How EU policies could reduce nutrient pollution in European inland and coastal waters.

Intensive agriculture and densely populated areas represent major sources of nutrient pollution for European inland and coastal waters, altering the aquatic ecosystems and affecting their capacity to provide ecosystem services and support economic activities. Ambitious water policies are in place in the European Union (EU) for protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems under the Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. This research quantified the current pressures of point and diffuse nitrogen and phosphorus emissions to European fresh and coastal waters (2005-2012), and analysed the effects of three policy scenarios of nutrient reduction: 1) the application of measures currently planned in the Rural Development Programmes and under the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWTD); 2) the full implementation of the UWWTD and the absence of derogations in the Nitrates Directive; 3) high reduction of nutrient, using best technologies in wastewaters treatment and optimal fertilisation in agriculture. The results of the study show that for the period 2005-2012, the nitrogen load to European seas was 3.3-4.1 TgN/y and the phosphorus load was 0.26-0.30 TgP/y. Policy measures supporting technological improvements (third scenario) could decrease the nutrient export to the seas up to 14% for nitrogen and 20% for phosphorus, improving the ecological status of rivers and lakes, but widening the nutrient imbalance in coastal ecosystems (i.e. increasing nitrogen availability with respect to phosphorus), affecting eutrophication. Further nutrient reductions could be possible by a combination of measures especially in the agricultural sector. However, without tackling current agricultural production and consumption system, the reduction might not be sufficient for achieving the goals of EU water policy in some regions. The study analysed the expected changes and the source contribution in different European regional seas, and highlights the advantages of addressing the land-sea dynamics, checking the coherence of measures taken under different policies.

Relationship between ecological condition and ecosystem services in European rivers, lakes and coastal waters.

We quantify main ecosystem services (i.e. the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being) provided by rivers, lakes, coastal waters and connected ecosystems (riparian areas and floodplains) in Europe, including water provisioning, water purification, erosion prevention, flood protection, coastal protection, and recreation. We show European maps of ecosystem service capacity, flow (actual use), sustainability and efficiency. Then we explore the relationship between the services and the ecosystem condition at the European scale, considering the ecological status of aquatic ecosystems, reported under the EU Water Framework Directive, as a measure of the ecosystem integrity and biodiversity. Our results indicate that a higher delivery of the regulating and cultural ecosystem services analysed is mostly correlated with better conditions of aquatic ecosystems. Conversely, the use of provisioning services can result in pressures on the ecosystem. This suggests the importance of maintaining good ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services in the future. These results at the continental scale, although limited to the ecosystem services under analysis, might be relevant to consider when investing in the protection and restoration of aquatic ecosystems called for by the current EU water policy and Biodiversity Strategy and by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Physical water scarcity metrics for monitoring progress towards SDG target 6.4: An evaluation of indicator 6.4.2 "Level of water stress".

Target 6.4 of the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) deals with the reduction of water scarcity. To monitor progress towards this target, two indicators are used: Indicator 6.4.1 measuring water use efficiency and 6.4.2 measuring the level of water stress (WS). This paper aims to identify whether the currently proposed indicator 6.4.2 considers the different elements that need to be accounted for in a WS indicator. WS indicators compare water use with water availability. We identify seven essential elements: 1) both gross and net water abstraction (or withdrawal) provide important information to understand WS; 2) WS indicators need to incorporate environmental flow requirements (EFR); 3) temporal and 4) spatial disaggregation is required in a WS assessment; 5) both renewable surface water and groundwater resources, including their interaction, need to be accounted for as renewable water availability; 6) alternative available water resources need to be accounted for as well, like fossil groundwater and desalinated water; 7) WS indicators need to account for water storage in reservoirs, water recycling and managed aquifer recharge. Indicator 6.4.2 considers many of these elements, but there is need for improvement. It is recommended that WS is measured based on net abstraction as well, in addition to currently only measuring WS based on gross abstraction. It does incorporate EFR. Temporal and spatial disaggregation is indeed defined as a goal in more advanced monitoring levels, in which it is also called for a differentiation between surface and groundwater resources. However, regarding element 6 and 7 there are some shortcomings for which we provide recommendations. In addition, indicator 6.4.2 is only one indicator, which monitors blue WS, but does not give information on green or green-blue water scarcity or on water quality. Within the SDG indicator framework, some of these topics are covered with other indicators.

Erratum: Human pressures and ecological status of European rivers.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML version of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Human pressures and ecological status of European rivers.

Humans have increased the discharge of pollution, altered water flow regime and modified the morphology of rivers. All these actions have resulted in multiple pressures on freshwater ecosystems, undermining their biodiversity and ecological functioning. The European Union has adopted an ambitious water policy to reduce pressures and achieve a good ecological status for all water bodies. However, assessing multiple pressures on aquatic ecosystems and understanding their combined impact on the ecological status is challenging, especially at the large scale, though crucial to the planning of effective policies. Here, for the first time, we quantify multiple human pressures and their relationship with the ecological status for all European rivers. We considered ecological data collected across Europe and pressures assessed by pan-European models, including pollution, hydrological and hydromorphological alterations. We estimated that in one third of EU's territory rivers are in good ecological status. We found that better ecological status is associated with the presence of natural areas in floodplains, while urbanisation and nutrient pollution are important predictors of ecological degradation. We explored scenarios of improvement of rivers ecological status for Europe. Our results strengthen the need to halt urban land take, curb nitrogen pollution and maintain and restore nature along rivers.

Description of nine nutrient loss models: capabilities and suitability based on their characteristics.

In EUROHARP, an EC Framework V project, which started in 2002 with 21 partners in 17 countries across Europe, a detailed intercomparison of contemporary catchment-scale modelling approaches was undertaken to characterise the relative importance of point and diffuse pollution of nutrients in surface freshwater systems. The study focused on the scientific evaluation of different modelling approaches, which were validated on three core catchments (the Ouse, UK; the Vansjo-Hobøl, Norway; and the Enza, Italy), and the application of each tool to three additional, randomly chosen catchments across Europe. The tools involved differ profoundly in their complexity, level of process representation and data requirements. The tools include simple loading models, statistical, conceptual and empirical model approaches, and physics-based (mechanistic) models. The results of a scientific intercomparison of the characteristics of these different model approaches are described. This includes an analysis of potential strengths and weaknesses of the nutrient models.

Basin characteristics and nutrient losses: the EUROHARP catchment network perspective.

The EC-funded EUROHARP project studies the harmonisation of modelling tools to quantify nutrient losses from diffuse sources. This paper describes a set of study areas used in the project from geographical conditions, to land use and land management, geological and hydro-geological perspectives. The status of data availability throughout Europe in relation to the modelling requirements is presented. The relationships between the catchment characteristics and the nutrient export are investigated, using simple data available for all the catchments. In addition, this study also analyses the hydrological representativity of the time series utilised in the EUROHARP project.

Subannual models for catchment management: evaluating model performance on three European catchments.

Models' abilities to predict nutrient losses at subannual timesteps is highly significant for evaluating policy measures, as it enables trends and the frequency of exceedance of water quality thresholds to be predicted. Subannual predictions also permit assessments of seasonality in nutrient concentrations, which are necessary to determine susceptibility to eutrophic conditions and the impact of management practices on water quality. Predictions of subannual concentrations are pertinent to EC Directives, whereas load estimates are relevant to the 50% target reduction in nutrient loading to the maritime area under OSPAR. This article considers the ability of four models (ranging from conceptual to fully mechanistic), to predict river flows, concentrations and loads of nitrogen and phosphorus on a subannual basis in catchments in Norway, England, and Italy. Results demonstrate that model performance deemed satisfactory on an annual basis may conceal considerable divergence in performance when scrutinised on a weekly or monthly basis. In most cases the four models performed satisfactorily, and mismatches between measurements and model predictions were primarily ascribed to the limitations in input data (soils in the Norwegian catchment; weather in the Italian catchment). However, results identified limitations in model conceptualisation associated with the damping and lagging effect of a large lake leading to contrasts in model performance upstream and downstream of this feature in the Norwegian catchment. For SWAT applied to the Norwegian catchment, although flow predictions were reasonable, the large number of parameters requiring identification, and the lack of familiarity with this environment, led to poor predictions of river nutrient concentrations.

Evaluation of the difference of eight model applications to assess diffuse annual nutrient losses from agricultural land.

The capability of eight nutrient models to predict annual nutrient losses (nitrogen and phosphorus) at catchment scale have been studied in the EUROHARP project. The methodologies involved in these models differ profoundly in their complexity, level of process representation and data requirements. This evaluation is focused on model performance in three core catchments: the Vansjø-Hobøl (Norway), the Ouse (Yorkshire, UK) and the Enza (Italy). These three different model applications have been evaluated by comparing calculated annual nutrient loads (total N or nitrate and total P), based on observed flow and total nitrogen or nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations, and the annual nutrient loads that were simulated by the eight nutrient models. Four statistics have been applied for this purpose: the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean error (ME), and Nash-Sutcliffe's model efficiency (NS). The results show that all model approaches can predict the calculated annual discharges. Depending on the observed statistics (RMSE, MAE, ME and NS) the scores of the model application differed, therefore no overall 'best model' could be identified. Although the water and nutrient loads from (sub)catchments can be predicted, the modelled pathways of nutrients within agricultural land and the nutrient losses to surface waters from agricultural land vary among the catchments and among those model approaches which are able to make this distinction.

Evaluation of diffuse pollution model applications in EUROHARP catchments with limited data.

The application of diffuse pollution models included in EUROHARP encompassed varying levels of parameterisation and approaches to the preparation of input data depending on the model and modelling team involved. Modellers consistently faced important decisions in relation to data interpretation, especially in those catchments with unfamiliar physical or climatic characteristics, where catchment conditions were beyond the range for which a particular model was originally developed, or where only limited input data were available. In addition to a broad discussion of data issues, this paper compares the performance of the four sub-annual output models tested in EUROHARP (EveNFlow, NL-CAT, SWAT and TRK) in three test catchments without the modelling teams having sight of measured flow and nitrate concentration data. Model performance in this "blind test" indicate that the range of predictions generated by any individual models pre and post calibration exceed the differences between the estimates yielded by all four models. Comparison of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) statistics for simulated and observed flow, concentration and loads underscores the benefits of calibration for these intermediate and complex model formulations. Interpretation of input data (e.g. rainfall interpolation method and pedotransfer functions selected) appeared equally (or more) important than process representation. In the absence of calibration data, modeller unfamiliarity with a particular catchment and its environmental processes sometimes resulted in questionable assumptions and input errors which highlight the problems facing modellers charged with implementing policies under the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) in poorly monitored catchments. Catchment data owners and modellers must therefore work more closely given that the output from diffuse pollution models is clearly modeller-limited as well as model-limited.

Ensemble modelling of nutrient loads and nutrient load partitioning in 17 European catchments.

An ensemble of nutrient models was applied in 17 European catchments to analyse the variation that appears after simulation of net nutrient loads and partitioning of nutrient loads at catchment scale. Eight models for N and five models for P were applied in three core catchments covering European-wide gradients in climate, topography, soil types and land use (Vansjø-Hobøl (Norway), Ouse (Yorkshire, UK) and Enza (Italy)). Moreover, each of the models was applied in 3-14 other EUROHARP catchments in order to inter-compare the outcome of the nutrient load partitioning at a wider European scale. The results of the nutrient load partitioning show a variation in the computed average annual nitrogen and phosphorus loss from agricultural land within the 17 catchments between 19.1-34.6 kg N ha(-1) and 0.12-1.67 kg P ha(-1). All the applied nutrient models show that the catchment specific variation (range and standard deviation) in the model results is lowest when simulating the net nutrient load and becomes increasingly higher for simulation of the gross nutrient loss from agricultural land and highest for the simulations of the gross nutrient loss from other diffuse sources in the core catchments. The average coefficient of variation for the model simulations of gross P loss from agricultural land is nearly twice as high (67%) as for the model simulations of gross N loss from agricultural land (40%). The variation involved in model simulations of net nutrient load and gross nutrient losses in European catchments was due to regional factors and the presence or absence of large lakes within the catchment.

Nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface waters: an inter-comparison of predictions by catchment models of different complexity.

Nitrogen and phosphorus retention estimates in streams and standing water bodies were compared for four European catchments by a series of catchment-scale modelling tools of different complexity, ranging from a simple, equilibrium input-output type to dynamic, physical-based models: source apportionment, MONERIS, EveNFlow, TRK, SWAT, and NL-CAT. The four catchments represent diverse climate, hydrology, and nutrient loads from diffuse and point sources in Norway, the UK, Italy, and the Czech Republic. The models' retention values varied largely, with tendencies towards higher scatters for phosphorus than for nitrogen, and for catchments with lakes (Vansjø-Hobøl, Zelivka) compared to mostly or entirely lakeless catchments (Ouse or Enza, respectively). A comparison of retention values with the size of nutrient sources showed that the modelled nutrient export from diffuse sources was directly proportional to retention estimates, hence implying that the uncertainty in quantification of diffuse catchment sources of nutrients was also related to the uncertainty in nutrient retention determination. This study demonstrates that realistic modelling of nutrient export from large catchments is very difficult without a certain level of measured data. In particular, even complex process oriented models require information on the retention capabilities of water bodies within the receiving surface water system and on the nutrient export from micro-catchments representing the major types of diffuse sources to surface waters.

A statistical approach to estimate nitrogen sectorial contribution to total load.

This study describes a source apportionment methodology for nitrogen river transport. A statistical model has been developed to determine the contribution of each source (punctual and diffuse) of nitrogen to river-mouth transport. A non-linear regression equation was developed, relating measured nitrogen transport rates in streams to spatially referenced nitrogen sources and basin characteristics. The model considers applied fertilizer, atmospheric deposition and point discharges as sources, and winter rainfall, average air temperature, topographic wetness index and dry season flow as basin characteristics. The model was calibrated in an area of 8913 km2 in East Anglia (UK). In the studied area, the average contribution of agriculture to the nitrogen load is estimated around 71%. Point sources and atmospheric deposition respectively account for 24% and 5% of the exported nitrogen. The model allowed the estimation of the contribution of each source to nitrogen emissions and the nitrogen retention in soils and waters as influenced by basin factors.