COVID-19 and Air Pollution: A Spatial Analysis of Particulate Matter Concentration and Pandemic-Associated Mortality in the US.

In 2019, a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was first reported in Wuhan, China. The virus causes the disease commonly known as COVID-19, and, since its emergence, it has infected over 252 million individuals globally and taken the lives of over 5 million in the same time span. Primary research on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 focused on understanding the biomolecular composition of the virus. This research has led to the development of multiple vaccines with great efficacy and antiviral treatments for the disease. The development of biomedical interventions has been crucial to combating this pandemic; additionally, environmental confounding variables that could have exacerbated the pandemic need further assessment. In this research study, we conducted a spatial analysis of particulate matter (PM) concentration and its association with COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Results of this study demonstrate a significant positive correlation between PM concentration levels and COVID-19 mortality; however, this does not necessarily imply a causal relationship. These results are consistent with similar studies in Italy and China, where significant COVID-19 cases and corresponding deaths were exhibited. Furthermore, maps of the data demonstrate clustering of COVID-19 mortality which suggest further investigation into the social determinants of health impacting the pandemic.

Spatial Variability in COVID-19 Mortality.

COVID-19 emerged as a global pandemic in the spring of 2020. Since that time, the disease has resulted in approximately 150 million cases and 3 million deaths worldwide. However, there is significant spatial variation in the rate of mortality from COVID-19. Here, we briefly explore spatial variations in COVID-19 mortality by country groupings and propose possible explanations for the differences observed. Specifically, we find that there is a statistically significant difference in COVID-19 mortality between countries grouped into categories based on (1) developed, primarily western diets and healthcare systems; (2) "Scandinavian" countries with advanced healthcare systems and generally anti-inflammatory diets, and (3) developing countries. We do not infer causality but believe that the observed associations provide hypotheses for future research investigations. Moreover, our results add further evidence to support additional exploration of vitamin D exposure/status and COVID-19 mortality.

Contemporary autochthonous human Chagas disease in the USA.

Chagas disease is a leading cause of non-ischemic cardiomyopathy in Latin America and an infection of emerging importance in the USA. Recent studies have uncovered evidence of an active peridomestic cycle in southern states, yet autochthonous transmission to humans has been rarely reported. We conducted a systematic review of the literature and public health department reports to investigate suspected or confirmed locally acquired cases of Chagas in the USA. We found 76 cases of contemporary suspected or confirmed locally acquired Chagas disease, nearly ten times the case counts cited in the prior 50 years of scientific literature. Shared risk factors among cases include rural residence, history of hunting or camping, and agricultural or outdoor work. The results of this review suggest that the disease burden and risk of autochthonous Chagas infection is potentially higher in the USA than previously recognized.

Knowledge and Practices to Avoid Heat-Related Illness among Hispanic Farmworkers along the Florida-Georgia Line.

Objectives: Farmworkers who harvest and weed field crops are at increased risk for heat exposure and heat-related illness (HRI). The study objectives were to: (1) train crew leaders to use the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) heat safety tool app and evaluate the utility of the app from a crew leader perspective; and (2) characterize heat safety knowledge, preventive practices, and perceptions of HRI risk among Hispanic farmworkers.Methods: Before harvest season, six crew leaders completed a 2-hour OSHA heat illness prevention training, including evaluation of a heat safety mobile app. Between August and October 2018, 101 Hispanic farmworkers participated in cross-sectional surveys about heat safety. Survey participants responded to questions about HRI prevention, HRI knowledge, and sociodemographics.Results: Crew leaders using the heat safety app rated the app very highly on relevance, functionality, value and privacy. Farmworkers did not report being overly concerned about HRI based on their survey responses. Nevertheless, 19% of farmworkers had experienced nonspecific symptoms from working in the heat, such as headache, dizziness, and nausea. In the multivariate linear regression model, farmworkers had lower heat safety knowledge scores if they were H-2A visa holders, female, and only "a little bit concerned," compared to others who were "very concerned" about working in the heat.Conclusion: The results of this study indicate the need for continued heat safety training for both crew leaders and farmworkers to reduce the risk of HRI, especially among less experienced farmworkers.

"I Think the Temperature was 110 Degrees!": Work Safety Discussions Among Hispanic Farmworkers.

Heat-related illness (HRI) among migrant and seasonal farmworkers is an occupational risk addressed through varying mitigation strategies by individual workers and supervisors. The purpose of this pilot study was to describe farmworkers' experience with HRI prevention strategies and assess HRI information seeking preferences, especially the feasibility of using mobile phone apps to access this information. Five focus groups were administered to Hispanic farmworkers in South Carolina. Questions included the following topics: health information seeking preferences; farmworkers' perceptions of occupational risks; coping strategies; past experiences with HRIs; water, rest, and shade practices; access to health care; and any employer-provided training received. There was consensus across the groups that the workers at highest risk for HRIs were either inexperienced or new workers in the fields. Farmworkers ascribed responsibility for one's well-being while working in the heat more as an individual factor than as an employer's responsibility. Farmworkers received training on the OSHA Heat Safety Tool app and provided positive feedback about the educational content and temperature information warnings. These findings suggest the potential for supervisors to take a more active role in heat safety education using mobile technology.

Changes to the electronic health records market in light of health information technology certification and meaningful use.

BACKGROUND: Health information technology (HIT) certification and meaningful use are interventions encouraging the adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) in the USA. However, these initiatives also constitute a significant intervention which will change the structure of the EHR market. OBJECTIVE: To describe quantitatively recent changes to both the demand and supply sides of the EHR market. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort of 3447 of hospitals from the HIMSS Analytics Database (2006-10) was created. Using hospital referral regions to define the local market, we determined the percentage of hospitals using paper records, the number of vendors, and local EHR vendor competition using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. Changes over time were assessed using a series of regression equations and geographic information systems analyses. RESULTS: Overall, there was movement away from paper records, upward trends in the number of EHR vendors, and greater competition. However, changes differed according to hospital size and region of the country. Changes were greatest for small hospitals, whereas competition and the number of vendors did not change dramatically for large hospitals. DISCUSSION: The EHR market is changing most dramatically for those least equipped to handle broad technological transformation, which underscores the need for continued targeted support. Furthermore, wide variations across the nation indicate a continued role for states in the support of EHR utilization. CONCLUSION: The structure of the EHR market is undergoing substantial changes as desired by the proponents and architects of HIT certification and meaningful use. However, these transformations are not uniform for all hospitals or all the country.

Spatial access to sterile syringes and the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe among injectors: a longitudinal multilevel study.

Despite the 2010 repeal of the ban on spending federal monies to fund syringe exchange programs (SEPs) in the U.S.A., these interventions--and specifically SEP site locations--remain controversial. To further inform discussions about the location of SEP sites, this longitudinal multilevel study investigates the relationship between spatial access to sterile syringes distributed by SEPs in New York City (NYC) United Hospital Fund (UHF) districts and injecting with an unsterile syringe among injectors over time (1995-2006). Annual measures of spatial access to syringes in each UHF district (N = 42) were created using data on SEP site locations and site-specific syringe distribution data. Individual-level data on unsterile injecting among injectors (N = 4,067) living in these districts, and on individual-level covariates, were drawn from the Risk Factors study, an ongoing cross-sectional study of NYC drug users. We used multilevel models to explore the relationship of district-level access to syringes to the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe in >75% of injection events in the past 6 months, and to test whether this relationship varied by district-level arrest rates (per 1,000 residents) for drug and drug paraphernalia possession. The relationship between district-level access to syringes and the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe depended on district-level arrest rates. In districts with low baseline arrest rates, better syringe access was associated with a decline in the odds of frequently injecting with an unsterile syringe (AOR, 0.95). In districts with no baseline syringe access, higher arrest rates were associated with increased odds of frequently injecting with an unsterile syringe (AOR, 1.02) When both interventions were present, arrest rates eroded the protective effects of spatial access to syringes. Spatial access to syringes in small geographic areas appears to reduce the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe among local injectors, and arrest rates elevate these odds. Policies and practices that curtail syringe flow in geographic areas (e.g., restrictions on SEP locations or syringe distribution) or that make it difficult for injectors to use the sterile syringes they have acquired may damage local injectors' efforts to reduce HIV transmission and other injection-related harms.

Drug-related arrest rates and spatial access to syringe exchange programs in New York City health districts: combined effects on the risk of injection-related infections among injectors.

Drug-related law enforcement activities may undermine the protective effects of syringe exchange programs (SEPs) on local injectors' risk of injection-related infections. We explored the spatial overlap of drug-related arrest rates and access to SEPs over time (1995-2006) in New York City health districts, and used multilevel models to investigate the relationship of these two district-level exposures to the odds of injecting with an unsterile syringe. Districts with better SEP access had higher arrest rates, and arrest rates undermined SEPs' protective relationship with unsterile injecting. Drug-related enforcement strategies targeting drug users should be de-emphasized in areas surrounding SEPs.

Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues") and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

Temporal trends in spatial access to pharmacies that sell over-the-counter syringes in New York City health districts: relationship to local racial/ethnic composition and need.

Pharmacies that sell over-the-counter (OTC) syringes are a major source of sterile syringes for injection drug users in cities and states where such sales are legal. In these cities and states, however, black injectors are markedly less likely to acquire syringes from pharmacies than white injectors. The present analysis documents spatial and temporal trends in OTC pharmacy access in New York City health districts over time (2001-2006) and investigates whether these trends are related to district racial/ethnic composition and to local need for OTC pharmacies. For each year of the study period, we used kernel density estimation methods to characterize spatial access to OTC pharmacies within each health district. Higher values on this measure indicate better access to these pharmacies. "Need" was operationalized using two different measures: the number of newly diagnosed injection-related AIDS cases per 10,000 residents (averaged across 1999-2001), and the number of drug-related hospital discharges per 10,000 residents (averaged across 1999-2001). District sociodemographic characteristics were assessed using 2000 US decennial census data. We used hierarchical linear models (HLM) for descriptive and inferential analyses and investigated whether the relationship between need and temporal trajectories in the Expanded Syringe Access Demonstration Program access varied by district racial/ethnic composition, controlling for district poverty rates. HLM analyses indicate that the mean spatial access to OTC pharmacies across New York City health districts was 12.71 in 2001 and increased linearly by 1.32 units annually thereafter. Temporal trajectories in spatial access to OTC pharmacies depended on both need and racial/ethnic composition. Within high-need districts, OTC pharmacy access was twice as high in 2001 and increased three times faster annually, in districts with higher proportions of non-Hispanic white residents than in districts with low proportions of these residents. In low-need districts, "whiter" districts had substantially greater baseline access to OTC pharmacies than districts with low proportions of non-Hispanic white residents. Access remained stable thereafter in low-need districts, regardless of racial/ethnic composition. Conclusions were consistent across both measures of "need" and persisted after controlling for local poverty rates. In both high- and low-need districts, spatial access to OTC pharmacies was greater in "Whiter" districts in 2001; in high-need districts, access also increased more rapidly over time in "whiter" districts. Ensuring equitable spatial access to OTC pharmacies may reduce injection-related HIV transmission overall and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in HIV incidence among injectors.

Did medieval trade activity and a viral etiology control the spatial extent and seasonal distribution of Black Death mortality?

Recent research into the world's greatest recorded epidemic, the Medieval Black Death (MBD), has cast doubt on Bubonic Plague as the etiologic agent. Prior research has recently culminated in outstanding advances in our understanding of the spatio-temporal pattern of MBD mortality, and a characterization of the incubation, latent, infectious, and symptomatic periods of the MBD. However, until now, several mysteries remained unexplained, including perhaps the biggest quandary of all: why did the MBD exhibit inverse seasonal peaks in mortality from diseases recorded in modern times, such as seasonal Influenza or the Indian Plague Epidemics of the early 1900 s? Although some have argued that climate changes likely explain the observed differences between modern clinical Bubonic Plague seasonality and MBD mortality accounts, we believe that another factor explains these dissimilarities. Here, we provide a synthetic hypothesis which builds upon previous theories developed in the last ten years or so. Our all-encompassing theory explains the causation, dissemination, and lethality of the MBD. We theorize that the MBD was a human-to-human transmitted virus, originating in East-Central Asia and not Africa (as some recent work has proposed), and that its areal extent during the first great epidemic wave of 1347-1350 was controlled hierarchically by proximity to trade routes. We also propose that the seasonality of medieval trade controlled the warm-weather mortality peaks witnessed during 1347-1350; during the time of greatest market activity, traders, fairgoers, and religious pilgrims served as unintentional vectors of a lethal virus with an incubation period of approximately 32 days, including a largely asymptomatic yet infectious period of roughly three weeks. We include a description of the rigorous research agenda that we have proposed in order to subject our theory to scientific scrutiny and a description of our plans to generate the first publicly available georeferenced GIS dataset pertaining to MBD mortality, as far as we are aware. This proposed theory, if supported by our aggressive and statistically robust proposed research activities, finally contains all of the elements necessary to convincingly reanalyze both the greatest historical epidemic of the last millennium, and the risk to modern populations in light of such findings.