Paleoecology provides context for conserving culturally and ecologically important pine forest and barrens communities.

In fire-prone ecosystems, knowledge of vegetation-fire-climate relationships and the history of fire suppression and Indigenous cultural burning can inform discussions of how to use fire as a management tool, particularly as climate continues to change rapidly. On Wiisaakodewan-minis/Stockton Island in the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore of Wisconsin, USA, structural changes in a pine-dominated natural area containing a globally rare barrens community occurred after the cessation of cultural burning by the Indigenous Ojibwe people and the imposition of fire-suppression policies, leading to questions about the historical role of fire in this culturally and ecologically important area. To help understand better the ecological context needed to steward these pine forest and barrens communities, we developed palaeoecological records of vegetation, fire, and hydrological change using pollen, charcoal, and testate amoebae preserved in peat and sediment cores collected from bog and lagoon sediments within the pine-dominated landscape. Results indicated that fire has been an integral part of Stockton Island ecology for at least 6000 years. Logging in the early 1900s led to persistent changes in island vegetation, and post-logging fires of the 1920s and 1930s were anomalous in the context of the past millennium, likely reflecting more severe and/or extensive burning than in the past. Before that, the composition and structure of pine forest and barrens had changed little, perhaps due to regular low-severity surface fires, which may have occurred with a frequency consistent with Indigenous oral histories (~4-8 years). Higher severity fire episodes, indicated by large charcoal peaks above background levels in the records, occurred predominantly during droughts, suggesting that more frequent or more intense droughts in the future may increase fire frequency and severity. The persistence of pine forest and barrens vegetation through past periods of climatic change indicates considerable ecological resistance and resilience. Future persistence in the face of climate changes outside this historical range of variability may depend in part on returning fire to these systems.

Light variability and mixotrophy: Responses of testate amoeba communities and shell δ13C values to a peatland shading experiment.

Paleoecological records suggest that growing season length and/or cloudiness may affect peatland carbon accumulation and testate amoeba-based environmental reconstructions, highlighting a need to understand how light intensity affects microbial communities. We shaded plots on two peatlands for two years to examine effects on testate amoeba communities, the relative abundance of mixotrophic and heterotrophic testate amoebae, transfer-function performance, and δ13C values of two species of mixotrophic testate amoebae. Surprisingly, relative abundance of mixotrophic species increased in shade, although compositional changes did not affect transfer-function performance. Shading did not affect δ13C values of Hyalosphenia papilio and Heleopera sphagni, which ranged from -23.5 to -19.6‰ and -23.2 to -19.2‰, respectively. These δ13C values were higher than those of potential food sources and lower than literature-derived values for Chlorella, the zoochlorellae inhabiting mixotrophic testate amoebae. δ13C values thus suggest that these mixotrophic species obtain some carbon from Chlorella, although coupled dietary and isotope studies are needed to quantify this contribution. More research is needed to assess impacts of light variability on peatland microbial communities; however, carbon sources are recorded by δ13C values of testate amoebae, indicating potential for studies of carbon cycling and how mixotrophy varies temporally and spatially.

Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records.

Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. (14)C or (10)Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40-100 years, and 120-140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation.

Decomposing the mid-Holocene Tsuga decline in eastern North America.

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by approximately 200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration pre-decline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies.

Multi-decadal drought and amplified moisture variability drove rapid forest community change in a humid region.

Climate variability, particularly the frequency of extreme events, is likely to increase in the coming decades, with poorly understood consequences for terrestrial ecosystems. Hydroclimatic variations of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) provide a setting for studying ecological responses to recent climate variability at magnitudes and timescales comparable to expectations of coming centuries. We examined forest response to the MCA in the humid western Great Lakes region of North America, using proxy records of vegetation, fire, and hydroclimate. Multi-decadal moisture variability during the MCA was associated with a widespread, episodic decline in Fagus grandifolia (beech) populations. Spatial patterns of drought and forest changes were coherent, with beech declining only in areas where proxy-climate records indicate that severe MCA droughts occurred. The occurrence of widespread, drought-induced ecological changes in the Great Lakes region indicates that ecosystems in humid regions are vulnerable to rapid changes in drought magnitude and frequency.

The potential influence of short-term environmental variability on the composition of testate amoeba communities in Sphagnum peatlands.

Testate amoebae are a group of moisture-sensitive, shell-producing protozoa that have been widely used as indicators of changes in mean water-table depth within oligotrophic peatlands. However, short-term environmental variability (i.e., sub-annual) also probably influences community composition. The objective of this study was to assess the potential influence of short-term environmental variability on the composition of testate amoeba communities in Sphagnum-dominated peatlands. Testate amoebae and environmental conditions, including hourly measurements of relative humidity within the upper centimeter of the peatland surface, were examined throughout the 2008 growing season at 72 microsites within 11 peatlands of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, USA. Relationships among testate amoeba communities, vegetation, depth to water table, pH, and an index of short-term environmental variability (EVI), were examined using nonmetric multidimensional scaling and correlation analysis. Results suggest that EVI influences testate amoeba communities, with some taxa more abundant under highly variable conditions (e.g., Arcella discoides, Difflugia pulex, and Hyalosphenia subflava) and others more abundant when environmental conditions at the peatland surface were relatively stable (e.g., Archerella flavum and Bullinularia indica). The magnitude of environmental variability experienced at the peatland surface appears to be primarily controlled by vegetation composition and density. In particular, sites with dense Sphagnum cover had lower EVI values than sites with loose-growing Sphagnum or vegetation dominated by vascular plants and/or non-Sphagnum bryophytes. Our results suggest that more environmental information may be inferred from testate amoebae than previously recognized. Knowledge of relationships between testate amoebae and short-term environmental variability should lead to more detailed and refined environmental inferences.

Hydroclimatic variability drives episodic expansion of a floating peat mat in a North American kettlehole basin.

The coming century is predicted to feature enhanced climatic variability, including increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climatic events. Ecologists are faced with the critical challenge of anticipating potentially nonlinear ecosystem responses to these changes. High-resolution paleoecological data sets that capture past ecosystem responses to climate variability provide valuable long-term perspectives on the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate-forced state shifts. We used a suite of paleoecological analyses at Titus Bog in northwestern Pennsylvania, USA, to test the hypothesis that the development and expansion of floating peatlands in kettlehole basins represents a threshold response to hydroclimate variability. In contrast with expectations of gradual autogenic peat mat expansion, our results indicate that peat mat expansion at Titus Bog was highly episodic and occurred in three distinct pulses centered on 800, 650, and 400 cal yr BP. Each of these expansion events coincided with or immediately followed decadal-to-mutlidecadal droughts recorded in regional paleoclimate reconstructions. These patterns indicate that peatland development in kettlehole basins can follow nonlinear trajectories, with episodes of rapid advancement triggered by climatic forcing. Future climate changes may increase the likelihood of peatland expansion in kettlehole basins, potentially leading to abrupt changes in adjacent lake ecosystems.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions.

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.