceeding 20 years of life per 1000 population in 2020, whereas this number increased to 75 regions in 2021. The contiguity of the regions investigated in our study also reveals the changing geographical patterns of the pandemic. While the highest excess mortality values were concentrated in the early COVID-19 outbreak areas during the initial pandemic year, a clear East-West gradient appeared in 2021, with regions of Slovakia, Hungary, and Latvia experiencing the highest losses. This research underscores the importance of regional analyses for a nuanced comprehension of the pandemic's impact.

Method for redistributing ill-defined causes of death.

Analysis of causes of death is crucial for monitoring an epidemiological situation and for developing adequate policy responses. However, the comparability of cause-specific mortality data depends on the proportion of ill-defined deaths. To eliminate the bias resulting from the varying proportions of such causes over time and between populations, deaths from ill-defined causes need to be reassigned to other categories. We provide thorough documentation of and tools for the practical implementation of a regression-based method for redistributing ill-defined causes of death, as first proposed by Sully Ledermann in the 1950s. The method relies on subnational cause-specific mortality data to estimate unbiased death rates at both national and subnational levels. We refine Ledermann's method by elaborating on its mathematical properties, making additional adjustments, and evaluating the performance of the approach through simulations. To illustrate the practical application of the method, we rely on French subnational cause-of-death data and provide the R code for performing all calculations.

Spatial Variation in Excess Mortality Across Europe: A Cross-Sectional Study of 561 Regions in 21 Countries.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level. METHODS: Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated. RESULTS: We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden. CONCLUSIONS: Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.

Estimating subnational excess mortality in times of pandemic. An application to French départements in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic's uneven impact on subnational regions highlights the importance of understanding its local-level mortality impact. Vital statistics are available for an increasing number of countries for 2020, 2021, and 2022, facilitating the computation of subnational excess mortality and a more comprehensive assessment of its burden. However, this calculation faces two important methodological challenges: it requires appropriate mortality projection models; and small populations imply considerable, though commonly neglected, uncertainty in the estimates. We address both issues using a method to forecast mortality at the subnational level, which incorporates uncertainty in the computation of mortality measures. We illustrate our approach by examining French départements (NUTS 3 regions, or 95 geographical units), and produce sex-specific estimates for 2020. This approach is highly flexible, allowing one to estimate excess mortality during COVID-19 in most demographic scenarios and for past pandemics.

Mortality inequalities in France since the 1920s: Evidence of a reversal of the income gradient in mortality.

Many recent studies show that Europe has had a lower mortality inequality for most ages than the United States over the last thirty years. However, the evolution of the income gradient in mortality all along the twentieth century remains poorly understood. This article uses a unique dataset that gives the annual lifetables and fiscal income for the 90 administrative regions of mainland France from 1922 to 2020. The income gradients in mortality are computed across regions using a traditional method with calendar ages and, alternatively, with mortality milestones to control for the increase in life expectancy over time. The study reveals a systematic reversal of the gradient that occurred around the 1970s for both sexes and all ages or mortality groups when calculated at an aggregated level. Inequality in mortality amongst the oldest age groups has however returned to a level observed at least ten years earlier because of Covid-19, even after controlling for mortality improvements over the period.

Identifying age- and sex-specific COVID-19 mortality trends over time in six countries.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by successive waves that each developed differently over time and through space. We aim to provide an in-depth analysis of the evolution of COVID-19 mortality during 2020 and 2021 in a selection of countries. METHODS: We focus on five European countries and the United States. Using standardized and age-specific mortality rates, we address variations in COVID-19 mortality within and between countries, and demographic characteristics and seasonality patterns. RESULTS: Our results highlight periods of acceleration and deceleration in the pace of COVID-19 mortality, with substantial differences across countries. Periods of stabilization were identified during summer (especially in 2020) among the European countries analyzed but not in the United States. The latter stands out as the study population with the highest COVID-19 mortality at young ages. In general, COVID-19 mortality is highest at old ages, particularly during winter. Compared with women, men have higher COVID-19 mortality rates at most ages and in most seasons. CONCLUSION: There is seasonality in COVID-19 mortality for both sexes at all ages, characterized by higher rates during winter. In 2021, the highest COVID-19 mortality rates continued to be observed at ages 75+, despite vaccinations having targeted those ages specifically.

The demography of COVID-19 deaths database, a gateway to well-documented international data.

National authorities publish COVID-19 death counts, which are extensively re-circulated and compared; but data are generally poorly sourced and documented. Academics and stakeholders need tools to assess data quality and to track data-related discrepancies for comparability over time or across countries. "The Demography of COVID-19 Deaths" database aims at bridging this gap. It provides COVID-19 death counts along with associated documentation, which includes the exact data sources and points out issues of quality and coverage of the data. The database - launched in April 2020 and continuously updated - contains daily cumulative death counts attributable to COVID-19 broken down by sex and age, place and date of occurrence of the death. Data and metadata undergo quality control checks prior to online release. As of mid-December 2021, it covers 21 countries in Europe and beyond. It is open access at a bilingual (English and French) website with content intended for expert users and non-specialists ( https://dc-covid.site.ined.fr/en/ ; figshare: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5807027 ). Data and metadata are available for each country separately and pooled over all countries.