Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children (PREDIC): a pilot study from Matlab, Bangladesh.

UNLABELLED: Childhood drowning is a major public health problem that has been neglected in many low- and middle-income countries. In Matlab, rural Bangladesh, more than 40% of child deaths aged 1-4 years are due to drowning. AIM: The main objective of this paper was to develop and evaluate a childhood drowning risk prediction index. METHODOLOGY: A literature review was carried out to document risk factors identified for childhood drowning in Bangladesh. The Newacheck model for special health care needs for children was adapted and applied to construct a childhood drowning risk index called "Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children" (PREDIC). Finally, the proposed PREDIC Index was applied to childhood drowning deaths and compared with the comparison group from children living in Matlab, Bangladesh. This pilot study used t-tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to analyze the results. RESULTS: The PREDIC index was applied to 302 drowning deaths and 624 children 0-4 years old living in Matlab. The results of t-test indicate that the drowned children had a statistically (t=-8.58, p=0.0001) significant higher mean PREDIC score (6.01) than those in comparison group (5.26). Drowning cases had a PREDIC score of 6 or more for 68% of the children however, the comparison group had 43% of the children with score of 6 or more which was statistically significant (t=-7.36, p<0.001). The area under the curve for the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was 0.662. CONCLUSION: Index score construction was scientifically plausible; and the index is relatively complete, fairly accurate, and practical. The risk index can help identify and target high risk children with drowning prevention programs. PREDIC index needs to be further tested for its accuracy, feasibility and effectiveness in drowning risk reduction in Bangladesh and other countries.

Childhood drowning and traditional rescue measures: case study from Matlab, Bangladesh.

Recent mortality data indicate that approximately half a million people drown each year worldwide, with more than 97% of such deaths occurring in low-income and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to examine verbal autopsy data on the circumstances of childhood drowning in Matlab, Bangladesh. The study analysed 10 years (1996-2005) of data which reported 489 deaths in children under 5 years and recorded preimmersion, immersion and postimmersion events. The data summarised household characteristics, age, gender and time of drowning event. The study also examined traditional rescue methods performed on children who were removed from the water OR found drowning. Of 489 deaths, 57% were aged 1-2 years and had a drowning mortality rate of 521 per 100 000 children. Most drowning events occurred during the morning (68%), in ponds (69%), and while the mother was busy doing household chores (70%). Traditional rescue methods were attempted in 55% of children and the most frequently reported measure was to spin the child over head (35%). Only 3% of families tried to perform resuscitation. Verbal autopsy data for Matlab is a useful resource for childhood injury research in a low-income country. The study is one of the first to publish data on traditional rescue practices performed on drowning children in rural Bangladesh. The findings suggest that interventions should be designed using locally identified risk factors to reduce childhood drowning incidents. Community-based resuscitation techniques and emergency medical systems are needed to improve postimmersion recovery of the child.

Call for more research on injury from the developing world: results of a bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Injury prevention is a daunting health challenge as public health systems particularly in the developing world are least prepared to respond to this issue. In 2005, an estimated 5.4 million people worldwide died from injuries over 90 per cent in low- and middle-income countries. The main objective of this bibliometric analysis was to document injury literature published on low- and middle- income countries, and also to quantify literature on road traffic injuries by countries before and after the World Health Day on Road Safety celebrated in April 2004. METHODS: A systematic search was done using MeSH terms on PubMed. Papers on road traffic injuries were assessed by country/cluster and by publication date for two periods (March 2001-March 2004) and (April 2004-April 2007). The rate of articles published per million population was calculated. Finally, a comparison was made between disease burden in disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and quantum of papers published. The search was performed on April 29, 2007. RESULTS: PubMed had 8.26 million articles listed; of which, 72 per cent were in English and only 2 per cent were on unintentional injuries. For papers in all languages including English on road traffic injuries, 41 per cent were from US, 36 per cent from Europe (other than Eastern Europe). Two most populous countries, China and India contributed only 0.9 and 0.7 per cent papers on road traffic injuries, respectively. On neoplasm there were 280 articles published per million population whereas for road traffic injuries, rate was 4 articles per million population. Northern Africa, India and China had less than one article on road traffic injuries per 1,000 road traffic related deaths. The percentage change in English papers on road traffic injuries for the period 2004-2007 in comparison to period 2001-2004 was +191 per cent for China, +118 per cent for India, and +106 per cent for Middle East. Unintentional injuries overall represented 18 per cent of the burden in terms of DALYs and represented only 2 per cent of all published articles. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: The results noticeably reflected the small proportion of papers on injuries, the dominance of US, and the apparent increase in percentage of road traffic injuries papers from low- and middle- income countries after World Health Day on Road Safety in 2004. Policies on injury prevention and safety in developing countries will be effective if based on local evidence and research, and designed to suit the social, political, and economic circumstances found in developing countries.

Foreign bodies in gut.

BACKGROUND: Foreign body ingestion is common and a frightening experience to the patients and relatives. We report our experience with 102 patients, (78 children and 24 adults), with foreign body ingestion. METHODS: After locating foreign bodies radiologically, 34 (43.6%) foreign bodies in children and 13 (54.2%) foreign bodies in adults were removed endoscopically. General anesthesia was used in 32 children and overtube was used for all sharp foreign bodies. RESULTS: In our study, 78 (76%) patients were below 12 years of age. Coins (79.5%) were commonest foreign bodies in children while dentures (25%) were commonest in adults. Foreign bodies were most commonly sited in stomach (25.6%) in children and esophagus (58.3%) in adults. In 41 (52.6%) children and in three (12.5%) adults, i.e. total 44 out of 102 (43.1%) patients passed foreign bodies spontaneously. The largest foreign body that passed spontaneously was 4-cm long nail in a child. In 34 (43.6%) children and in 13 (54.2%) adults foreign bodies were removed endoscopically. Only 3.8% children and 33.3% adults required surgery. CONCLUSIONS: There was no mortality in our series. Majority of foreign bodies do not require any intervention. Sharp foreign bodies are commonest indication for surgery. However, endoscopic removal is safe, effective and is the method of choice for most patients.