Adaptive Management of Flows in a Regulated River: Flow-ecology Relationships Revealed by a 26-year, Five-treatment Flow Experiment.

Adaptive management (AM) is often proposed as a means to resolve uncertainty in the management of socio-ecological systems but successful implementation of AM is rare. We report results from a 26 year, five-treatment, AM experiment designed to inform decision makers about the response of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) to flow releases from a dam on the regulated Bridge River, British Columbia, Canada. Treatments consisted of a baseline (no dam release) and four different dam release regimes that followed a semi-natural hydrograph but varied in the magnitude of spring-summer freshet flows. We found total salmonid biomass was highest at the lowest flow release, and decreased with increasing flow, consistent with a priori predictions made by an expert solicitation process. Species-specific responses were observed that in some cases could be attributed to interactions between the flow regime and life history. The relationship between juvenile biomass and flow resulting from the experiment can inform decisions on water management for this river. The documentation of successful AM experiments is sorely needed to allow for reflection on the circumstances when AM is likely to deliver desirable outcomes, and to improve other decision processes that require fewer resources and less time to implement.

Chinook salmon diversity contributes to fishery stability and trade-offs with mixed-stock harvest.

Variation among populations in life history and intrinsic population characteristics (i.e., population diversity) helps maintain resilience to environmental change and dampen interannual variability in ecosystem services. As a result, ecological variation, and the processes that generate it, is considered central to strategies for managing risks to ecosystems in an increasingly variable and uncertain world. However, characterizing population diversity is difficult, particularly in large and remote regions, which often prevents its formal consideration in management advice. We combined genetic stock identification of archived scale and tissue samples with state-space run-reconstruction models to estimate migration timing and annual return abundance for eight geographically and genetically distinct Chinook salmon populations within the Canadian portion of the Yukon River. We found that among-population variation in migration timing and return abundances resulted in aggregate return migrations that were 2.1 times longer and 1.4 times more stable than if they had composed a single homogeneous population. We then fit state-space spawner-recruitment models to the annual return abundances to characterize among-population diversity in intrinsic productivity and population size and their consequences for the fisheries they support. Productivity and carrying capacity varied among populations by approximately 2.4-fold (2.9 to 6.9 recruits per spawner) and three-fold (8800 to 27,000 spawners), respectively. This diversity implies an equilibrium trade-off between harvesting of the population aggregate and the conservation of individual populations whereby the harvest rate predicted to maximize aggregate harvests comes at the cost of overfishing ~40% of the populations but with a relatively low risk of extirpating the weakest ones. Our findings illustrate how population diversity in one of the largest salmon-producing river basins in the world contributes to fishery stability and food security in a region where salmon have high cultural and subsistence value. More generally, our work demonstrates the utility of molecular analyses of archived biological material for characterizing diversity in biological systems and its benefits and consequences for trade-offs in decision-making.

Can the creation of new freshwater habitat demographically offset losses of Pacific salmon from chronic anthropogenic mortality?

Over 1 billion USD are devoted annually to rehabilitating freshwater habitats to improve survival for the recovery of endangered salmon populations. Mitigation often requires the creation of new habitat (e.g. habitat offsetting) to compensate population losses from human activities, however offsetting schemes are rarely evaluated. Anadromous Pacific salmon are ecologically, culturally, and economically important in the US and Canada, and face numerous threats from degradation of freshwater habitats. Here we used a matrix population model of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) to determine the amount of habitat offsetting needed to compensate mortality (2-20% per year) caused by a range of development activities. We simulated chronic mortality to three different life stages (egg, parr, smolt/adult), individually and simultaneously, to mimic impacts from development, and evaluated if the number of smolts produced from constructed side-channels demographically offset losses. We show that under ideal conditions, the typical size of a constructed side-channel in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) (3405 m2) is sufficient to compensate for only relatively low levels of chronic mortality to either the parr or smolt/adult stages (2-7% per year), but populations do not recover if mortality is >10% per year. When we assumed lower productivity (e.g.; 25th percentile), we found that constructed channels would need to be 2.5-4.5 fold larger as compared to the typical size built in the PNW, respectively, to maintain population sizes. Moreover, when we imposed mortality to parr and smolt/adult stages simultaneously, we found that constructed side-channels would need to be between 1.8- and 2.3- fold larger that if the extra chronic mortality was imposed to one life stage only. We conclude that habitat offsetting has the potential to mitigate chronic mortality to early life stages, but that realistic assumptions about productivity of constructed side-channels and cumulative effects of anthropogenic disturbances on multiple life stages need to be considered.

Accounting for Uncertainty and Time Lags in Equivalency Calculations for Offsetting in Aquatic Resources Management Programs.

Biodiversity offset programs attempt to minimize unavoidable environmental impacts of anthropogenic activities by requiring offsetting measures in sufficient quantity to counterbalance losses due to the activity. Multipliers, or offsetting ratios, have been used to increase the amount of offsets to account for uncertainty but those ratios have generally been derived from theoretical or ad-hoc considerations. I analyzed uncertainty in the offsetting process in the context of offsetting for impacts to freshwater fisheries productivity. For aquatic habitats I demonstrate that an empirical risk-based approach for evaluating prediction uncertainty is feasible, and if data are available appropriate adjustments to offset requirements can be estimated. For two data-rich examples I estimate multipliers in the range of 1.5:1 - 2.5:1 are sufficient to account for the uncertainty in the prediction of gains and losses. For aquatic habitats adjustments for time delays in the delivery of offset benefits can also be calculated and are likely smaller than those for prediction uncertainty. However, the success of a biodiversity offsetting program will also depend on the management of the other components of risk not addressed by these adjustments.

Bayesian decision analysis for evaluating management options to promote recovery of a depleted salmon population.

The endangered population of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Cultus Lake, British Columbia, Canada, migrates through commercial fishing areas along with other, much more abundant sockeye salmon populations, but it is not feasible to selectively harvest only the latter, abundant populations. This situation creates controversial trade-offs between recovery actions and economic revenue. We conducted a Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate options for recovery of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We used a stochastic population model that included 2 sources of uncertainty that are often omitted from such analyses: structural uncertainty in the magnitude of a potential Allee effect and implementation uncertainty (the deviation between targets and actual outcomes of management actions). Numerous state-dependent, time-independent management actions meet recovery objectives. These actions prescribe limitations on commercial harvest rates as a function of abundance of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We also quantified how much reduction in economic value of commercial harvests of the more abundant sockeye salmon populations would be expected for a given increase in the probability of recovery of the Cultus population. Such results illustrate how Bayesian decision analysis can rank options for dealing with conservation risks and can help inform trade-off discussions among decision makers and among groups that have competing objectives.

Valuing freshwater salmon habitat on the west coast of Canada.

Changes in land use can potentially reduce the quality of fish habitat and affect the economic value of commercial and sport fisheries that rely on the affected stocks. Parks and protected areas that restrict land-use activities provide benefits, such as ecosystem services, in addition to recreation and preservation of wildlife. Placing values on these other benefits of protected areas poses a major challenge for land-use planning. In this paper, we present a framework for valuing benefits for fisheries from protecting areas from degradation, using the example of the Strait of Georgia coho salmon fishery in southern British Columbia, Canada. Our study improves upon previous methods used to value fish habitat in two major respects. First, we use a bioeconomic model of the coho fishery to derive estimates of value that are consistent with economic theory. Second, we estimate the value of changing the quality of fish habitat by using empirical analyses to link fish population dynamics with indices of land use in surrounding watersheds. In our example, we estimated that the value of protecting habitat ecosystem services is C$0.93 to C$2.63 per ha of drainage basin or about C$1322 to C$7010 per km of salmon stream length (C$1.00=US$0.71). Sensitivity analyses suggest that these values are relatively robust to different assumptions, and if anything, are likely to be minimum estimates. Thus, when comparing alternative uses of land, managers should consider ecosystem services from maintaining habitat for productive fish populations along with other benefits of protected areas.

Genetic and phenotypic sources of life history variation along a cline in voltinism in the cricket Allonemobius socius.

Clinal variation in life histories can be genetically based, resulting from selection imposed by different environments, or it may be due to the differential expression of phenotypically plastic traits. We examined the cline in voltinism in the egg-diapausing cricket Allonemobius socius, with populations spanning the switch from a univoltine to a bivoltine phenology. A common garden experiment was employed, using environments that mimicked photoperiod and temperature conditions found in the field. There were only small differences in development time among populations, and the difference in phenology observed in the field is likely due to clinal variation in the length of the growing season. We found large genetically-based differences in the reaction norm for egg diapause that were further magnified by environmental cues. The synergism of genetic and environmental effects was an example of cogradient selection. In the zone of transition between phenologies, voltinism appeared to be a conditional strategy, rather than a genetic polymorphism. First-generation females from this area can lay either direct-developing or diapause eggs depending on the likelihood that a second generation will have sufficient time to develop. For this species, the cline in voltinism is the result of a combination of environmental effects on development, and genetic and environmental influences on egg diapause propensity.

Testing hypotheses of adaptive variation in cricket ovipositor lengths.

We experimentally tested a series of hypotheses proposed by Masaki (1979, 1986) for the evolution of ovipositor length in crickets. Female crickets use the ovipositor to bury eggs in the soil, where it was hypothesized to protect their eggs from desiccation, cold and other disturbance. However, we found no effect of depth on the overwinter survival of eggs of three species of Nemobiinae. The probability of hatchlings reaching the soil surface was negatively correlated with depth documenting a significant cost to females laying eggs deep in the soil. Hatchling survival may be an important agent of selection on ovipositor length in habitats of different soil moistures. Hatchling survival in the soil was also correlated with body size, which may impose a constraint on egg-size fecundity trade-offs. Females of a bivoltine population of Allonemobius socius lay eggs at shallower depths when reared under summer compared to fall conditions and, therefore, may be able to respond to selection through behavioral plasticity when morphological adaptation is constrained by allometry.