The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change.

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

Natural and anthropogenic forces on suspended sediment dynamics in Asian estuaries.

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are affecting the hydrological conditions of rivers and may have altered nutrient and suspended sediments released into coastal seas. However, testing this hypothesis is difficult, confounded by the lack of observational data and the unavailability of globally accepted suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithms. Here, we analyzed the trends in SSC (2000-2020) at the mouths of 10 major Asian rivers using 10 available satellite-SSC algorithms. We identified spatially distinct trends, with SSC decreasing at the mouths of the Yellow, Pearl, and Indus rivers, and increasing trends at the mouths of the Narmada and Ganges-Brahmaputra rivers, while there were no significant trends at the mouths of the remaining rivers. River discharge, dams, and land use changes in basins individually did not suffice, but reproduced the observed SSC trends when used together. Our results imply that anthropogenic activities threaten the marine ecosystem more than climate forcing on Asian coasts.

Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change.

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.

Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change.

Globally, flood risk is projected to increase in the future due to climate change and population growth. Here, we quantify the role of dams in flood mitigation, previously unaccounted for in global flood studies, by simulating the floodplain dynamics and flow regulation by dams. We show that, ignoring flow regulation by dams, the average number of people exposed to flooding below dams amount to 9.1 and 15.3 million per year, by the end of the 21st century (holding population constant), for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0, respectively. Accounting for dams reduces the number of people exposed to floods by 20.6 and 12.9% (for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively). While environmental problems caused by dams warrant further investigations, our results indicate that consideration of dams significantly affect the estimation of future population exposure to flood, emphasizing the need to integrate them in model-based impact analysis of climate change.

Predicting rice pesticide fate and transport following foliage application by an updated PCPF-1 model.

The Pesticide Concentration in Paddy Field (PCPF-1) model has been successfully used to predict the fate and transport of granular pesticides applied to the paddy fields. However, it is not applicable for pesticides in foliar formulation while previous studies have reported that foliar application may increase the risks of rice pesticide contamination to the aquatic environment due to pesticide wash-off from rice foliage. In this study, we developed and added a foliar application module into the PCPF-1 model to improve its versatility regarding pesticide application methods. In addition, some processes of the original model such as photodegradation were simplified. The updated model was then validated with data from previous studies. Critical parameters of the model were calibrated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm. The calibrated model simulated pesticide dissipation trend and concentrations with moderate accuracy in the two paddy compartments including rice foliage and paddy water. The accuracy of the predicted soil concentrations could not be evaluated since no observed data were available. Although the p-factor and r-factor obtained using the SUFI2 algorithm indicated that the uncertainty encompassed in the predicted concentrations was rather high, the daily predicted pesticide concentrations in rice foliage and paddy water were satisfactory based on the NSE values (0.36-0.89). The updated PCPF-1 model is a flexible tool for the environmental risk assessment of pesticide losses and the evaluation of agricultural management practices for mitigating pesticide pollution associated with rice production.

Modeling of runoff water and runoff pesticide concentrations in upland bare soil using improved SPEC model.

The SPEC model (Predicted Environmental Concentrations in agricultural Soils) was developed and improved for the simulation of pesticide runoff. The model was applied to the Sakaecho upland bare soil field (Tokyo, Japan) to predict runoff water, sediment concentration in runoff water, pesticide concentrations in runoff water, and runoff sediment (clothianidin and imidacloprid) under artificial rainfall conditions. The results showed that the simulated time to first runoff agreed very well with the observed data. The simulated cumulative runoff, sediment yield, and imidacloprid concentration in sediment agreed well with the observed data (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)>0.75). The simulated runoff rate agreed reasonably well with the observed data (NSE >0.5). The predicted clothianidin concentrations in sediment and in runoff water had acceptable agreement with the observed data (NSE >0). The results implied the model's potential to predict runoff water, sediment yield, and pesticide runoff.

Improvement and application of the PCPF-1@SWAT2012 model for predicting pesticide transport: a case study of the Sakura River watershed.

BACKGROUND: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool combined with Pesticide Concentration in Paddy Field (PCPF-1@SWAT) model was previously developed to simulate the fate and transport of rice pesticides in watersheds. However, the current model is deficient in characterizing the rice paddy area and is incompatible with the ArcSWAT2012 program. In this study, we modified the original PCPF-1@SWAT model to develop a new PCPF-1@SWAT2012 model to address the deficiency in the rice paddy area and utilizing the ArcSWAT2012 program. Next, the new model was applied to the Sakura River watershed, Ibaraki, Japan in order to simulate the transport of four herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. RESULTS: The results showed that the water flow rate simulated by PCPF1@SWAT2012 was similar with the observed data. The calculated Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) (0.73) and percent bias (PBIAS) (-20.38) suggested satisfactory performance of the model. In addition, the concentrations of herbicides simulated by the PCPF-1@SWAT2012 model were in good agreement with the observed data. The statistical indices NSE and root mean square error (RMSE) estimated for mefenacet (0.69 and 0.18, respectively), pretilachlor (0.86 and 0.18, respectively), bensulfuronmethyl (0.46 and 0.21, respectively) and imazosulfuron (0.64 and 0.28, respectively) indicated satisfactory predictions. CONCLUSION: The PCPF-1@SWAT2012 model is capable of simulating well the water flow rate and transport of herbicides in this watershed, comprising different land use types, including a rice paddy area. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

PCPF-M model for simulating the fate and transport of pesticides and their metabolites in rice paddy field.

BACKGROUND: The PCPF-1 model was improved for forecasting the fate and transport of metabolites in addition to parent compounds in rice paddies. In the new PCPF-M model, metabolites are generated from the dissipation of pesticide applied in rice paddies through hydrolysis, photolysis and biological degradations. The methodology to parameterize the model was illustrated using two scenarios for which uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: In a batch degradation experiment, the hourly forecasted concentrations of fipronil and its metabolites in paddy water were very accurate. In a field-scale experiment, the hourly forecasted concentrations of fipronil in paddy water and paddy soil were accurate while the corresponding daily forecasted concentrations of metabolites were adequate. The major contributors to the variation of the forecasted metabolite concentrations in paddy water and paddy soil were the formation fractions of the metabolites. The influence of uncertainty included in input parameters on the forecasted metabolite concentration was high during the peak concentration of metabolite in paddy water. In contrast, in paddy soil, the metabolite concentrations forecasted several days after the initial pesticide application were sensitive to the uncertainty incorporated in the input parameters. CONCLUSION: The PCPF-M model simultaneously forecasts the concentrations of a parent pesticide and up to three metabolites. The model was validated using fipronil and two of its metabolites in paddy water and paddy soil. The model can be used in the early stage of the pesticide registration process and in risk assessment analysis for the evaluation of pesticide exposure. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Validation of QuEChERS based method for determination of fenitrothion residues in tomatoes by gas chromatography-flame photometric detector: Decline pattern and risk assessment.

A simple and rapid gas chromatography with flame photometric detector (GC-FPD) determination method was developed to detect residue levels and investigate the dissipation pattern and safe use of fenitrothion in tomatoes. A modified quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) using an ethyl acetate-based extraction, followed by a dispersive solid-phase extraction (d-SPE) with primary-secondary amine (PSA) and graphite carbon black (GCB) for clean up, was applied prior to GC-FPD analysis. The method showed satisfactory linearity, recovery and precision. The limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were 0.005 and 0.01mg/kg, respectively. The residue levels of fenitrothion were best described by first order kinetics with a half-life of 2.2days in tomatoes. The potential health risks posed by fenitrothion were not significant, based on supervised residue trial data. The current findings could provide guidance for safe and reasonable use of fenitrothion in tomatoes and prevent health problems to consumers.

Simulating the fate and transport of nursery-box-applied pesticide in rice paddy fields.

BACKGROUND: The Pesticide Concentration in a Paddy Field model (PCPF-1) was modified by adding a root zone compartment to simulate nursery-box-applied (NB-applied) pesticide. The PCPF-NB model was validated for predicting the concentrations of NB-applied fipronil and imidacloprid in rice paddy fields using two treatment methods: before transplanting (BT) and at sowing (AS). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the robustness of the concentrations predicted by the model. RESULTS: The hourly predicted concentrations of imidacloprid and fipronil were accurate in both paddy water and 1 cm deep paddy soil. The coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency were greater than 0.87 and 0.60 respectively. The 95th percentiles of the predicted concentrations of fipronil and imidacloprid indicated that the influence of input uncertainty was minor in paddy water but important in paddy soil. The pesticide deposition rate and the desorption rate from the root zone were identified to be the major contributors to the variation in the predicted concentrations in paddy water and soil. CONCLUSION: The PCPF-NB model was validated for predicting the fate and transport of NB-applied fipronil and imidacloprid using the BT and AS treatment methods. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Development and validation of the SPEC model for simulating the fate and transport of pesticide applied to Japanese upland agricultural soil.

A pesticide fate and transport model, SPEC, was developed for assessing Soil-PEC (Predicted Environmental Concentrations in agricultural soils) for pesticide residues in upland field environments. The SPEC model was validated for predicting the water content and concentrations of atrazine and metolachlor in 5-cm deep soil. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the robustness of the model's predictions. The predicted daily soil water contents were accurate regarding the number of observation points (n=269). The coefficient of determination (R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE ) were equal to 0.38 and 0.22, respectively. The predicted daily concentrations of atrazine and metolachlor were also satisfactory since the R 2 and NSE statistics were greater than 0.91 and 0.76, respectively. The field capacity, the saturated water content of the soil and the Q 10 parameter were identified as major contributors to variation in predicted soil water content or/and herbicide concentrations.

Potential impacts of seasonal variation on atrazine and metolachlor persistence in andisol soil.

To estimate the potential effect of seasonal variation on the fate of herbicides in andisol soil, atrazine and metolachlor residues were investigated through the summer and winter seasons during 2013 and 2014 under field condition. The computed half-lives of atrazine and metolachlor in soil changed significantly through the two seasons of the trial. The half-lives were shorter in summer season with 16.0 and 23.5 days for atrazine and metolachlor, respectively. In contrast, the half-lives were longer during the winter season with 32.7 and 51.8 days for atrazine and metolachlor, respectively. The analysis of soil water balance suggested that more pesticide was lost in deeper soil layers through infiltration in summer than in winter. In addition, during the summer season, metolachlor was more likely to leach into deeper soil layer than atrazine possibly due to high water solubility of metolachlor.

Effect of rice husk gasification residue application on herbicide behavior in micro paddy lysimeter.

Effects of rice husk gasification residues (RHGR) application on the fate of herbicides, butachlor and pyrazosulfuron-ethyl, in paddy water were investigated using micro paddy lysimeters (MPLs). The dissipation of both herbicides in paddy water was faster in the RHGR treated MPL than in the control MPL. The average concentrations of butachlor and pyrazosulfuron-ethyl in paddy water in the lysimeter treated with RHGR during 21 days were significantly reduced by 51% and 48%, respectively, as compared to those in the lysimeter without RHGR application. The half-lives (DT50) of butachlor in paddy water for control and treatment were 3.1 and 2.3 days respectively, and these values of pyrazosulfuron-ethyl were 3.0 and 2.2 days, respectively. Based on this study, RHGR application in rice paddy environment is an alternative method to reduce the concentration of herbicide in paddy field water and consequently to reduce potential pollution to aquatic environment.

Behavior of butachlor and pyrazosulfuron-ethyl in paddy water using micro paddy lysimeters under different temperature conditions in spring and summer.

The behavior of butachlor and pyrazosulfuron-ethyl in paddy water was investigated using micro paddy lysimeters with prescribed hydrological conditions under ambient temperature in spring and summer for simulating two rice crop seasons. Although they were not significantly different, the dissipation of both herbicides in paddy water in the summer experiment was faster than in the spring experiment. The half-lives (DT(50)) in paddy water for spring and summer experiments were 3.2 and 2.5 days for butachlor, and 3.1 and 1.6 days for pyrazosulfuron-ethyl, respectively.