External validation of the 2-year mortality prediction tool in hemodialysis patients developed using a Bayesian network.

Background: In recent years, a number of predictive models have appeared to predict the risk of medium-term mortality in hemodialysis patients, but only one, limited to patients aged over 70 years, has undergone sufficiently powerful external validation. Recently, using a national learning database and an innovative approach based on Bayesian networks and 14 carefully selected predictors, we have developed a clinical prediction tool to predict all-cause mortality at 2 years in all incident hemodialysis patients. In order to generalize the results of this tool and propose its use in routine clinical practice, we carried out an external validation using an independent external validation database. Methods: A regional, multicenter, observational, retrospective cohort study was conducted to externally validate the tool for predicting 2-year all-cause mortality in incident and prevalent hemodialysis patients. This study recruited a total of 142 incident and 697 prevalent adult hemodialysis patients followed up in one of the eight Association pour l'Utilisation du Rein Artificiel dans la région Lyonnaise (AURAL) Alsace dialysis centers. Results: In incident patients, the 2-year all-cause mortality prediction tool had an area under the receiver curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.73, an accuracy of 65%, a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. In prevalent patients, the performance for the external validation were similar in terms of AUC-ROC, accuracy and specificity, but was lower in term of sensitivity. Conclusion: The tool for predicting all-cause mortality at 2 years, developed using a Bayesian network and 14 routinely available explanatory variables, obtained satisfactory external validation in incident patients, but sensitivity was insufficient in prevalent patients.

Cardiac Rhythm Disturbances in Hemodialysis Patients: Early Detection Using an Implantable Loop Recorder and Correlation With Biological and Dialysis Parameters.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify using implantable loop recorder (ILR) monitoring the mechanisms leading to sudden death (SD) in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD). BACKGROUND: SD accounts for 11% to 25% of death in HD patients. METHODS: Continuous rhythm monitoring was performed using the remote monitoring capability of the ILR device in patients undergoing HD at 8 centers. Clinical, biological, and technical HD parameters were recorded and analyzed. RESULTS: Seventy-one patients (mean age 65 ± 9 years, 73% men) were included. Left ventricular ejection fraction was <50% in 16%. Twelve patients (17%) had histories of atrial fibrillation or flutter at inclusion. During a mean follow-up period of 21.3 ± 6.9 months, 16 patients died (14% patient-years), 7 (44%) of cardiovascular causes. Four SDs occurred, with progressive bradycardia followed by asystole. The incidence of patients presenting with significant conduction disorder and with ventricular arrhythmia was 14% and 9% patient-years, respectively. In multivariate survival frailty analyses, a higher risk for conduction disorder was associated with plasma potassium >5.0 mmol/l, bicarbonate <22 mmol/l, hemoglobin >11.5 g/dl, pre-HD systolic blood pressure >140 mm Hg, the longer interdialytic period, history of coronary artery disease, previous other arrhythmias, and diabetes mellitus. A higher risk for ventricular arrhythmia was associated with potassium <4.0 mmol/l, no antiarrhythmic drugs, and previous other arrhythmias. With ILR monitoring, de novo atrial fibrillation or flutter was diagnosed in 14 patients (20%). CONCLUSIONS: ILR may be considered in HD patients prone to significant conduction disorders, ventricular arrhythmia, or atrial fibrillation or flutter to allow early identification and initiation of adequate treatment. Therapeutic strategies reducing serum potassium variability could decrease the rate of SD in these patients. (Implantable Loop Recorder in Hemodialysis Patients [RYTHMODIAL]; NCT01252823).

Prognosis of patients with severe hyponatraemia is related not only to hyponatraemia but also to comorbidities and to medical management: results of an observational retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The true cause of death in severe hyponatraemic patients remains controversial. The present study aimed to analyse the relationship between comorbidity, medical management and prognosis in severe hyponatraemic patients. METHODS: Medical records of all patients hospitalised in our institution in 2012 with a plasma sodium ≤120 mmol/l were retrospectively analysed. RESULTS: One hundred forty-seven of 64 723 adult patients (0.2 %) were identified with severe hyponatraemia. In-hospital mortality rate was 24.5 and 50.3 % after a median follow-up of 431 days. Patients with plasma sodium <110 mmol/l had less comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index 2.2 ± 1.9 vs. 4.0 ± 3.1 (plasma sodium 110-115 mmol/l) and 4.2 ± 3.1 (plasma sodium 116-120 mmol/l); P = .02)) and a small trend for less mortality, respectively 40.0, 51.2 and 52.3 % (P = .64). At discharge, nonsurvivors and survivors had similar plasma sodium with 58.3 % of nonsurvivors being normonatraemic. Urine analysis was performed in 74.2 % of cases and associated with lower in-hospital mortality (20.2 % vs. 36.8 %, P = .05). In multivariate Cox analysis, mortality was significantly associated with plasma sodium normalisation (HR 0.35, P < 0.001), urine analysis (HR 0.48, P = .01), Charlson Comorbidity Index (HR 1.23, P < .001) and serum albumin (HR 0.88, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Mortality in severe hyponatraemia appears mainly due to comorbidities although the latter are potentiated by hyponatraemia itself and its management thereby exacerbating the risk of death.

Haemodialysis in patients treated with oral anticoagulant: should we heparinize?

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation for the haemodialysis circuit in patients treated with oral anticoagulation poses additional haemorrhagic risk. The few available data suggest that tapering or even stopping heparinization is feasible and the HeprAN membrane with grafted heparin was developed to decrease heparin dose. The objective of our study was to evaluate the need for additional anticoagulation in patients on long-term oral anticoagulation, according to the type of membrane used. METHODS: This is a prospective, randomized, crossover bifactorial trial in haemodialysed patients on oral anticoagulation. Each patient had four haemodialysis sessions with two different membranes [HeprAN or polysulphone (PS)] and with or without enoxaparin. Clinical coagulation was evaluated by the need for premature ending and by a visual score (Janssen scale). Coagulation activation markers were also measured: d-dimers, prothrombin fragments 1 + 2, thrombin-antithrombin complexes, tissue factor pathway inhibitor and platelet factor-4. RESULTS: Ten patients were included (M/F = 4/6, mean age 63 ± 15 years). None of the 40 sessions ended prematurely. The clotting scores were similar with or without enoxaparin (dialyser: 1.49 ± 0.19 versus 1.53 ± 0.17, P = 0.97; bubble trap: 0.75 ± 0.19 versus 0.78 ± 0.22, P = 0.62) and with the polysulphone or the HeprAN membrane (dialyser: 1.54 ± 0.20 versus 1.47 ± 0.16, P = 0.65; bubble trap: 0.74 ± 0.22 versus 0.79 ± 0.19, P = 0.58). There was no significant difference in coagulation activation markers between dialysis modalities; however, dialysis efficacy was significantly greater with the PS membrane (1.58 ± 0.07 versus 1.43 ± 0.06, P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that haemodialysis without additional anticoagulation is possible in patients with oral anticoagulation. The HeprAN membrane did not provide any additional benefit compared with a PS membrane.

Risk factors for BK virus infection in the era of therapeutic drug monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Overimmunosuppression is a widely recognized risk factor for BK virus (BKV) infection, particularly with the combination of tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), and steroids. Nevertheless, the exact impact of exposure to tacrolimus and MMF is not well understood. METHODS: We examined 240 kidney recipients between 2006 and 2008. BKV was monitored every 2 months in the urine or blood. A kidney biopsy was performed when viremia exceeded 10 copies/mL. RESULTS: Ninety-five (40%) patients had sustained viruria, 48 (20%) sustained viremia, and 17 (7%) biopsy-proven polyomavirus-associated nephropathy. The mean time-to-occurrence was 7.6, 7.9, and 9.7 months for viruria, viremia, and polyomavirus-associated nephropathy. Risk factors associated with BKV infection in univariate analyses were retransplantation, panel-reactive antibody more than 0%, cytomegalovirus D+/R-, cold ischemia time, delayed graft function, induction with antithymocyte globulins, acute rejection before month 3 (M3), tacrolimus trough levels more than 10 ng/mL, and M3 AUC0-12 hr more than 50 hr mg/L. Multivariate analyses showed that cytomegalovirus D+/R- (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.03; P=0.05), acute rejection (AHR, 5.4; P<0.001), and mycophenolic acid AUC0-12 hr more than 50 hr mg/L (AHR, 3.6; P=0.001) were risk factors for BKV. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified a link between a state of increased immunosuppression and BKV infection, especially in patients with higher MMF exposure and elevated tacrolimus trough levels at M3.