Is it useful to also image the asymptomatic leg in patients with suspected deep vein thrombosis?

BACKGROUND: Venous ultrasonography is the cornerstone of the diagnostic work-up in patients with suspected deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Significant variations exist in clinical practice between centers and/or countries, e.g. proximal vs. whole-leg ultrasound, serial tests vs. single test, and combination with clinical probability and D-dimer testing. Fewer data exist on the need for bilateral leg imaging. OBJECTIVES: To assess the yield of bilateral leg ultrasonography in patients with suspected DVT. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients with clinically suspected DVT. A single whole-leg ultrasound scan was performed in all patients. We extracted information on demographics, risk factors, clinical signs, pretest probability, side of clinical suspicion, and ultrasound results. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Among the 2804 included patients, 609 (21.8%) patients had a positive ultrasound finding. A total of 20 patients (0.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5-1.2%) had a thrombus diagnosed in both the symptomatic leg and asymptomatic leg. Moreover, five patients (0.2%; 95% CI 0.1-0.5%) did not have a thrombus in the symptomatic leg but had a thrombus in the asymptomatic leg. Two of 2540 patients with unilateral symptoms had no proximal DVT in the symptomatic leg and a proximal DVT in the asymptomatic leg (0.08%; 95% CI 0.0-0.3%). In summary, systematic imaging of both legs in patients with suspected DVT has a very low yield, and therefore does not appear to be justified.

Cardiac biomarkers and clinical scores for risk stratification in elderly patients with non-high-risk pulmonary embolism.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prognostic accuracy of cardiac biomarkers alone and in combination with clinical scores in elderly patients with non-high-risk pulmonary embolism (PE). DESIGN: Ancillary analysis of a Swiss multicentre prospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: A total of 230 patients aged ≥65 years with non-high-risk PE. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The study end-point was a composite of PE-related complications, defined as PE-related death, recurrent venous thromboembolism or major bleeding during a follow-up of 30 days. The prognostic accuracy of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), the Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the precursor of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) was determined using sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, logistic regression and reclassification statistics. RESULTS: The overall complication rate during follow-up was 8.7%. hs-cTnT achieved the highest prognostic accuracy [area under the ROC curve: 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63-0.86, P < 0.001). At the predefined cut-off values, the negative predictive values of the biomarkers were above 95%. For levels above the cut-off, the risk of complications increased fivefold for hs-cTnT [odds ratio (OR): 5.22, 95% CI: 1.49-18.25] and 14-fold for NT-proBNP (OR: 14.21, 95% CI: 1.73-116.93) after adjustment for both clinical scores and renal function. Reclassification statistics indicated that adding hs-cTnT to the GPS or the PESI significantly improved the prognostic accuracy of both clinical scores. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with nonmassive PE, NT-proBNP or hs-cTnT could be an adequate alternative to clinical scores for identifying low-risk individuals suitable for outpatient management.

Racial and ethnic differences in the risk of postpartum venous thromboembolism: a population-based, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major contributor of maternal morbidity and mortality. Whether maternal race/ethnicity is associated with the risk of postpartum VTE remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a population-based, case-control study in Washington State, from 1987 through 2011. Cases comprised all women with selected International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification codes for hospitalized VTE within 3 months post-delivery. Controls were randomly selected postpartum women who did not experience a VTE. Characteristics of women and their deliveries were abstracted from birth certificates. Using logistic regression models, we compared the risk of postpartum VTE in black, Asian, and Hispanic women with that in non-Hispanic white women, after adjustment for maternal characteristics (age, body mass index, parity, education), pregnancy complications, and delivery methods. RESULTS: Our study comprised 688 cases and 10 246 controls. Among controls, the mean age and body mass index were 27.5 years and 26.3 kg m(-2) , respectively. Compared with white women, black and Asian women had a greater and lower risk of postpartum VTE (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-2.04 and OR 0.67, 95%CI 0.48-0.94, respectively). A lower risk was present in Hispanic women (adjusted OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.61-1.06) but was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, we observed an increased risk for black compared with white women among women who delivered via cesarean section (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.34-3.07) but not among vaginal deliveries (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.61-1.74). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal race/ethnicity is associated with the risk of postpartum VTE, independently of other risk factors, and should be considered when assessing the use of thromboprophylaxis after delivery.

Effects of impaired renal function on levels and performance of D-dimer in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism.

Clinical probability and D-dimer measurement play an essential role in the non-invasive diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). PE can be ruled out without further imaging in patients with non-high clinical probability and negative D-dimer. D-dimer level is increased in patients with renal impairment. Whether its diagnostic usefulness is maintained in these patients is not well determined. We aimed to evaluate the effects of renal impairment on diagnostic performances of D-dimer in patients with suspected PE. A retrospective analysis of 1,625 patients with suspected PE included in a multicentre prospective study was performed. D-dimer levels and percentages of patients with a negative D-dimer were compared between three subgroups according to glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated by the MDRD formula: ≥90 ml/min (normal renal function), 60-89 ml/min (mild renal impairment), 30-59 ml/min (moderate renal impairment). D-dimer levels increased and the proportion of negative D-dimer decreased significantly according to renal status: 46% negative D-dimer in patients with normal GFR, 31% in patients with mild renal impairment, 11% in those with moderate renal impairment, corresponding to number of patients needed to test to obtain one negative test of 2.2, 3.2 and 9, respectively. In conclusion, the clinical usefulness of D-dimer decreases with renal impairment. However, PE can still be ruled out by negative D-dimer in a substantial proportion of patients with non-high clinical probability, avoiding exposure to contrast media.

Risk of falls and bleeding in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

OBJECTIVE: Whether or not a high risk of falls increases the risk of bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulants remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 991 patients ≥ 65 years of age who received anticoagulants for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) at nine Swiss hospitals between September 2009 and September 2012. The study outcomes were as follows: the time to a first major episode of bleeding; and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. We determined the associations between the risk of falls and the time to a first episode of bleeding using competing risk regression, accounting for death as a competing event. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors and anticoagulation as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: Four hundred fifty-eight of 991 patients (46%) were at high risk of falls. The mean duration of follow-up was 16.7 months. Patients at high risk of falls had a higher incidence of major bleeding (9.6 vs. 6.6 events/100 patient-years; P = 0.05) and a significantly higher incidence of clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (16.7 vs. 8.3 events/100 patient-years; P < 0.001) than patients at low risk of falls. After adjustment, a high risk of falls was associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23-2.46], but not with major bleeding (SHR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.83-1.86). CONCLUSION: In elderly patients who receive anticoagulants because of VTE, a high risk of falls is significantly associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, but not with major bleeding. Whether or not a high risk of falls is a reason against providing anticoagulation beyond 3 months should be based on patient preferences and the risk of VTE recurrence.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

Clot resolution after 3 weeks of anticoagulant treatment for pulmonary embolism: comparison of computed tomography and perfusion scintigraphy.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the natural history of clot resolution in the initial weeks of anticoagulant therapy in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Clot resolution of acute PE was assessed with either computed tomography pulmonary angiography scan (CT-scan) or perfusion scintigraphy scan (Q-scan) after 3 weeks of treatment. METHODS: This was a predefined safety analysis of the Einstein PE study, including PE patients, randomized to either enoxaparin with vitamin K antagonist (VKA) or rivaroxaban. A similar scan as at baseline was repeated after 3 weeks. The percentage of vascular obstruction (PVO) was calculated on the basis of a weighted semiquantitative estimation of obstruction. Clot resolution was assessed blindly by calculating the relative change after 3 weeks. RESULTS: PE was diagnosed in 264 patients with CT-scan and in 83 with Q-scan. Baseline characteristics were similar. At baseline, the mean PVO assessed with CT-scan (PVO-CT) and the mean PVO assessed with Q-scan (PVO-Q) were both 21% (standard deviation [SD] 13%) (P = 0.9). The mean relative decrease in PVO was 71% (SD 33%) for PVO-CT, and 62% (SD 36%) for PVO-Q (P = 0.02); complete resolution was observed in 44% (116/264; 95% confidence interval [CI] 38-50%) and 31% (26/83; 95% CI 22-42%) with CT-scan and Q-scan, respectively (P = 0.04). No difference in clot resolution between enoxaparin/VKA and rivaroxaban was found. CONCLUSION: In patients with acute PE, only 3 weeks of anticoagulant treatment leads to complete clot resolution in a considerable proportion of patients, and normalization is more often observed with CT-scan than with Q-scan.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

International clinical practice guidelines for the treatment and prophylaxis of venous thromboembolism in patients with cancer.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines addressing the management of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in cancer patients are heterogeneous and their implementation has been suboptimal worldwide. OBJECTIVES: To establish a common international consensus addressing practical, clinically relevant questions in this setting. METHODS: An international consensus working group of experts was set up to develop guidelines according to an evidence-based medicine approach, using the GRADE system. RESULTS: For the initial treatment of established VTE: low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) is recommended [1B]; fondaparinux and unfractionated heparin (UFH) can be also used [2D]; thrombolysis may only be considered on a case-by-case basis [Best clinical practice (Guidance)]; vena cava filters (VCF) may be considered if contraindication to anticoagulation or pulmonary embolism recurrence under optimal anticoagulation; periodic reassessment of contraindications to anticoagulation is recommended and anticoagulation should be resumed when safe; VCF are not recommended for primary VTE prophylaxis in cancer patients [Guidance]. For the early maintenance (10 days to 3 months) and long-term (beyond 3 months) treatment of established VTE, LMWH for a minimum of 3 months is preferred over vitamin K antagonists (VKA) [1A]; idraparinux is not recommended [2C]; after 3-6 months, LMWH or VKA continuation should be based on individual evaluation of the benefit-risk ratio, tolerability, patient preference and cancer activity [Guidance]. For the treatment of VTE recurrence in cancer patients under anticoagulation, three options can be considered: (i) switch from VKA to LMWH when treated with VKA; (ii) increase in LMWH dose when treated with LMWH, and (iii) VCF insertion [Guidance]. For the prophylaxis of postoperative VTE in surgical cancer patients, use of LMWH o.d. or low dose of UFH t.i.d. is recommended; pharmacological prophylaxis should be started 12-2 h preoperatively and continued for at least 7-10 days; there are no data allowing conclusion that one type of LMWH is superior to another [1A]; there is no evidence to support fondaparinux as an alternative to LMWH [2C]; use of the highest prophylactic dose of LMWH is recommended [1A]; extended prophylaxis (4 weeks) after major laparotomy may be indicated in cancer patients with a high risk of VTE and low risk of bleeding [2B]; the use of LMWH for VTE prevention in cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery may be recommended as for laparotomy [Guidance]; mechanical methods are not recommended as monotherapy except when pharmacological methods are contraindicated [2C]. For the prophylaxis of VTE in hospitalized medical patients with cancer and reduced mobility, we recommend prophylaxis with LMWH, UFH or fondaparinux [1B]; for children and adults with acute lymphocytic leukemia treated with l-asparaginase, depending on local policy and patient characteristics, prophylaxis may be considered in some patients [Guidance]; in patients receiving chemotherapy, prophylaxis is not recommended routinely [1B]; primary pharmacological prophylaxis of VTE may be indicated in patients with locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic [1B] or lung [2B] cancer treated with chemotherapy and having a low risk of bleeding; in patients treated with thalidomide or lenalidomide combined with steroids and/or chemotherapy, VTE prophylaxis is recommended; in this setting, VKA at low or therapeutic doses, LMWH at prophylactic doses and low-dose aspirin have shown similar effects; however, the efficacy of these regimens remains unclear [2C]. Special situations include brain tumors, severe renal failure (CrCl<30 mL min(-1) ), thrombocytopenia and pregnancy. Guidances are provided in these contexts. CONCLUSIONS: Dissemination and implementation of good clinical practice for the management of VTE, the second cause of death in cancer patients, is a major public health priority.

International clinical practice guidelines for the treatment and prophylaxis of thrombosis associated with central venous catheters in patients with cancer.

BACKGROUND: Although long-term indwelling central venous catheters (CVCs) may lead to pulmonary embolism (PE) and loss of the CVC, there is lack of consensus on management of CVC-related thrombosis (CRT) in cancer patients and heterogeneity in clinical practices worldwide. OBJECTIVES: To establish common international Good Clinical Practices Guidelines (GCPG) for the management of CRT in cancer patients. METHODS: An international working group of experts was set up to develop GCPG according to an evidence-based medicine approach, using the GRADE system. RESULTS: For the treatment of established CRT in cancer patients, we found no prospective randomized studies, two non-randomized prospective studies and one retrospective study examining the efficacy and safety of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) plus vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). One retrospective study evaluated the benefit of CVC removal and two small retrospective studies were on thrombolytic drugs. For the treatment of symptomatic CRT, anticoagulant treatment (AC) is recommended for a minimum of 3 months; in this setting, LMWHs are suggested. VKAs can also be used, in the absence of direct comparisons of these two types of anticoagulants in this setting [Guidance]. The CVC can be kept in place if it is functional, well-positioned and non-infected and there is good resolution under close surveillance; whether the CVC is kept or removed, no standard approach in terms of AC duration has been established [Guidance]. For the prophylaxis of CRT in cancer patients, we found six randomized studies investigating the efficacy and safety of VKA vs. placebo or no treatment, one on the efficacy and safety of unfractionnated heparin, six on the value of LMWH, one double-blind randomized and one non randomized study on thrombolytic drugs and six meta-analyses of AC and CVC thromboprophylaxis. Type of catheter (open-ended like the Hickman(®) catheter vs. closed-ended catheter with a valve like the Groshong(®) catheter), its position (above, below or at the junction of the superior vena cava and the right atrium) and method of placement may influence the onset of CRT on the basis of six retrospective trials, four prospective non-randomized trials, three randomized trials and one meta-analysis. In light of these data: use of AC for routine prophylaxis of CRT is not recommended [1A]; a CVC should be inserted on the right side, in the jugular vein, and distal extremity of the CVC should be located at the junction of the superior vena cava and the right atrium [1A]. CONCLUSION: Dissemination and implementation of these international GCPG for the prevention and treatment of CRT in cancer patients at each national level is a major public health priority, needing worldwide collaboration.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elder patients with a pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI) are well-known clinical prognostic scores for a pulmonary embolism (PE). OBJECTIVES: To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with a PE. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥ 65 years with a symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low vs. higher risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤ 2 vs. > 2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥ 1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC). RESULTS: Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P < 0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared with 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P = 0.47). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Diagnosis of and treatment for symptomatic carotid stenosis: an updated review.

Carotid stenoses of ≥50% account for about 15-20% of strokes. Their degree may be moderate (50-69%) or severe (70-99%). Current diagnostic methods include ultrasound, MR- or CT-angiography. Stenosis severity, irregular plaque surface, and presence of microembolic signals detected by transcranial Doppler predict the early recurrence risk, which may be as high as 20%. Initial therapy comprises antiplatelets and statins. Benefit of revascularization is greater in men, in older patients, and in severe stenosis; patients with moderate stenoses may also profit particularly if the plaque has an irregular aspect. An intervention should be performed within <2 weeks. In large randomized studies comparing endarterectomy and stenting, endovascular therapy was associated with a higher risk of periprocedural stroke, yet in some studies, with a lower risk of myocardial infarction and of cranial neuropathy. These trials support endarterectomy as the first choice treatment. Risk factors for each of the two therapies have been indentified: coronary artery disease, neck radiation, contralateral laryngeal nerve palsy for endarterectomy, and, elderly patients (>70 years), arch vessel tortuosity and plaques with low echogenicity on ultrasound for carotid stenting. Lastly, in direct comparisons, a contralateral occlusion increases the risk of periprocedural complications in both types of treatment.

Doppler ultrasound and D-dimer: friend or foe?

The diagnosis of venous thromboembolism has evolved considerably with the development of standardized diagnostic algorithms that include clinical probability assessment, D-dimer measurement and the use of non-invasive imaging modalities such as compression ultrasonography and computed tomography angiography. The implementation of these strategies aims to improve resource allocation and patient outcome. The judicious use of these diagnostic tools requires a thorough knowledge of the appropriate clinical setting in which every test and strategy is efficient and can be used safely. For this purpose, D-dimer measurement and compression ultrasonography are complementary: the former is mainly used to exclude VTE in selected patients, while the latter is used to confirm the presence of an underlying DVT. This review provides an appraisal of the features and use of D-dimer and compression ultrasonography in the context of suspected venous thromboembolism.

A nation-wide initiative against venous thromboembolism.

There is a gap between knowledge and recommendations regarding venous thromboembolism (VTE) on the one hand and daily practice on the other. This fact has prompted a Swiss multidisciplinary group consisting of angiologists, haematologists, internists, and emergency medicine and pharmaceutical medicine specialists interested in VTE, the SAMEX group, to set up a series of surveys and studies that give useful insight into the situation in our country. Their projects encompassed prophylactic and therapeutic aspects of VTE, and enrolled over 7000 patients from five academic and 45 non-academic acute care hospitals and fifty-three private practices in Switzerland. This comprehensive Swiss Clinical Study Programme forms the largest database surveying current clinical patterns of VTE management in a representative sample of the Swiss patient population. Overall the programme shows a lack of thromboprophylaxis use in hospitalised at-risk medical patients, particularly in those with cancer, acute heart or respiratory failure and the elderly, as well as under-prescription of extended prophylaxis beyond hospital discharge in patients undergoing major cancer surgery. In regard to VTE treatment, planning of anticoagulation duration, administration of LMWH for cancer-associated thrombosis, and the use of compression therapy for prevention of post-thrombotic syndrome in patients with symptomatic proximal DVT require improvement. In conclusion, this programme highlights insufficient awareness of venous thromboembolic disease in Switzerland, underestimation of its burden and inconsistent application of international consensus statement guidelines regarding prophylaxis and treatment adopted by the Swiss Expert Group.

Prognostic value of the Geneva prediction rule in patients in whom pulmonary embolism is ruled out.

OBJECTIVES: The prognosis of patients in whom pulmonary embolism (PE) is suspected but ruled out is poorly understood. We evaluated whether the initial assessment of clinical probability of PE could help to predict the prognosis for these patients. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of data obtained during a prospective multicentre management study. SETTING: Six general and teaching hospitals in Belgium, France and Switzerland. SUBJECTS: In 1334 patients in whom PE was ruled out, 3-month mortality data were available (hospital readmission status was unknown for three patients) and clinical probability was evaluated with the revised Geneva score (RGS). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Three-month mortality and readmission rates. RESULTS: Three-month mortality and readmissions rates were 3% and 19%, respectively and differed significantly depending on the RGS-determined PE probability group (P<0.001). When compared with patients presenting with a low probability, the risk of death after 3 months was higher in cases of intermediate or high RGS-based probability {odds ratio: 8.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.7-28.5] and 22.6 (95%CI: 2.1-241.2), respectively}. The readmission risk increased with PE probability group (P<0.001). The main causes of death were cancer, respiratory failure and cardiovascular failure. In total, 86% of patients with low RGS-based probability were alive and had not been readmitted to hospital, whereas other patients had a twofold increased risk of death or readmission during the 3-month follow-up. The simplified Geneva score, calculated a posteriori, gave similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Initial assessment of clinical probability may help to stratify prognosis of patients in whom PE has been ruled out. Patients with a low probability of PE have a good prognosis. Whether patients with higher probability might benefit from more vigilant care should be evaluated.

The pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC) rule does not safely exclude pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) rule is a clinical diagnostic rule designed to exclude pulmonary embolism (PE) without further testing. We sought to externally validate the diagnostic performance of the PERC rule alone and combined with clinical probability assessment based on the revised Geneva score. METHODS: The PERC rule was applied retrospectively to consecutive patients who presented with a clinical suspicion of PE to six emergency departments, and who were enrolled in a randomized trial of PE diagnosis. Patients who met all eight PERC criteria [PERC((-))] were considered to be at a very low risk for PE. We calculated the prevalence of PE among PERC((-)) patients according to their clinical pretest probability of PE. We estimated the negative likelihood ratio of the PERC rule to predict PE. RESULTS: Among 1675 patients, the prevalence of PE was 21.3%. Overall, 13.2% of patients were PERC((-)). The prevalence of PE was 5.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.1-9.3%] among PERC((-)) patients overall and 6.4% (95% CI: 3.7-10.8%) among those PERC((-)) patients with a low clinical pretest probability of PE. The PERC rule had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.21 (95% CI: 0.12-0.38) [corrected] for predicting PE overall, and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.38-1.06) in low-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the PERC rule alone or even when combined with the revised Geneva score cannot safely identify very low risk patients in whom PE can be ruled out without additional testing, at least in populations with a relatively high prevalence of PE.