Substantial uneven proliferation of CD4+ T cells during recovery from acute HIV infection is sufficient to explain the observed expanded clones in the HIV reservoir.

The HIV reservoir is a population of 1-10 million anatomically dispersed, latently infected memory CD4+ T cells in which HIV DNA is quiescently integrated into human chromosomal DNA. When antiretroviral therapy (ART) is stopped and HIV replication initiates in one of these cells, systemic viral spread resumes, rekindling progression to AIDS. Therefore, HIV latency prevents cure. The detection of many populations of identical HIV sequences at unique integration sites implicates CD4+ T cell proliferation as the critical driver of reservoir sustainment after a prolonged period of effective ART. Initial reservoir formation occurs during the first week of primary infection usually before ART is started. While empirical data indicates that both de novo infection and cellular proliferation generate latently infected cells during early untreated infection, it is not known which of these mechanisms is predominant. We developed a mathematical model that recapitulates the profound depletion and brisk recovery of CD4+ T cells, reservoir creation, and viral load trajectory during primary HIV infection. We extended the model to stochastically simulate individual HIV reservoir clones. This model predicts the first detection of HIV infected clones approximately 5 weeks after infection as has recently been shown in vivo and suggests that substantial, uneven proliferation among clones during the recovery from CD4+ lymphopenia is the most plausible explanation for the observed clonal reservoir distribution during the first year of infection.

Immune Imprinting Drives Human Norovirus Potential for Global Spread.

Understanding the complex interactions between virus and host that drive new strain evolution is key to predicting the emergence potential of variants and informing vaccine development. Under our hypothesis, future dominant human norovirus GII.4 variants with critical antigenic properties that allow them to spread are currently circulating undetected, having diverged years earlier. Through large-scale sequencing of GII.4 surveillance samples, we identified two variants with extensive divergence within domains that mediate neutralizing antibody binding. Subsequent serological characterization of these strains using temporally resolved adult and child sera suggests that neither candidate could spread globally in adults with multiple GII.4 exposures, yet young children with minimal GII.4 exposure appear susceptible. Antigenic cartography of surveillance and outbreak sera indicates that continued population exposure to GII.4 Sydney 2012 and antigenically related variants over a 6-year period resulted in a broadening of immunity to heterogeneous GII.4 variants, including those identified here. We show that the strongest antibody responses in adults exposed to GII.4 Sydney 2012 are directed to previously circulating GII.4 viruses. Our data suggest that the broadening of antibody responses compromises establishment of strong GII.4 Sydney 2012 immunity, thereby allowing the continued persistence of GII.4 Sydney 2012 and modulating the cycle of norovirus GII.4 variant replacement. Our results indicate a cycle of norovirus GII.4 variant replacement dependent upon population immunity. Young children are susceptible to divergent variants; therefore, emergence of these strains worldwide is driven proximally by changes in adult serological immunity and distally by viral evolution that confers fitness in the context of immunity. IMPORTANCE In our model, preepidemic human norovirus variants harbor genetic diversification that translates into novel antigenic features without compromising viral fitness. Through surveillance, we identified two viruses fitting this profile, forming long branches on a phylogenetic tree. Neither evades current adult immunity, yet young children are likely susceptible. By comparing serological responses, we demonstrate that population immunity varies by age/exposure, impacting predicted susceptibility to variants. Repeat exposure to antigenically similar variants broadens antibody responses, providing immunological coverage of diverse variants but compromising response to the infecting variant, allowing continued circulation. These data indicate norovirus GII.4 variant replacement is driven distally by virus evolution and proximally by immunity in adults.

Post-Vaccination Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Case-Control Study and Genomic Analysis of 119 Breakthrough Infections in Partially Vaccinated Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Post-vaccination infections challenge the control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: We matched 119 cases of post-vaccination severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection with BNT162b2 mRNA or ChAdOx1 nCOV-19 to 476 unvaccinated patients with COVID-19 (September 2020-March 2021) according to age and sex. Differences in 60-day all-cause mortality, hospital admission, and hospital length of stay were evaluated. Phylogenetic, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), and minority variant allele (MVA) full-genome sequencing analysis was performed. RESULTS: Overall, 116 of 119 cases developed COVID-19 post-first vaccination dose (median, 14 days). Thirteen of 119 (10.9%) cases and 158 of 476 (33.2%) controls died (P < .001), corresponding to the 4.5 number needed to treat (NNT). Multivariably, vaccination was associated with a 69.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.8 to 82.6) relative risk (RR) reduction in mortality. Similar results were seen in subgroup analysis for patients with infection onset ≥14 days after first vaccination and across vaccine subgroups. Hospital admissions (odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI: .51 to 1.28) and length of stay (-1.89 days; 95% CI: -4.57 to 0.78) were lower for cases, while cycle threshold values were higher (30.8 vs 28.8, P = .053). B.1.1.7 was the predominant lineage in cases (100 of 108, 92.6%) and controls (341 of 446, 76.5%). Genomic analysis identified 1 post-vaccination case that harbored the E484K vaccine-escape mutation (B.1.525 lineage). CONCLUSIONS: Previous vaccination reduces mortality when B.1.1.7 is the predominant lineage. No significant lineage-specific genomic changes during phylogenetic, SNP, and MVA analysis were detected.

Evolution of viral variants in remdesivir-treated and untreated SARS-CoV-2-infected pediatrics patients.

Detailed information on intrahost viral evolution in SARS-CoV-2 with and without treatment is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from the upper respiratory tract of nine hospitalized children, three of whom were treated with remdesivir, revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral load in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain without any evidence of drug resistance found. Reduced levels of subgenomic RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. These likely arose from within-host evolution, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Although our dataset is small, observed sample-to-sample heterogeneity in variant frequencies across four of nine patients suggests the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalization could compromise the penetration of remdesivir into the lung, limiting the drugs in vivo efficacy, as has been observed in other lung infections.

Mathematical Modeling of Within-Host, Untreated, Cytomegalovirus Infection Dynamics after Allogeneic Transplantation.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) causes significant morbidity and mortality in recipients of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). Whereas insights gained from mathematical modeling of other chronic viral infections such as HIV, hepatitis C, and herpes simplex virus-2 have aided in optimizing therapy, previous CMV modeling has been hindered by a lack of comprehensive quantitative PCR viral load data from untreated episodes of viremia in HCT recipients. We performed quantitative CMV DNA PCR on stored, frozen serum samples from the placebo group of participants in a historic randomized controlled trial of ganciclovir for the early treatment of CMV infection in bone marrow transplant recipients. We developed four main ordinary differential Equation mathematical models and used model selection theory to choose between 38 competing versions of these models. Models were fit using a population, nonlinear, mixed-effects approach. We found that CMV kinetics from untreated HCT recipients are highly variable. The models that recapitulated the observed patterns most parsimoniously included explicit, dynamic immune cell compartments and did not include dynamic target cell compartments, consistent with the large number of tissue and cell types that CMV infects. In addition, in our best-fitting models, viral clearance was extremely slow, suggesting severe impairment of the immune response after HCT. Parameters from our best model correlated well with participants' clinical risk factors and outcomes from the trial, further validating our model. Our models suggest that CMV dynamics in HCT recipients are determined by host immune response rather than target cell limitation in the absence of antiviral treatment.

The Alpha variant was not associated with excess nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection in a multi-centre UK hospital study.

OBJECTIVES: Recently emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants have been associated with an increased rate of transmission within the community. We sought to determine whether this also resulted in increased transmission within hospitals. METHODS: We collected viral sequences and epidemiological data of patients with community and healthcare associated SARS-CoV-2 infections, sampled from 16th November 2020 to 10th January 2021, from nine hospitals participating in the COG-UK HOCI study. Outbreaks were identified using ward information, lineage and pairwise genetic differences between viral sequences. RESULTS: Mixed effects logistic regression analysis of 4184 sequences showed healthcare-acquired infections were no more likely to be identified as the Alpha variant than community acquired infections. Nosocomial outbreaks were investigated based on overlapping ward stay and SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence similarity. There was no significant difference in the number of patients involved in outbreaks caused by the Alpha variant compared to outbreaks caused by other lineages. CONCLUSIONS: We find no evidence to support it causing more nosocomial transmission than previous lineages. This suggests that the stringent infection prevention measures already in place in UK hospitals contained the spread of the Alpha variant as effectively as other less transmissible lineages, providing reassurance of their efficacy against emerging variants of concern.

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 is associated with greater disease severity among hospitalised women but not men: multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 has been associated with an increased rate of transmission and disease severity among subjects testing positive in the community. Its impact on hospitalised patients is less well documented. METHODS: We collected viral sequences and clinical data of patients admitted with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital-onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs), sampled 16 November 2020 to 10 January 2021, from eight hospitals participating in the COG-UK-HOCI study. Associations between the variant and the outcomes of all-cause mortality and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission were evaluated using mixed effects Cox models adjusted by age, sex, comorbidities, care home residence, pregnancy and ethnicity. FINDINGS: Sequences were obtained from 2341 inpatients (HOCI cases=786) and analysis of clinical outcomes was carried out in 2147 inpatients with all data available. The HR for mortality of B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages was 1.01 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.28, p=0.94) and for ITU admission was 1.01 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.37, p=0.96). Analysis of sex-specific effects of B.1.1.7 identified increased risk of mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.78, p=0.096) and ITU admission (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.90, p=0.011) in females infected with the variant but not males (mortality HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.10, p=0.177; ITU HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.04, p=0.086). INTERPRETATION: In common with smaller studies of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, we did not find an overall increase in mortality or ITU admission associated with B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages. However, women with B.1.1.7 may be at an increased risk of admission to intensive care and at modestly increased risk of mortality.

Systematic Review and Patient-Level Meta-Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics to Model Response to Antiviral Therapies.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral loads change rapidly following symptom onset, so to assess antivirals it is important to understand the natural history and patient factors influencing this. We undertook an individual patient-level meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics in humans to describe viral dynamics and estimate the effects of antivirals used to date. This systematic review identified case reports, case series, and clinical trial data from publications between January 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards (Cox-PH) regression model of time to viral clearance was fitted to respiratory and stool samples. A simplified four parameter nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) model was fitted to viral load trajectories in all sampling sites and covariate modeling of respiratory viral dynamics was performed to quantify time-dependent drug effects. Patient-level data from 645 individuals (age 1 month to 100 years) with 6,316 viral loads were extracted. Model-based simulations of viral load trajectories in samples from the upper and lower respiratory tract, stool, blood, urine, ocular secretions, and breast milk were generated. Cox-PH modeling showed longer time to viral clearance in older patients, men, and those with more severe disease. Remdesivir was associated with faster viral clearance (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 9.19, P < 0.001), as well as interferon, particularly when combined with ribavirin (AHR = 2.2, P = 0.015; AHR = 6.04, P = 0.006). Combination therapy should be further investigated. A viral dynamic dataset and NLME model for designing and analyzing antiviral trials has been established.

Emergence of genomic diversity and recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 is a SARS-like coronavirus of likely zoonotic origin first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province. The virus has since spread globally, resulting in the currently ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The first whole genome sequence was published on January 5 2020, and thousands of genomes have been sequenced since this date. This resource allows unprecedented insights into the past demography of SARS-CoV-2 but also monitoring of how the virus is adapting to its novel human host, providing information to direct drug and vaccine design. We curated a dataset of 7666 public genome assemblies and analysed the emergence of genomic diversity over time. Our results are in line with previous estimates and point to all sequences sharing a common ancestor towards the end of 2019, supporting this as the period when SARS-CoV-2 jumped into its human host. Due to extensive transmission, the genetic diversity of the virus in several countries recapitulates a large fraction of its worldwide genetic diversity. We identify regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome that have remained largely invariant to date, and others that have already accumulated diversity. By focusing on mutations which have emerged independently multiple times (homoplasies), we identify 198 filtered recurrent mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Nearly 80% of the recurrent mutations produced non-synonymous changes at the protein level, suggesting possible ongoing adaptation of SARS-CoV-2. Three sites in Orf1ab in the regions encoding Nsp6, Nsp11, Nsp13, and one in the Spike protein are characterised by a particularly large number of recurrent mutations (>15 events) which may signpost convergent evolution and are of particular interest in the context of adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 to the human host. We additionally provide an interactive user-friendly web-application to query the alignment of the 7666 SARS-CoV-2 genomes.

Complementing 16S rRNA Gene Amplicon Sequencing with Total Bacterial Load To Infer Absolute Species Concentrations in the Vaginal Microbiome.

Whereas 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing quantifies relative abundances of bacterial taxa, variation in total bacterial load between samples restricts its ability to reflect absolute concentrations of individual bacterial species. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) can quantify individual species, but it is not practical to develop a suite of qPCR assays for every bacterium present in a diverse sample. We sought to determine the accuracy of an inferred measure of bacterial concentration using total bacterial load and relative abundance. We analyzed 1,320 samples from 20 women with a history of frequent bacterial vaginosis who self-collected vaginal swabs daily over 60 days. We inferred bacterial concentrations by taking the product of species relative abundance (assessed by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing) and bacterial load (measured by broad-range 16S rRNA gene qPCR). Log10-converted inferred concentrations correlated with targeted qPCR (r = 0. 935, P < 2.2e-16) for seven key bacterial species. The mean inferred concentration error varied across bacteria, with rarer bacteria associated with larger errors. A total of 92% of the >0.5-log10 errors occurred when the relative abundance was <10%. Many errors occurred during early bacterial expansion from or late contraction to low abundance. When the relative abundance of a species is >10%, inferred concentrations are reliable proxies for targeted qPCR in the vaginal microbiome. However, targeted qPCR is required to capture bacteria at low relative abundance and is preferable for characterizing growth and decay kinetics of single species.IMPORTANCE Microbiome studies primarily use 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to assess the relative abundance of bacterial taxa in a community. However, these measurements do not accurately reflect absolute taxon concentrations. We sought to determine whether the product of species' relative abundance and total bacterial load measured by broad-range qPCR is an accurate proxy for individual species' concentrations, as measured by taxon-specific qPCR assays. Overall, the inferred bacterial concentrations were a reasonable proxy of species-specific qPCR values, particularly when bacteria are present at a higher relative abundance. This approach offers an opportunity to assess the concentrations of bacterial species and how they change in a community over time without developing individual qPCR assays for each taxon.

Mathematical modeling to reveal breakthrough mechanisms in the HIV Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials.

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 µg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.