Integrating 'undetectable equals untransmittable' into HIV counselling in South Africa: the development of locally acceptable communication tools using intervention mapping.

BACKGROUND: The global campaign for "Undetectable equals Untransmittable" (U = U) seeks to spread awareness of HIV treatment as prevention, aiming to enhance psychological well-being and diminish stigma. Despite its potential benefits, U = U faces challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa, with low awareness and hesitancy to endorse it. We sought to develop a U = U communications intervention to support HIV counselling in primary healthcare settings in South Africa. METHODS: We used Intervention Mapping (IM), a theory-based framework to develop the "Undetectable and You" intervention for the South African context. The six steps of the IM protocol were systematically applied to develop the intervention including a needs assessment consisting of a systematic review and qualitative research including focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant (KI) interviews. Program objectives and target population were determined before designing the intervention components and implementation plan. RESULTS: The needs assessment indicated low global U = U awareness, especially in Africa, and scepticism about its effectiveness. Lay counsellors and clinic managers stressed the need for a simple and standardized presentation of U = U addressing both patients' needs for encouragement and modelling of U = U success but also clear guidance toward ART adherence behaviour. Findings from each step of the process informed successive steps. Our final intervention consisted of personal testimonials of PLHIV role models and their partners, organized as an App to deliver U = U information to patients in primary healthcare settings. CONCLUSIONS: We outline an intervention development strategy, currently in evaluation stage, utilizing IM with formative research and input from key U = U stakeholders and people living with HIV (PLHIV).

Officer-Involved Killings of Unarmed Black People and Racial Disparities in Sleep Health.

Importance: Racial disparities in sleep health may mediate the broader health outcomes of structural racism. Objective: To assess changes in sleep duration in the Black population after officer-involved killings of unarmed Black people, a cardinal manifestation of structural racism. Design, Setting, and Participants: Two distinct difference-in-differences analyses examined the changes in sleep duration for the US non-Hispanic Black (hereafter, Black) population before vs after exposure to officer-involved killings of unarmed Black people, using data from adult respondents in the US Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS; 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2018) and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS; 2013-2019) with data on officer-involved killings from the Mapping Police Violence database. Data analyses were conducted between September 24, 2021, and September 12, 2023. Exposures: Occurrence of any police killing of an unarmed Black person in the state, county, or commuting zone of the survey respondent's residence in each of the four 90-day periods prior to interview, or occurence of a highly public, nationally prominent police killing of an unarmed Black person anywhere in the US during the 90 days prior to interview. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported total sleep duration (hours), short sleep (<7 hours), and very short sleep (<6 hours). Results: Data from 181 865 Black and 1 799 757 White respondents in the BRFSS and 9858 Black and 46 532 White respondents in the ATUS were analyzed. In the larger BRFSS, the majority of Black respondents were between the ages of 35 and 64 (99 014 [weighted 51.4%]), women (115 731 [weighted 54.1%]), and college educated (100 434 [weighted 52.3%]). Black respondents in the BRFSS reported short sleep duration at a rate of 45.9%, while White respondents reported it at a rate of 32.6%; for very short sleep, the corresponding values were 18.4% vs 10.4%, respectively. Statistically significant increases in the probability of short sleep and very short sleep were found among Black respondents when officers killed an unarmed Black person in their state of residence during the first two 90-day periods prior to interview. Magnitudes were larger in models using exposure to a nationally prominent police killing occurring anywhere in the US. Estimates were equivalent to 7% to 16% of the sample disparity between Black and White individuals in short sleep and 13% to 30% of the disparity in very short sleep. Conclusions and Relevance: Sleep health among Black adults worsened after exposure to officer-involved killings of unarmed Black individuals. These empirical findings underscore the role of structural racism in shaping racial disparities in sleep health outcomes.

Does Engagement in HIV Care Affect Screening, Diagnosis, and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Low- and middle-income countries are facing a growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Providing HIV treatment may provide opportunities to increase access to NCD services in under-resourced environments. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate whether use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated with increased screening, diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, or cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A comprehensive search of electronic literature databases for studies published between 01 January 2011 and 31 December 2022 yielded 26 studies, describing 13,570 PLWH in SSA, 61% of whom were receiving ART. Random effects models were used to calculate summary odds ratios (ORs) of the risk of diagnosis by ART status and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), where appropriate. ART use was associated with a small but imprecise increase in the odds of diabetes diagnosis (OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.71, 1.60) and an increase in the odds of hypertension diagnosis (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.42, 3.09). We found minimal data on the association between ART use and screening, treatment, or control of NCDs. Despite a potentially higher NCD risk among PLWH and regional efforts to integrate NCD and HIV care, evidence to support effective care integration models is lacking.

Gaps in the type 2 diabetes care cascade: a national perspective using South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database.

BACKGROUND: Research out of South Africa estimates the total unmet need for care for those with type 2 diabetes mellitus (diabetes) at 80%. We evaluated the care cascade using South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database and assessed if HIV infection impacts progression through its stages. METHODS: The cohort includes patients from government facilities with their first glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or plasma glucose (fasting (FPG); random (RPG)) measured between January 2012 to March 2015 in the NHLS. Lab-diagnosed diabetes was defined as HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, FPG ≥ 7.0mmol/l, or RPG ≥ 11.1mmol/l. Cascade stages post diagnosis were retention-in-care and glycaemic control (defined as an HbA1c < 7.0% or FPG < 8.0mmol/l or RPG < 10.0mmol/l) over 24-months. We estimated gaps at each stage nationally and by people living with HIV (PLWH) and without (PLWOH). RESULTS: Of the 373,889 patients tested for diabetes, 43.2% had an HbA1c or blood glucose measure indicating a diabetes diagnosis. Amongst those with lab-diagnosed diabetes, 30.9% were retained-in-care (based on diabetes labs) and 8.7% reached glycaemic control by 24-months. Prevalence of lab-diagnosed diabetes in PLWH was 28.6% versus 47.3% in PLWOH. Among those with lab-diagnosed diabetes, 34.3% of PLWH were retained-in-care versus 30.3% PLWOH. Among people retained-in-care, 33.8% of PLWH reached glycaemic control over 24-months versus 28.6% of PLWOH. CONCLUSIONS: In our analysis of South Africa's NHLS database, we observed that 70% of patients diagnosed with diabetes did not maintain in consistent diabetes care, with fewer than 10% reaching glycemic control within 24 months. We noted a disparity in diabetes prevalence between PLWH and PLWOH, potentially linked to different screening methods. These differences underscore the intricacies in care but also emphasize how HIV care practices could guide better management of chronic diseases like diabetes. Our results underscore the imperative for specialized strategies to bolster diabetes care in South Africa.

Designing effective U = U communication strategies considering the needs of PLHIV, their partners, and healthcare worker constraints in South African clinics.

INTRODUCTION: We sought to understand the Undetectable = Untransmittable (U = U) communication needs of persons living with HIV (PLHIV) and barriers to U = U communication among healthcare providers (HCPs) in South Africa. METHODS: We conducted five focus group discussions (FGDs) with HCPs (N = 42) including nurses and counsellors from primary healthcare clinics (PHCs) in the Gauteng and Free State Provinces of South Africa, three FGDs (N = 27) with PLHIV recruited by snowball sampling from civil society organizations, and 27 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with recently diagnosed PLHIV in Johannesburg. IDIs and FGDs were audio recorded, transcribed, translated to English, and analysed thematically. RESULTS: PLHIV were largely unaware and sceptical of U = U as the message appeared to contradict the mainstream HIV prevention clinical guidance. The low viral load (VL) knowledge further reduced confidence in U = U. PLHIV need support and guidance on the best approaches for sharing U = U information and disclosing their VL status to their partners, highlighting the central role of community understanding of U = U and VL to mediate the desired stigma reduction, social acceptance and emotional benefits of U = U for PLHIV. HCPs were uneasy about sharing U = U due to concerns about risk compensation and ART non-adherence and worried about enabling any ensuing HIV transmission. HCPs also need a simple, unambiguous, and consistent narrative for U = U, integrated with other HIV prevention messages. PLHIV and HCPs alike recommended a patient-centred approach to communicating U = U, focusing primarily on attaining viral suppression and emphasizing that condomless sex is only safe during periods of ART adherence. CONCLUSIONS: These data highlight the need for simple U = U communication support targeting both HCP and PLHIV. Culturally appropriate communication materials, with training and ongoing mentorship of the clinic staff, are essential to improve patient-centred U = U communication in clinics.

Tuberculosis testing patterns in South Africa to identify groups that would benefit from increased investigation.

The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) collects all public health laboratory test results in South Africa, providing a cohort from which to identify groups, by age, sex, HIV, and viral suppression status, that would benefit from increased tuberculosis (TB) testing. Using NHLS data (2012-2016), we assessed levels and trends over time in TB diagnostic tests performed (count and per capita) and TB test positivity. Estimates were stratified by HIV status, viral suppression, age, sex, and province. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds of testing positive for TB by viral suppression status. Nineteen million TB diagnostic tests were conducted during period 2012-2016. Testing per capita was lower among PLHIV with viral suppression than those with unsuppressed HIV (0.08 vs 0.32) but lowest among people without HIV (0.03). Test positivity was highest among young adults (aged 15-35 years), males of all age groups, and people with unsuppressed HIV. Test positivity was higher for males without laboratory evidence of HIV than those with HIV viral suppression, despite similar individual odds of TB. Our results are an important national baseline characterizing who received TB testing in South Africa. People without evidence of HIV, young adults, and males would benefit from increased TB screening given their lower testing rates and higher test positivity. These high-test positivity groups can be used to guide future expansions of TB screening.

"I was scared dating who would take me with my status?"-Living with HIV in the era of UTT and U = U: A qualitative study in Johannesburg, South Africa.

South Africa rolled out Universal Test-and-Treat (UTT) in 2016, extending treatment eligibility to all persons living with HIV (PLHIV). We sought to understand how PLHIV in Johannesburg, South Africa, interpret and experience their HIV status, five years into the UTT era. In May 2021, we conducted in-depth interviews (IDI) (N = 27) with adult (≥18 years) PLHIV referred by HIV counsellors at three peri-urban primary healthcare clinics. We also conducted three focus group discussions (FGDs) (N = 27) with adult PLHIV recruited from clinics or from civil society organisations through snowball sampling. Follow-up interviews were conducted with 29 IDI and FGD participants. Participants were asked to reflect on their HIV diagnosis, what their HIV status meant to them and how, if at all, being HIV-positive affected their lives. Interviews and focus group discussions were audio-recorded, transcribed, translated to English, and analysed using a grounded theory approach. Participants perceived that HIV was common, that PLHIV could live a normal life with antiretroviral therapy (ART), and that ART was widely accessible. However, HIV elicited feelings of guilt and shame as a sexually transmitted disease. Participants used the language of "blame" in discussing HIV transmission, citing their own reckless behaviour or blaming their partner for infecting them. Participants feared transmitting HIV to others and felt responsible for avoiding transmission. To manage transmission anxiety, participants avoided sexual relationships, chose HIV-positive partners, and/or insisted on using condoms. Many participants feared-or had previously experienced-rejection by partners due to their HIV status and reported hiding their medication, avoiding disclosure, or avoiding relationships altogether. Most participants were not aware that undetectable HIV is untransmittable (U = U). Participants who were aware of U = U expressed less anxiety about transmitting HIV to others and greater confidence in having relationships. Despite perceiving HIV as a manageable chronic condition, PLHIV still faced transmission anxiety and fears of rejection by their partners. Disseminating information on U = U could reduce the psychosocial burdens of living with HIV, encourage open communication with partners, and remove barriers to HIV testing and treatment adherence.

Health systems performance for hypertension control using a cascade of care approach in South Africa, 2011-2017.

Hypertension is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality. In South Africa, the government has employed a whole systems approach to address the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. We used a novel incident care cascade approach to measure changes in the South African health system's ability to manage hypertension between 2011 and 2017. We used data from Waves 1-5 of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) to estimate trends in the hypertension care cascade and unmet treatment need across four successive cohorts with incident hypertension. We used a negative binomial regression to identify factors that may predict higher rates of hypertension control, controlling for socio-demographic and healthcare factors. In 2011, 19.6% (95%CI 14.2, 26.2) of individuals with incident hypertension were diagnosed, 15.4% (95%CI 10.8, 21.4) were on treatment and 7.1% had controlled blood pressure. By 2017, the proportion of individuals with diagnosed incident hypertension had increased to 24.4% (95%CI 15.9, 35.4). Increases in treatment (23.3%, 95%CI 15.0, 34.3) and control (22.1%, 95%CI 14.1, 33.0) were also observed, translating to a decrease in unmet need for hypertension care from 92.9% in 2011 to 77.9% in 2017. Multivariable regression showed that participants with incident hypertension in 2017 were 3.01 (95%CI 1.77, 5.13) times more likely to have a controlled blood pressure compared to those in 2011. Our data show that while substantial improvements in the hypertension care cascade occurred between 2011 and 2017, a large burden of unmet need remains. The greatest losses in the incident hypertension care cascades came before diagnosis. Nevertheless, whole system programming will be needed to sufficiently address significant morbidity and mortality related to having an elevated blood pressure.

What was the impact of tobacco taxes on smoking prevalence and coronary heart disease mortality in the United States -2005-2016, and did it vary by race and gender?

Tobacco taxes have reduced smoking and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, yet few studies have examined heterogeneity of these associations by race and gender. We constructed a yearly panel (2005-2016) that included age-adjusted cigarette smoking prevalence and CHD mortality rates across all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research. We examined associations between changes in total cigarette excise taxes (i.e., federal and state) and changes in smoking prevalence and CHD mortality, using linear regression models with state and year fixed effects. Each dollar of tobacco tax was associated with a reduction in age-adjusted smoking prevalence 1 year later of -0.4 [95% CIs: -0.6, -0.2] percentage points; and a relative reduction in the rate of CHD mortality 2 years later of -2.0% [95% CIs: -3.7%, -0.3%], or -5 deaths/100,000 in absolute terms. Associations between tobacco taxes and smoking prevalence were statistically significantly different by race and gender and were strongest among Black non-Hispanic women (-1.2 [95% CIs: -1.6, -0.8] percentage points). Associations between tobacco taxes and CHD mortality were not statistically significantly different by race and gender, but point estimates for percent changes were highest among Black non-Hispanic men (-2.9%) and Black non-Hispanic women (-3.5%) compared to White non-Hispanic men (-1.8%) and White non-Hispanic women (-1.5%). These findings suggest that tobacco taxation is an effective intervention for reducing smoking prevalence and CHD mortality among White and Black non-Hispanic populations in the United States.

Missing Americans: Early death in the United States-1933-2021.

We assessed how many US deaths would have been averted each year, 1933-2021, if US age-specific mortality rates had equaled the average of 21 other wealthy nations. We refer to these excess US deaths as "missing Americans." The United States had lower mortality rates than peer countries in the 1930s-1950s and similar mortality in the 1960s and 1970s. Beginning in the 1980s, however, the United States began experiencing a steady increase in the number of missing Americans, reaching 622,534 in 2019 alone. Excess US deaths surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 1,009,467 in 2020 and 1,090,103 in 2021. Excess US mortality was particularly pronounced for persons under 65 years. In 2020 and 2021, half of all US deaths under 65 years and 90% of the increase in under-65 mortality from 2019 to 2021 would have been avoided if the United States had the mortality rates of its peers. In 2021, there were 26.4 million years of life lost due to excess US mortality relative to peer nations, and 49% of all missing Americans died before age 65. Black and Native Americans made up a disproportionate share of excess US deaths, although the majority of missing Americans were White.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022.

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the COVID-19 pandemic's mortality impact. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating factors, and inform response efforts. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,179,024 excess deaths occurred during the first 2 years of the pandemic (first: 634,830; second: 544,194). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties but increased in nonmetropolitan counties. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeastern counties, nonmetropolitan Southern counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality by July 2021. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's rural impact grows.

Record linkage without patient identifiers: proof of concept using data from South Africa's national HIV program.

Background: Linkage between health databases typically requires identifiers such as patient names and personal identification numbers. We developed and validated a record linkage strategy to combine administrative health databases without the use of patient identifiers, with application to South Africa's public sector HIV treatment program. Methods: We linked CD4 counts and HIV viral loads from South Africa's HIV clinical monitoring database (TIER.Net) and the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) for patients receiving care between 2015-2019 in Ekurhuleni District (Gauteng Province). We used a combination of variables related to lab results contained in both databases (result value; specimen collection date; facility of collection; patient year and month of birth; and sex). Exact matching linked on exact linking variable values while caliper matching applied exact matching with linkage on approximate test dates (± 5 days). We then developed a sequential linkage approach utilising specimen barcode matching, then exact matching, and lastly caliper matching. Performance measures were sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV); share of patients linked across databases; and percent increase in data points for each linkage approach. Results: We attempted to link 2,017,290 lab results from TIER.Net (representing 523,558 unique patients) and 2,414,059 lab results from the NHLS database. Linkage performance was evaluated using specimen barcodes (available for a minority of records in TIER.net) as a "gold standard". Exact matching achieved a sensitivity of 69.0% and PPV of 95.1%. Caliper-matching achieved a sensitivity of 75.7% and PPV of 94.5%. In sequential linkage, we matched 41.9% of TIER.Net labs by specimen barcodes, 51.3% by exact matching, and 6.8% by caliper matching, for a total of 71.9% of labs matched, with PPV=96.8% and Sensitivity = 85.9%. The sequential approach linked 86.0% of TIER.Net patients with at least one lab result to the NHLS database (N=1,450,087). Linkage to the NHLS Cohort increased the number of laboratory results associated with TIER.Net patients by 62.6%. Conclusions: Linkage of TIER.Net and NHLS without patient identifiers attained high accuracy and yield without compromising patient privacy. The integrated cohort provides a more complete view of patients' lab history and could yield more accurate estimates of HIV program indicators.

Community Health, Health Care Access, And COVID-19 Booster Uptake In Massachusetts.

Booster vaccination offers vital protection against COVID-19, particularly for communities in which many people have chronic conditions. Although vaccination has been widely and freely available, people who have experienced barriers to care might be deterred from being vaccinated. We examined the relationship between COVID-19 booster uptake and small area-level demographics, chronic disease prevalence, and measures of health care access in 462 Massachusetts communities during the period September 2021-April 2022. Unadjusted analyses found that booster uptake was higher in older and wealthier areas, lower in areas with more Hispanic and Black residents, and lower in areas with a high prevalence of chronic conditions. In both unadjusted and adjusted analyses, uptake was lower in communities with more uninsured residents and those in which fewer residents received routine medical check-ups. Adjusted analyses found that areas with more vaccine providers and primary care physicians had higher booster uptake, but this association was not significant in unadjusted analyses. Results suggest a need for innovative outreach efforts, as well as structural changes such as expansion of health care coverage and universal access to care to mitigate the inequitable burden of COVID-19.

Does engagement in HIV care affect screening, diagnosis, and control of noncommunicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective: Low- and middle-income countries are facing a growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Providing HIV treatment may also provide opportunities to increase access to NCD services in under-resourced environments. We sought to investigate whether reported use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated with increased screening, diagnosis, treatment, and/or control of diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, or cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV (PLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We searched 10 electronic literature databases for studies published between 01 January 2011 and 31 December 2022 using a comprehensive search strategy. We sought studies reporting on screening, diagnosis, treatment, and/or control of NCDs of interest by ART use among non-pregnant adults with HIV ≥16 years of age in SSA. Random effects models were used to calculate summary odds ratios (ORs) of the risk of diagnosis by ART status and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), where appropriate. Results: Twenty-six studies, describing 13,570 PLWH in SSA, 61% of whom were receiving ART, were included. ART use was associated with a small but imprecise increase in the odds of diabetes diagnosis (OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.71, 1.60) and an increase in the odds of hypertension diagnosis (OR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.42, 3.09). We found minimal data on the association between ART use and screening, treatment, or control of NCDs. Conclusion: Despite a potentially higher NCD risk among PLWH and regional efforts to integrate NCD and HIV care, evidence to support effective care integration models is lacking.

Cross-municipality migration and spread of tuberculosis in South Africa.

Human migration facilitates the spread of infectious disease. However, little is known about the contribution of migration to the spread of tuberculosis in South Africa. We analyzed longitudinal data on all tuberculosis test results recorded by South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), January 2011-July 2017, alongside municipality-level migration flows estimated from the 2016 South African Community Survey. We first assessed migration patterns in people with laboratory-diagnosed tuberculosis and analyzed demographic predictors. We then quantified the impact of cross-municipality migration on tuberculosis incidence in municipality-level regression models. The NHLS database included 921,888 patients with multiple clinic visits with TB tests. Of these, 147,513 (16%) had tests in different municipalities. The median (IQR) distance travelled was 304 (163 to 536) km. Migration was most common at ages 20-39 years and rates were similar for men and women. In municipality-level regression models, each 1% increase in migration-adjusted tuberculosis prevalence was associated with a 0.47% (95% CI: 0.03% to 0.90%) increase in the incidence of drug-susceptible tuberculosis two years later, even after controlling for baseline prevalence. Similar results were found for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Accounting for migration improved our ability to predict future incidence of tuberculosis.

Inequities in COVID-19 vaccine and booster coverage across Massachusetts ZIP codes after the emergence of Omicron: A population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Inequities in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine and booster coverage may contribute to future disparities in morbidity and mortality within and between Massachusetts (MA) communities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of primary series vaccination and booster coverage 18 months into the general population vaccine rollout. We obtained public-use data on residents vaccinated and boosted by ZIP code (and by age group: 5 to 19, 20 to 39, 40 to 64, 65+) from MA Department of Public Health, as of October 10, 2022. We constructed population denominators for postal ZIP codes by aggregating census tract population estimates from the 2015-2019 American Community Survey. We excluded nonresidential ZIP codes and the smallest ZIP codes containing 1% of the state's population. We mapped variation in ZIP code-level primary series vaccine and booster coverage and used regression models to evaluate the association of these measures with ZIP code-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Because age is strongly associated with COVID-19 severity and vaccine access/uptake, we assessed whether observed socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities persisted after adjusting for age composition and plotted age-specific vaccine and booster coverage by deciles of ZIP code characteristics. We analyzed data on 418 ZIP codes. We observed wide geographic variation in primary series vaccination and booster rates, with marked inequities by ZIP code-level education, median household income, essential worker share, and racial/ethnic composition. In age-stratified analyses, primary series vaccine coverage was very high among the elderly. However, we found large inequities in vaccination rates among younger adults and children, and very large inequities in booster rates for all age groups. In multivariable regression models, each 10 percentage point increase in "percent college educated" was associated with a 5.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.3, p < 0.001) percentage point increase in primary series vaccine coverage and a 5.4 (95% CI 4.5 to 6.4, p < 0.001) percentage point increase in booster coverage. Although ZIP codes with higher "percent Black/Latino/Indigenous" and higher "percent essential workers" had lower vaccine coverage (-0.8, 95% CI -1.3 to -0.3, p < 0.01; -5.5, 95% CI -7.3 to -3.8, p < 0.001), these associations became strongly positive after adjusting for age and education (1.9, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.8, p < 0.001; 4.8, 95% CI 2.6 to 7.1, p < 0.001), consistent with high demand for vaccines among Black/Latino/Indigenous and essential worker populations within age and education groups. Strong positive associations between "median household income" and vaccination were attenuated after adjusting for age. Limitations of the study include imprecision of the estimated population denominators, lack of individual-level sociodemographic data, and potential for residential ZIP code misreporting in vaccination data. CONCLUSIONS: Eighteen months into MA's general population vaccine rollout, there remained large inequities in COVID-19 primary series vaccine and booster coverage across MA ZIP codes, particularly among younger age groups. Disparities in vaccination coverage by racial/ethnic composition were statistically explained by differences in age and education levels, which may mediate the effects of structural racism on vaccine uptake. Efforts to increase booster coverage are needed to limit future socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

The effect of population-based blood pressure screening on long-term cardiometabolic morbidity and mortality in Germany: A regression discontinuity analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension represents one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality globally. Early detection and treatment of this condition is vital to prevent complications. However, hypertension often goes undetected, and even if detected, not every patient receives adequate treatment. Identifying simple and effective interventions is therefore crucial to fight this problem and allow more patients to receive the treatment they need. Therefore, we aim at investigating the impact of a population-based blood pressure (BP) screening and the subsequent "low-threshold" information treatment on long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined the impact of a BP screening embedded in a population-based cohort study in Germany and subsequent personalized "light touch" information treatment, including a hypertension diagnosis and a recommendation to seek medical attention. We pooled four waves of the KORA study, carried out between 1984 and 1996 (N = 14,592). Using a sharp multivariate regression discontinuity (RD) design, we estimated the impact of the information treatment on CVD mortality and morbidity over 16.9 years. Additionally, we investigated potential intermediate outcomes, such as hypertension awareness, BP, and behavior after 7 years. No evidence of effect of BP screening was observed on CVD mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.172 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.725, 1.896]) or on any (fatal or nonfatal) long-term CVD event (HR = 1.022 [0.636, 1.641]) for individuals just above (versus below) the threshold for hypertension. Stratification for previous self-reported diagnosis of hypertension at baseline did not reveal any differential effect. The intermediate outcomes, including awareness of hypertension, were also unaffected by the information treatment. However, these results should be interpreted with caution since the analysis might not be sufficiently powered to detect a potential intervention effect. CONCLUSIONS: The study does not provide evidence of an effect of the assessed BP screening and subsequent information treatment on BP, health behavior, or long-term CVD mortality and morbidity. Future studies should consider larger datasets to detect possible effects and a shorter follow-up for the intermediate outcomes (i.e., BP and behavior) to detect short-, medium-, and long-term effects of the intervention along the causal pathway.

Cohort profile: the South African National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort.

PURPOSE: South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort was established in 2015 to facilitate monitoring, evaluation and research on South Africa's National HIV Treatment Programme. In South Africa, 84.8% of people living with HIV know their HIV status; 70.7% who know their status are on ART; and 87.4% on ART are virologically suppressed. PARTICIPANTS: The NHLS National HIV Cohort includes the laboratory data of nearly all patients receiving HIV care in the public sector since April 2004. Patients are included in the cohort if they have received a CD4 count or HIV RNA viral load (VL) test. Using an anonymised unique patient identifier that we have developed and validated to linked test results, we observe patients prospectively through their laboratory results as they receive HIV care and treatment. Patients in HIV care are seen for laboratory monitoring every 6-12 months. Data collected include age, sex, facility location and test results for CD4 counts, VLs and laboratory tests used to screen for potential treatment complications. FINDINGS TO DATE: From April 2004 to April 2018, 63 million CD4 count and VL tests were conducted at 5483 facilities. 12.6 million unique patients had at least one CD4 count or VL, indicating they had accessed HIV care, and 7.1 million patients had a VL test indicating they had started antiretroviral therapy. The creation of NHLS National HIV Cohort has enabled longitudinal research on all lab-monitored patients in South Africa's national HIV programme, including analyses of (1) patient health at presentation; (2) care outcomes such as 'CD4 recovery', 'retention in care' and 'viral resuppression'; (3) patterns of transfer and re-entry into care; (4) facility-level variation in care outcomes; and (5) impacts of policies and guideline changes. FUTURE PLANS: Continuous updating of the cohort, integration with available clinical data, and expansion to include tuberculosis and other lab-monitored comorbidities.

Applying machine learning and predictive modeling to retention and viral suppression in South African HIV treatment cohorts.

HIV treatment programs face challenges in identifying patients at risk for loss-to-follow-up and uncontrolled viremia. We applied predictive machine learning algorithms to anonymised, patient-level HIV programmatic data from two districts in South Africa, 2016-2018. We developed patient risk scores for two outcomes: (1) visit attendance ≤ 28 days of the next scheduled clinic visit and (2) suppression of the next HIV viral load (VL). Demographic, clinical, behavioral and laboratory data were investigated in multiple models as predictor variables of attending the next scheduled visit and VL results at the next test. Three classification algorithms (logistical regression, random forest and AdaBoost) were evaluated for building predictive models. Data were randomly sampled on a 70/30 split into a training and test set. The training set included a balanced set of positive and negative examples from which the classification algorithm could learn. The predictor variable data from the unseen test set were given to the model, and each predicted outcome was scored against known outcomes. Finally, we estimated performance metrics for each model in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value and area under the curve (AUC). In total, 445,636 patients were included in the retention model and 363,977 in the VL model. The predictive metric (AUC) ranged from 0.69 for attendance at the next scheduled visit to 0.76 for VL suppression, suggesting that the model correctly classified whether a scheduled visit would be attended in 2 of 3 patients and whether the VL result at the next test would be suppressed in approximately 3 of 4 patients. Variables that were important predictors of both outcomes included prior late visits, number of prior VL tests, time since their last visit, number of visits on their current regimen, age, and treatment duration. For retention, the number of visits at the current facility and the details of the next appointment date were also predictors, while for VL suppression, other predictors included the range of the previous VL value. Machine learning can identify HIV patients at risk for disengagement and unsuppressed VL. Predictive modeling can improve the targeting of interventions through differentiated models of care before patients disengage from treatment programmes, increasing cost-effectiveness and improving patient outcomes.

Local Supply Of Postdischarge Care Options Tied To Hospital Readmission Rates.

The extent to which patients' risk for readmission after a hospitalization is influenced by local availability of postdischarge care options is not currently known. We used national, hospital-level data to assess whether the supply of postdischarge care options in hospitals' catchment areas was associated with readmission rates for Medicare patients after hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia. Overall, readmission rates were negatively associated with per capita supply of primary care physicians (-0.16 percentage points per standard deviation) and licensed nursing home beds (-0.09 percentage points per standard deviation). In contrast, readmission rates were positively associated with per capita supply of nurse practitioners (0.09 percentage points per standard deviation). Our results suggest potential modifications to the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program to account for local health system characteristics when assigning penalties to hospitals.