ABSTRACT
Since the emergence of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the disease has affected more than 675 million people worldwide, including more than 6.87 million deaths. To mitigate the effects of this pandemic, many countries established control measures to contain its spread. Their riposte was based on a combination of pharmaceutical (vaccination) and non-pharmaceutical (such as facemask wearing, social distancing, and quarantine) measures. In this way, cross-sectional research was conducted in Algeria from 23 December 2021 to 12 March 2022 to investigate the effectiveness of preventative interventions in lowering COVID-19 infection and severity. More specifically, we investigated the link between mask-wearing and infection on one side, and the relationship between vaccination and the risk of hospitalization on the other. For this purpose, we used binary logistic regression modeling that allows learning the role of mask-wearing and vaccination in a heterogeneous society with respect to compliance with barrier measures. This study determined that wearing a mask is equally important for people of all ages. Further, findings revealed that the risk of infection was 0.79 times lower among those who were using masks (odds ratio (OR) = 0.79; confidence interval (CI) 95% = 0.668-0.936; p-value = 0.006). At the same time, vaccination is a necessary preventive measure as the risk of hospitalization increases with age. Compared with those who did not get vaccinated, those who got vaccinated were 0.429 times less likely to end up in the hospital (OR = 0.429; CI95% = 0.273-0.676; p < 0.0001). The model performance demonstrates significant relationships between the dependent and independent variables, with the absence of over-dispersion in both studied models, such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) scores. These findings emphasize the significance of preventative measures and immunization in the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 causes acute respiratory illness in humans. The direct consequence of the spread of the virus is the need to find appropriate and effective solutions to reduce its spread. Similar to other countries, the pandemic has spread in Algeria, with noticeable variation in mortality and infection rates between regions. We aimed to estimate the proportion of people who died or became infected with SARS-CoV-2 in each provinces using a Bayesian approach. The estimation parameters were determined using a binomial distribution along with an a priori distribution, and the results had a high degree of accuracy. The Bayesian model was applied during the third wave (1 January-15 August 2021), in all Algerian's provinces. For spatial analysis of duration, geographical maps were used. Our findings show that Tissemsilt, Ain Defla, Illizi, El Taref, and Ghardaia (Mean = 0.001) are the least affected provinces in terms of COVID-19 mortality. The results also indicate that Tizi Ouzou (Mean = 0.0694), Boumerdes (Mean = 0.0520), Annaba (Mean = 0.0483), Tipaza (Mean = 0.0524), and Tebessa (Mean = 0.0264) are more susceptible to infection, as they were ranked in terms of the level of corona infections among the 48 provinces of the country. Their susceptibility seems mainly due to the population density in these provinces. Additionally, it was observed that northeast Algeria, where the population is concentrated, has the highest infection rate. Factors affecting mortality due to COVID-19 do not necessarily depend on the spread of the pandemic. The proposed Bayesian model resulted in being useful for monitoring the pandemic to estimate and compare the risks between provinces. This statistical inference can provide a reasonable basis for describing future pandemics in other world geographical areas.
