The story of a 'maverick': Bulgaria's fertility decline.

Analysis of the fertility decline in Bulgaria shows that the perception of Bulgaria as an 'anomaly' in terms of its demographic development is based on a conservative interpretatiion of the demographic transition theory. The features that distinguish Bulgaria from the western European countries (faster decline, persistence of early and universal marriages, etc.) are generally accounted for by the specific social, economic, cultural, and political conditions. These findings suggest that the speed of the fertility decline and the means through which it is achieved are affected by a complex interaction between cultural and economic factors that are often difficult to distinguish in terms of primacy.

[Historia magistra vitae: on the methods of historical demography]. / Historia magistra vitae, ili oste za metodite i sredstvata na istoricheskata demografiya.

PIP: Indirect estimation techniques are applied to data for Bulgaria from 1891 to 1958 to assess trends in population dynamics. An interdisciplinary approach is suggested for the study of countries where data are often incomplete. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)^ieng

[Approaches and methods of fertility estimation in demographic projections]. / Podkhodi i metodi za otsenyavane na plodovitostta v demografskite prognozi.

The author describes methods of fertility estimation within demographic projections. He concludes that both period analysis and cohort follow-up are important to a thorough study of the birth rate of a population. "The second part of the article is dedicated to the procedures used for disaggregating the integral [of] full fertility, and extrapolating the incompleted fertility of a given cohort when formulating birthrate hypotheses." The geographical scope is worldwide. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

[Economic activity of the Bulgarian population in the last two decades]. / Ikonomicheskata aktivnost na naselenieto v Balgariya prez poslednite dve desetiletiya.

PIP: Some methodological problems in analyzing economic activity in Bulgaria are first introduced. The author then outlines trends in economic activity over the last 20 years. Particular attention is given to the employment of women and its impact on fertility. Reasons for changes in men's economic activity are also discussed, including premature male mortality. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)^ieng

[Features of the transition to new reproductive behavior in Bulgaria (an attempt to explain the "Bulgarian anomaly")]. / Osobenosti na prekhoda kam novo vazproizvodstveno povedenie v Balgariya (opit za obyasnenie na "balgarskata anomaliya").

PIP: The author examines demographic trends in Bulgaria in the twentieth century. Emphasis is on factors affecting regional changes in fertility. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)^ieng

[What do age-specific growth rates reveal?]. / Za kakvo "razkazvat" povazrastovite koefitsienti na prirast.

"This paper summarizes a generalization of the stable population theory pioneered by S. H. Preston and A. J. Coale, and elaborates on a particular case of this generalization suggested by Horiuchi and Preston. Based on the properties of age-specific growth rates to reflect in an indirect manner past population dynamics, an attempt is made to shed light on some aspects of the population history of Bulgaria, which until now have been 'hidden' due to the lack, or the unreliability of the statistical data." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

[Some aspects of fertility trends in Bulgaria since the beginning of the twentieth century and methods for their study]. / Nyakoi aspekti ot razvitieto na razhdaemostta v balgariya sled nachaloto na XX v. i metodi za tyakhnoto izsledvane.

PIP: The author discusses some aspects of the fertility transition in Bulgaria, which began in the early twentieth century. Consideration is given to the role of several demographic factors, the low mean age of maternity, and the methods used to control fertility. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)^ieng