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2.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(12): e0002679, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38091336

ABSTRACT

Brazil was one of the countries most affected during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a pre-vaccine era, and mathematical and statistical models were used in decision-making and public policies to mitigate and suppress SARS-CoV-2 dispersion. In this article, we intend to overview the modeling for COVID-19 in Brazil, focusing on the first 18 months of the pandemic. We conducted a scoping review and searched for studies on infectious disease modeling methods in peer-reviewed journals and gray literature, published between January 01, 2020, and June 2, 2021, reporting real-world or scenario-based COVID-19 modeling for Brazil. We included 81 studies, most corresponding to published articles produced in Brazilian institutions. The models were dynamic and deterministic in the majority. The predominant model type was compartmental, but other models were also found. The main modeling objectives were to analyze epidemiological scenarios (testing interventions' effectiveness) and to project short and long-term predictions, while few articles performed economic impact analysis. Estimations of the R0 and transmission rates or projections regarding the course of the epidemic figured as major, especially at the beginning of the crisis. However, several other outputs were forecasted, such as the isolation/quarantine effect on transmission, hospital facilities required, secondary cases caused by infected children, and the economic effects of the pandemic. This study reveals numerous articles with shared objectives and similar methods and data sources. We observed a deficiency in addressing social inequities in the Brazilian context within the utilized models, which may also be expected in several low- and middle-income countries with significant social disparities. We conclude that the models were of great relevance in the pandemic scenario of COVID-19. Nevertheless, efforts could be better planned and executed with improved institutional organization, dialogue among research groups, increased interaction between modelers and epidemiologists, and establishment of a sustainable cooperation network.

3.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(11): e0002493, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37948353

ABSTRACT

This study aims to assess the progress of geographic, socioeconomic, and demographic disparities in Covid-19 vaccination coverage in Brazil over the first two years of the vaccination campaign. Data from the National Immunization Program Information System were used to estimate covid-19 vaccine coverage. Brazilian municipalities were divided into two groups based on their vaccine coverage for the booster dose. The first group comprised 20% of municipalities with the lowest coverage, while the second group (80% of municipalities) had higher coverage. The analysis was conducted separately for four age groups: 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, and 60+. Explanatory variables included socioeconomic and health services indicators. Crude and adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of a municipality being among those with the worst vaccination coverage according to the categories of exploratory variables. Between January/2021 and December/2022, Brazil administered 448.2 million doses of the covid-19 vaccine. The booster vaccination coverage varied from 24.8% among adolescents to 79.7% among the elderly. The difference between the group with the highest and lowest coverage increased during the national vaccination campaign. Municipalities with lower education levels, higher proportion of Black population, higher Gini index, and worse health service indicators had a greater likelihood of having lower vaccination coverage. High and increasing levels of inequality in Covid-19 vaccination were observed in Brazil across all age groups during the vaccination campaign in 2021-2022.

4.
Trop Anim Health Prod ; 55(6): 397, 2023 Nov 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37934323

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between age, scrotal circumference, postweaning weight and semen quality in Nellore and Caracu bulls selected for postweaning weight. Data from the andrological evaluation of 836 bulls born between 2000 and 2019, including 583 Nellore animals (Bos indicus) and 253 Caracu animals (Bos taurus), were used. The bulls were divided into categories of age at the time of assessment: category 1 consisted of animals aged 20 to 23 months (22 ± 0.76 months, 518 ± 94.17 kg), category 2 consisted of animals aged 24 to 35 months (30 ± 4.42 months, 679 ± 137.19 kg), and category 3 consisted of animals ≥ 36 months (60 ± 14.12 months, 907 ± 161.73 kg). The statistical model included the effects of breed, age category, date of semen collection, and breed x age category interaction. Heritability estimates for scrotal circumference at 13 months of age (SC1year) and semen quality traits were obtained for the sample of Nellore animals. Most semen quality traits improved with increasing age in both Nellore and Caracu animals. High heritability was observed for SC1year (0.45), while sperm motility, vigor, turbulence, and major, minor and total sperm defects exhibited low heritability (0.11, 0.019, 0.047, 0.017, 0.017 and 0.019, respectively). Spearman correlations of breeding values for postweaning weight (W378) and SC1year with the semen quality traits were low. Nellore and Caracu bulls have similar semen quality that improves with increasing age. In the Nellore breed, the heritability of SC is high, while semen quality traits exhibit low heritability. Selection for higher postweaning weight does not phenotypically affect the semen quality of bulls at breeding age.


Subject(s)
Semen Analysis , Sperm Motility , Male , Cattle , Animals , Semen Analysis/veterinary , Cross-Sectional Studies , Semen , Models, Statistical
5.
One Health ; 17: 100581, 2023 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37332885

ABSTRACT

The recent geographic spread of Leishmania infantum along the borders of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay has been highlighted. In our previous study, Lutzomyia longipalpis was found in 55 of 123 patches surveyed, and in some patches, sandflies were found at higher densities, forming hotspots. Based on the One Health approach, we investigated the seasonality of the vector, the presence of parasite DNA, and the environmental factors that contribute to vector and parasite dispersal in these previously described hotspots in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. Entomological surveys were conducted monthly for one year. Fourteen hotspots peridomicile and six intradomicile were sampled. PCR was used to assess the prevalence of Leishmania DNA in sandflies. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to determine the association of micro- and mesoscale environmental variables with the occurrence and abundance of the three most abundant sandfly species sampled. A total of 3543 species were captured, with Lutzomyia longipalpis being the predominant species (71.78%) of the 13 species found. Evandromyia edwardsi, Expapillata firmatoi, Micropygomyia ferreirana and Pintomyia christenseni were reported for the first time in the region. NDVI, distance to water, precipitation, west-to-east wind, wind speed, maximum and minimum relative humidity, and sex were significant variables associated with vector presence/abundance in the environment. Vector presence/abundance in the peridomicile was associated with precipitation, altitude, maximum temperature, minimum and maximum relative humidity, west-to-east wind, wind speed, and sex. Leishmania DNA was detected in an average of 21% of Lu. longipalpis throughout the year. Vector abundance is concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas, with some specimens present in different parts of the city and some sites with high vector abundance. This distribution suggests that the risk of actual contact between humans and parasite vectors in urban areas during the epidemic period is associated with patches of peri-urban vegetation and then extends into urban areas.

6.
Vaccine ; 41(26): 3937-3945, 2023 06 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37221119

ABSTRACT

Vaccination is crucial for reducing severe COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. However, vaccine access disparities within countries, particularly in low- and middle-income nations, may leave disadvantaged regions and populations behind. This study aimed to investigate potential inequalities in vaccine coverage among Brazilian aged 18 years and older based on demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic characteristics at the municipal level. A total of 389 million vaccination records from the National Immunization Program Information System were analyzed to calculate vaccine coverage rates for the first, second, and booster doses among adults (18-59 years) and elderly (60 + years) vaccinated between January 2021 and December 2022. We analyzed the data by gender and used a three-level (municipalities, states, regions) multilevel regression analysis to assess the association between vaccine coverage and municipal characteristics. Vaccination coverage was higher among the elderly than among adults, particularly for the second and booster doses. Adult women showed higher coverage rates than men (ranging from 118 % to 25 % higher along the analyzed period). Significant inequalities were observed when analyzing the evolution of vaccination coverage by sociodemographic characteristics of municipalities. In the early stages of the vaccination campaign, municipalities with higher per capita Gross Domestic Product (pGDP), educational level, and fewer Black residents reached higher population coverages earlier. In December 2022, adult and elderly booster vaccine coverage was 43 % and 19 %, respectively, higher in municipalities in the highest quintile of educational level. Higher vaccine uptake was also observed in municipalities with fewer Black residents and higher pGDP. Municipalities accounted for most of the variance in vaccine coverage (59.7 %-90.4 % depending on the dose and age group). This study emphasizes the inadequate booster coverage and the presence of socioeconomic and demographic disparities in COVID-19 vaccination rates. These issues must be addressed through equitable interventions to avoid potential disparities in morbidity and mortality.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Male , Aged , Humans , Adult , Female , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19 Vaccines , Vaccination
7.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 17: 100396, 2023 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36437904

ABSTRACT

Background: Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5-11 years of age, very few countries recommended vaccination due to limited risk-benefit evidence for vaccination of this population. In Brazil, ranking second in the global COVID-19 death toll, the childhood COVID-19 disease burden increased significantly in early 2022. This prompted a risk-benefit assessment of the introduction and scaling-up of COVID-19 vaccination of children. Methods: To estimate the potential impact of vaccinating children aged 5-11 years with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine in the context of omicron dominance, we developed a discrete-time SEIR-like model stratified in age groups, considering a three-month time horizon. We considered three scenarios: No vaccination, slow, and maximum vaccination paces. In each scenario, we estimated the potential reduction in total COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, hospitalization costs, and potential years of life lost, considering the absence of vaccination as the base-case scenario. Findings: We estimated that vaccinating at a maximum pace could prevent, between mid-January and April 2022, about 26,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 4200 deaths in all age groups; of which 5400 hospitalizations and 410 deaths in children aged 5-11 years. Continuing vaccination at a slow/current pace would prevent 1450 deaths and 9700 COVID-19 hospitalizations in all age groups in this same time period; of which 180 deaths and 2390 hospitalizations in children only. Interpretation: Maximum vaccination of children results in a significant reduction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and should be enforced in developing countries with significant disease incidence in children. Funding: This manuscript was funded by the Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technology Development (CNPq - Process # 402834/2020-8).

8.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 17: 100397, 2023 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36439909

ABSTRACT

Background: Vaccines developed between 2020 and 2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to diminish the severity and prevent deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalisations averted by vaccination of older adults (above 60 years old) in Brazil. Methods: We fit a linear model to predict the number of deaths and hospitalisations of older adults as a function of vaccination coverage in this group and casualties in younger adults. We used this model in a counterfactual analysis, simulating alternative scenarios without vaccination or with faster vaccination roll-out. We estimated the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination by computing the difference between hypothetical and realised scenarios. Findings: We estimated that more than 165,000 individuals above 60 years of age were not hospitalised due to COVID-19 in the first seven months of the vaccination campaign. An additional contingent of 104,000 hospitalisations could have been averted if vaccination had started earlier. We also estimated that more than 58 thousand lives were saved by vaccinations in the period analysed for the same age group and that an additional 47 thousand lives could have been saved had the Brazilian government started the vaccination programme earlier. Interpretation: Our estimates provided a lower bound for vaccination impacts in Brazil, demonstrating the importance of preventing the suffering and loss of older Brazilian adults. Once vaccines were approved, an early vaccination roll-out could have saved many more lives, especially when facing a pandemic. Funding: The Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brazil (Finance Code 001 to F.M.D.M. and L.S.F.), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - Brazil (grant number: 315854/2020-0 to M.E.B., 141698/2018-7 to R.L.P.d.S., 313055/2020-3 to P.I.P., 311832/2017-2 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo - Brazil (contract number: 2016/01343-7 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - Brazil (grant number: E-26/201.277/2021 to L.S.B.) and Inova Fiocruz/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Brazil (grant number: 48401485034116) to L.S.B., O.G.C. and M.G.d.F.C. The funding agencies had no role in the conceptualization of the study.

9.
Rev. bras. cineantropom. desempenho hum ; 25: e92347, 2023. tab, graf
Article in English | LILACS-Express | LILACS | ID: biblio-1449541

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT Describing the biological, physical fitness and motor coordination profile and its possible associations of these variables with the performance on rhythmic gymnastics (RG) of practitioners of sports initiation. Systematic search of articles carried out from the 20th to the 23rd of July, 2022, on three databases: 1) PubMed; 2) SportDiscus and 3) Google Scholar. The search was conducted through an advanced research tool, from the constructing of descriptors and keywords related to the theme. The selection of descriptors and keywords was performed through consensus of published sources (original and of systematic review articles) and inserted in English language in each database. 10 articles were included in the descriptive summary of data. The greatest part of these studies is of female practitioners, having the data collection in its majority in the European region. The profile of beginner gymnasts was characterized by low values for BMI, BF%, high values for stature, high indexes of flexibility, explosive strength, motor coordination and balance. Flexibility, explosive strength, muscular endurance and high levels of motor coordination were the variables which most presented positive associations with the performance on RG. The values of body mass and skin folds presented a predictive negative power on the success of RG movements. The impact of different variables on the beginner gymnasts' performance evidences the necessity of working physical and motor components in a way that it supports the objects of development of each practitioner considering the biological, physical and motor aspects.


RESUMO Descrever o perfil biológico, de aptidão física e de coordenação motora e compreender as possíveis associações entre essas variáveis com o desempenho na ginástica rítmica (GR) de praticantes de iniciação esportiva. Busca sistemática dos artigos realizada de 20 a 23 de julho de 2022 em três bases de dados: 1) PubMed; 2) SportDiscus e 3) Google Scholar. A busca foi realizada mediante ferramenta de pesquisa avançada, a partir da construção de descritores e palavras-chave relacionadas à temática. A seleção dos descritores e palavras-chave foi realizada por meio de consenso em fontes publicadas (artigos originais e de revisão sistemática) e inseridas na língua inglesa em todas base de dados. 10 artigos foram incluídos na síntese descritiva dos dados. A maior parte destes estudos eram com praticantes do sexo feminino, com coleta de dados realizados na sua maioria na região Europeia. O perfil das ginastas iniciantes foi caracterizado por baixos valores para IMC, %GC, altos valores para estatura, altos índices de flexibilidade, força explosiva, coordenação motora e equilíbrio. A flexibilidade, a força explosiva, a resistência muscular e altos níveis de coordenação motora foram as variáveis que mais apresentaram associações positivas com o desempenho na GR. Já os valores de massa corporal e dobras cutâneas apresentam um poder preditivo negativo no sucesso dos movimentos da GR. O impacto de diferentes variáveis no desempenho de ginastas iniciantes, evidencia a necessidade de trabalhar componentes físicos e motores de modo que atenda os objetos de desenvolvimento de cada praticante considerando os aspectos biológicos, físicos e motores

10.
Anim Reprod Sci ; 247: 107090, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36370601

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to investigate whether parameters obtained by computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA), infrared thermography (IRT), and testicular B-mode and Doppler ultrasound can be used as indicators of fertility in natural service Nellore bulls. Twenty-nine Nellore bulls were evaluated on days 66 (-D66), 38 (-D38), and 10 (-D10) before the beginning of natural service mating. In all assessments, semen samples were collected and sperm kinetics were evaluated by CASA, thermographic imaging of the scrotal and ocular region, testicular B-mode ultrasound, and Doppler ultrasound of the spermatic cord. At the end of natural service, the bulls were classified based on the pregnancy rate of individual batches into low fertility (pregnancy rate 66.57 ± 0.62 %), medium fertility (76.47 ± 0.51 %), and high fertility (84.80 ± 0.60 %) groups. No difference in the IRT parameters was observed between groups. High fertility animals exhibited higher average path velocity (VAP = 110.98 µm/s), straight line velocity (VSL = 87.05 µm/s), curvilinear velocity (VCL = 190.78 µm/s), pulsatility index (PI = 0.93), and resistive index (RI = 0.57) than low fertility animals (VAP = 100.02 µm/s; VSL = 79.84 µm/s; VCL = 173.22 µm/s; PI = 0.69; RI = 0.48). Positive correlations were observed between pregnancy rate and VSL (0.21), PI (0.28) and RI (0.32). In conclusion, IRT does not provide fertility indicators in Nellore bulls. The VAP, VSL and VCL obtained by CASA and PI and RI obtained by Doppler ultrasound can be used as indicators of fertility in Nellore bulls.


Subject(s)
Semen , Sperm Motility , Pregnancy , Female , Male , Cattle , Animals , Spermatozoa , Semen Analysis/veterinary , Fertility
11.
Glob Epidemiol ; 4: 100094, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36404949

ABSTRACT

We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings - school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school environments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission.

12.
Vaccine ; 40(46): 6616-6624, 2022 11 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36210250

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Brazil experienced moments of collapse in its health system throughout 2021, driven by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) combined with an inefficient initial vaccination strategy against Covid-19. OBJECTIVES: To support decision-makers in formulating COVID-19 immunization policy in the context of limited vaccine availability and evolving variants over time, we evaluate optimal strategies for Covid-19 vaccination in Brazil in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out during Gamma variant predominance. METHODS: Using a discrete-time epidemic model we estimate Covid-19 deaths averted, considering the currently Covid-19 vaccine products and doses available in Brazil; vaccine coverage by target population; and vaccine effectiveness estimates. We evaluated a 5-month time horizon, from early August to the end of December 2021. Optimal vaccination strategies compared the outcomes in terms of averted deaths when varying dose intervals from 8 to 12 weeks, and choosing the minimum coverage levels per age group required prior to expanding vaccination to younger target populations. We also estimated dose availability required over time to allow the implementation of optimal strategies. RESULTS: To maximize the number of averted deaths, vaccine coverage of at least 80 % should be reached in older age groups before starting vaccination into subsequent younger age groups. When evaluating varying dose intervals for AZD1222, reducing the dose interval from 12 to 8 weeks for the primary schedule would result in fewer COVID-19 deaths, but this can only be implemented if accompanied by an increase in vaccine supply of at least 50 % over the coming six-months in Brazil. CONCLUSION: Covid-19 immunization strategies should be tailored to local vaccine product availability and supply over time, circulating variants of concern, and vaccine coverage in target population groups. Modelling can provide valuable and timely evidence to support the implementation of vaccination strategies considering the local context, yet following international and regional technical evidence-based guidance.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Humans , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , SARS-CoV-2 , Brazil/epidemiology , ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 , Vaccination
13.
Reprod Domest Anim ; 57(9): 980-988, 2022 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35612981

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of age of Nellore (Bos indicus) donors on the efficiency of in vitro embryo production (IVEP) and pregnancy rate. Thirty-six donors, including 11 female calves (13 ± 0.61 months), 17 prepubertal heifers (25 ± 0.78 months) and 8 cows (83 ± 28 months), were submitted to 3 procedures of ovum pickup (OPU) on random days of the estrous cycle at intervals of 21 days. Caspase-3 and IGFBP2 were quantified in oocytes and blastocysts for the evaluation of oocyte and embryo quality. The produced embryos were vitrified (n = 445) and transferred to synchronized recipients. Cows produced a larger number of follicles (cows: 54.5 ± 6.2; calves: 20.0 ± 0.57; prepubertal heifers: 20.8 ± 0.46), total oocytes (cows: 45.97 ± 7.22; calves: 28.93 ± 6.14; prepubertal heifers: 27.21 ± 4.94) and cleaved oocytes (cows: 21.14 ± 4.22; calves: 13.09 ± 3.72; prepubertal heifers: 12.4 ± 3.19). The cleavage rate was similar between age categories; however, cows tended (p < 0.07) to produce a larger number of blastocysts (9.74 ± 2.26) per OPU than calves (5.57 ± 1.99) and prepubertal heifers tended to have a higher blastocyst yield (35.4%) than calves (27.1%) (p < .07). The expression levels of IGFBP2 and caspase-3 were higher in oocytes derived from calves compared to the other two categories. The pregnancy rate was higher in calves (43.1%) and cows (40.4%) than in prepubertal heifers (33.8%) (p = .03). Despite the larger numbers of follicles and viable oocytes in cows, the blastocyst production results and pregnancy rates obtained indicate that the use of young females as oocyte donors in IVEP is feasible and may contribute to reduce the generation interval.


Subject(s)
Blastocyst , Fertilization in Vitro , Animals , Caspase 3 , Cattle , Female , Fertilization in Vitro/veterinary , Oocytes , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Rate
14.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 18(3): e1009978, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35333872

ABSTRACT

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a major concern all over the world and, as vaccines became available at the end of 2020, optimal vaccination strategies were subjected to intense investigation. Considering their critical role in reducing disease burden, the increasing demand outpacing production, and that most currently approved vaccines follow a two-dose regimen, the cost-effectiveness of delaying the second dose to increment the coverage of the population receiving the first dose is often debated. Finding the best solution is complex due to the trade-off between vaccinating more people with lower level of protection and guaranteeing higher protection to a fewer number of individuals. Here we present a novel extended age-structured SEIR mathematical model that includes a two-dose vaccination schedule with a between-doses delay modelled through delay differential equations and linear optimization of vaccination rates. By maintaining the minimum stock of vaccines under a given production rate, we evaluate the dose interval that minimizes the number of deaths. We found that the best strategy depends on an interplay between the vaccine production rate and the relative efficacy of the first dose. In the scenario of low first-dose efficacy, it is always better to vaccinate the second dose as soon as possible, while for high first-dose efficacy, the best strategy of time window depends on the production rate and also on second-dose efficacy provided by each type of vaccine. We also found that the rate of spread of the infection does not affect significantly the thresholds of the best window, but is an important factor in the absolute number of total deaths. These conclusions point to the need to carefully take into account both vaccine characteristics and roll-out speed to optimize the outcome of vaccination strategies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination
15.
Epidemics ; 39: 100551, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35325705

ABSTRACT

Since the emergence of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), mathematical modelling has become an important tool for planning strategies to combat the pandemic by supporting decision-making and public policies, as well as allowing an assessment of the effect of different intervention scenarios. A proliferation of compartmental models were developed by the mathematical modelling community in order to understand and make predictions about the spread of COVID-19. While compartmental models are suitable for simulating large populations, the underlying assumption of a well-mixed population might be problematic when considering non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which have a major impact on the connectivity between individuals in a population. Here we propose a modification to an extended age-structured SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) framework, with dynamic transmission modelled using contact matrices for various settings in Brazil. By assuming that the mitigation strategies for COVID-19 affect the connections among different households, network percolation theory predicts that the connectivity among all households decreases drastically above a certain threshold of removed connections. We incorporated this emergent effect at population level by modulating home contact matrices through a percolation correction function, with the few additional parameters fitted to hospitalisation and mortality data from the city of São Paulo. Our model with percolation effects was better supported by the data than the same model without such effects. By allowing a more reliable assessment of the impact of NPIs, our improved model provides a better description of the epidemiological dynamics and, consequently, better policy recommendations.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Brazil , COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Fish Physiol Biochem ; 48(2): 337-354, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35149921

ABSTRACT

Antarctica is considered a thermally stable ecosystem; however, climate studies point to increases in water temperatures in this region. These thermal changes may affect the biological processes and promote metabolic changes in the adapted organisms that live in this region, rendering the animals more vulnerable to oxidative damage. This study assessed the effect of acclimation temperature on the levels of stress response markers in plasma, kidney, gill, liver, and brain tissues of Notothenia rossii subjected to gradual temperature changes of 0.5 °C/day until reaching temperatures of 2, 4, 6, and 8 °C. Under the effect of the 0.5 °C/day acclimation rate, gill tissue showed increased glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activity; kidney tissue showed increased H+-ATPase activity. In the liver, there was also an increase in GSH. In plasma, gradual decreases in the concentrations of total proteins and globulins were observed. These responses indicate a higher production of reactive oxygen species ROS, an imbalance in energy demand, and a lack in protein synthesis. Gradual increase in temperature may cause opposite responses to the thermal shock model in N. rossii.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Perciformes , Acclimatization/physiology , Animals , Antarctic Regions , Fishes , Oxidative Stress/physiology , Perciformes/physiology , Temperature
17.
J Evol Biol ; 35(1): 134-145, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34758181

ABSTRACT

Individual behaviour and local context can influence the evolution of ecological interactions and how they structure into networks. In trophic interactions, consumers can increase their fitness by actively choosing resources that they are more likely to explore successfully. Mathematical modelling is often employed in theoretical studies to understand the coevolutionary dynamics between consumers and resources. However, they often disregard the individual consumer behaviour since the complexity of these systems usually requires simplifying assumptions about interaction details. Using an individual-based model, we model a community of several species that interact antagonistically. Each individual has a trait (attack or defence) that is explicitly modelled and the probability of the interaction to occur successfully increases with increased trait-matching. In addition, consumers can actively choose resources that guarantee greater fitness. We show that active consumer choice can generate coevolutionary units over time. It means that the traits of both consumers and resources converge into multiple groups with similar traits and the species interactions stay restricted to these groups over time. We also observed that network structure is more dependent on the parameter that delimits active consumer choice than on the intensity of selective pressure. Thus, our results support the idea that consumer active choice behaviour plays an important role in the ecological and evolutionary processes that structure interacting communities.


Subject(s)
Biological Evolution , Consumer Behavior , Choice Behavior , Models, Theoretical , Phenotype
18.
Rev Bras Epidemiol ; 24: e210022, 2021.
Article in English, Portuguese | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34105594

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain called P.1, which is more transmissible and may be associated with reinfection. Given the collapse of hospital care in Manaus in January 2021 and the results of three recent preprints, each that reports increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant, we propose some urgent measures. Genomic surveillance based on multi-step diagnostics, starting with RT-PCR type tests and up to sequencing, should be established. Efforts to identify reinfections associated with this variant and the update of its definition in protocols should be prioritized, and studies on the efficacy of currently available vaccines in Brazil concerning the new variant should be conducted. We also propose improving the Brazilian health surveillance system such that genomic surveillance is coordinated and thereby better able to respond to future emergencies in a more timely fashion. We call on the public agents involved in health surveillance to share data and information regarding the epidemic in a clear, fast and transparent way. Finally, we propose a greater engagement in inter-institutional cooperation of all those involved in the response and production of knowledge about the pandemic in our country.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Brazil/epidemiology , Emergencies , Humans , Public Health
19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33799740

ABSTRACT

Approximately 90% of the world's population is involved in some spiritual/religious practice, and this dimension has a relevant role in life. Many studies demonstrate the associations between spirituality/religiosity (S/R), and physical, mental, and social health. Systematic reviews have indicated positive associations; however, the mechanisms behind religious coping are not fully understood. The present study aimed to examine the role of religious affiliation in general (ordinary) and health-related decisions. A nationwide, population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in Brazil using a self-administered online survey. How much religious affiliation influences decision making was investigated. A total of 1133 participants were included, who were classified as Catholics (43.9%), Evangelicals (18.7%), spiritualists (12.8%), non-religious (11.9%), and others (12.7%). Most participants (66.5%) believed that their religious affiliations had moderate to high influences on their decisions. Participants rated the influence as high in marriage (62.7%), in donations (60.1%), in volunteering (55%), in friendships (53.9%), and in work (50.5%). Concerning health-related decisions, the influence was rated as high in drug use (45.2%), in accepting medical recommendations (45%), and in smoking (43.2%). The influence of religious affiliation on general decision making was significantly correlated for dietary restrictions (r = 0.462), alcohol consumption (r = 0.458), drug use (r = 0.441), tobacco consumption (r = 0.456), and refusal of medical recommendations (r = 0.314). Improving the understanding of how a patient's beliefs, practices, and experiences affect their health may help healthcare practitioners to take into account religious considerations, not only regarding influences on habits but also regarding adherence to medical treatment advice.


Subject(s)
Religion , Spirituality , Brazil , Cross-Sectional Studies , Decision Making , Humans , Surveys and Questionnaires
20.
A A Pract ; 15(3): e01392, 2021 Mar 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33687347

ABSTRACT

Ventilator shortages occurred due to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). This in vitro study evaluated the effectiveness of 3-dimensional (3D)-printed splitters and 3D-printed air flow limiters (AFL) in delivering appropriate tidal volumes (TV) to lungs with different compliances. Groups were divided according to the size of the AFL: AFL-4 was a 4-mm device, AFL-5 a 5-mm device, AFL-6 a 6-mm device, and no limiter (control). A ventilator was split to supply TV to 2 artificial lungs with different compliances. The AFL improved TV distribution.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Emergency Medical Services/methods , Lung Compliance/physiology , Printing, Three-Dimensional , Ventilators, Mechanical/supply & distribution , Humans , Lung/physiology , Male , Tidal Volume/physiology
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