Institutions matter: The impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the political trust of young Europeans.

In this paper, we study the short-run evolution of political trust during the recent covid-19 pandemic using survey data for a sample of young individuals living in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. In particular, we analyze whether pre-pandemic perceptions and experiences of citizens about various dimensions of local governments and institutional quality had any mediating effect on the evolution of political trust after the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic. The results show a relative increase in political trust of about 9% in regions with high institutional quality (75th percentile) compared with regions with low institutional quality (25th percentile) over the period 2019-2020. This divergence can be associated with either a better performance of policymakers in high-quality institutions regions, or to more positive attitudes toward politicians by citizens that, before the pandemic, believed to live in regions with efficient institutions. Overall results are not affected by the inclusion of regional fixed effects or by possible differential evolution of political trust according to a large set of observable regional characteristics.

Implementation of a Commitment Machine for an Adaptive and Robust Expected Shortfall Estimation.

This study proposes a metaheuristic for the selection of models among different Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation methods. The proposed approach, denominated "Commitment Machine" (CM), has a strong focus on assets cross-correlation and allows to measure adaptively the ES, dynamically evaluating which is the most performing method through the minimization of a loss function. The CM algorithm compares four different ES estimation techniques which all take into account the interaction effects among assets: a Bayesian Vector autoregressive model, Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) numerical schemes with Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) volatility model and a hybrid method that integrates Dynamic Recurrent Neural Networks together with a Monte Carlo approach. The integration of traditional Monte Carlo approaches with Machine Learning technologies and the heterogeneity of dynamically selected methodologies lead to an improved estimation of the ES. The study describes the techniques adopted by the CM and the logic behind model selection; moreover, it provides a market application case of the proposed metaheuristic, by simulating an equally weighted multi-asset portfolio.

Gender differences in sleep deprivation effects on risk and inequality aversion: evidence from an economic experiment.

Excessive working hours--even at night--are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects' risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced) participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females' reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making.