Effect of pirfenidone on mortality: pooled analyses and meta-analyses of clinical trials in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: In clinical trials of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, rates of all-cause mortality are low. Thus prospective mortality trials are logistically very challenging, justifying the use of pooled analyses or meta-analyses. We did pooled analyses and meta-analyses of clinical trials of pirfenidone versus placebo to determine the effect of pirfenidone on mortality outcomes over 120 weeks. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of the combined patient populations of the three global randomised phase 3 trials of pirfenidone versus placebo-Clinical Studies Assessing Pirfenidone in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Research of Efficacy and Safety Outcomes (CAPACITY 004 and 006; trial durations 72-120 weeks) and Assessment of Pirfenidone to Confirm Efficacy and Safety in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (ASCEND 016; 52 weeks)-for all-cause mortality, treatment-emergent all-cause mortality, idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-related mortality, and treatment-emergent idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-related mortality at weeks 52, 72, and 120. We also did meta-analyses of these data and data from two Japanese trials of pirfenidone versus placebo-Shionogi Phase 2 (SP2) and Shionogi Phase 3 (SP3; trial durations 36-52 weeks). FINDINGS: At week 52, the relative risk of death for all four mortality outcomes was significantly lower in the pirfenidone group than in the placebo group in the pooled population (all-cause mortality hazard ratio [HR] 0·52 [95% CI 0·31-0·87; p=0·0107]; treatment-emergent all-cause mortality 0·45 [0·24-0·83; 0·0094]; idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-related mortality 0·35 [0·17-0·72; 0·0029]; treatment-emergent idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-related mortality 0·32 [0·14-0·76; 0·0061]). Consistent with the pooled analysis, meta-analyses for all-cause mortality at week 52 also showed a clinically relevant and significant risk reduction in the pirfenidone group compared with the placebo group. Over 120 weeks, we noted significant differences in the pooled analysis favouring pirfenidone therapy compared with placebo for treatment-emergent all-cause mortality (p=0·0420), idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-related mortality (0·0237), and treatment-emergent idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-related (0·0132) mortality; similar results were shown by meta-analyses. INTERPRETATION: Several analytic approaches demonstrated that pirfenidone therapy is associated with a reduction in the relative risk of mortality compared with placebo over 120 weeks. FUNDING: F Hoffmann-La Roche/Genentech.

Genome-wide imputation study identifies novel HLA locus for pulmonary fibrosis and potential role for auto-immunity in fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (fIIP) are a group of fatal lung diseases with largely unknown etiology and without definitive treatment other than lung transplant to prolong life. There is strong evidence for the importance of both rare and common genetic risk alleles in familial and sporadic disease. We have previously used genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data to identify 10 risk loci for fIIP. Here we extend that work to imputed genome-wide genotypes and conduct new RNA sequencing studies of lung tissue to identify and characterize new fIIP risk loci. RESULTS: We performed genome-wide genotype imputation association analyses in 1616 non-Hispanic white (NHW) cases and 4683 NHW controls followed by validation and replication (878 cases, 2017 controls) genotyping and targeted gene expression in lung tissue. Following meta-analysis of the discovery and replication populations, we identified a novel fIIP locus in the HLA region of chromosome 6 (rs7887 P meta = 3.7 × 10(-09)). Imputation of classic HLA alleles identified two in high linkage disequilibrium that are associated with fIIP (DRB1*15:01 P = 1.3 × 10(-7) and DQB1*06:02 P = 6.1 × 10(-8)). Targeted RNA-sequencing of the HLA locus identified 21 genes differentially expressed between fibrotic and control lung tissue (Q < 0.001), many of which are involved in immune and inflammatory response regulation. In addition, the putative risk alleles, DRB1*15:01 and DQB1*06:02, are associated with expression of the DQB1 gene among fIIP cases (Q < 1 × 10(-16)). CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a genome-wide significant association between the HLA region and fIIP. Two HLA alleles are associated with fIIP and affect expression of HLA genes in lung tissue, indicating that the potential genetic risk due to HLA alleles may involve gene regulation in addition to altered protein structure. These studies reveal the importance of the HLA region for risk of fIIP and a basis for the potential etiologic role of auto-immunity in fIIP.

Effect of continued treatment with pirfenidone following clinically meaningful declines in forced vital capacity: analysis of data from three phase 3 trials in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of treatment response in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is complicated by the variable clinical course. We examined the variability in the rate of disease progression and evaluated the effect of continued treatment with pirfenidone in patients who experienced meaningful progression during treatment. METHODS: The source population included patients enrolled in the ASCEND and CAPACITY trials (N=1247). Pearson's correlation coefficients were used to characterise the relationship between changes in FVC during consecutive 6-month intervals in the placebo population. Outcomes following a ≥10% decline in FVC were evaluated by comparing the proportion of patients in the pirfenidone and placebo groups who experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC or death during the subsequent 6 months. RESULTS: A weak negative correlation was observed between FVC changes during consecutive intervals in the placebo population (coefficient, -0.146, p<0.001), indicating substantial variability. Thirty-four (5.5%) and 68 (10.9%) patients in the pirfenidone and placebo groups, respectively, experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC by month 6. During the subsequent 6 months, fewer patients in the pirfenidone group compared with placebo experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC or death (5.9% vs 27.9%; relative difference, 78.9%). There was one (2.9%) death in the pirfenidone group and 14 (20.6%) deaths in the placebo group (relative difference, 85.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal FVC data from patients with IPF showed substantial intrasubject variability, underscoring the inability to reliably assess therapeutic response using serial FVC trends. In patients who progressed during treatment, continued treatment with pirfenidone resulted in a lower risk of subsequent FVC decline or death. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: NCT01366209, NCT00287729, NCT00287716.

Precision Medicine: The New Frontier in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Precision medicine is defined by the National Institute of Health's Precision Medicine Initiative Working Group as an approach to disease treatment that takes into account individual variability in genes, environment, and lifestyle. There has been increased interest in applying the concept of precision medicine to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, in particular to search for genetic and molecular biomarker-based profiles (so called endotypes) that identify mechanistically distinct disease subgroups. The relevance of precision medicine to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is yet to be established, but we believe that it holds great promise to provide targeted and highly effective therapies to patients. In this manuscript, we describe the field's nascent efforts in genetic/molecular endotype identification and how environmental and behavioral subgroups may also be relevant to disease management.

Predictors of Mortality Poorly Predict Common Measures of Disease Progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Mortality prediction is well studied in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but little is known about predictors of premortality disease progression. Identification of patients at risk for disease progression would be useful for clinical decision-making and designing clinical trials. OBJECTIVES: To develop prediction models for disease progression in IPF. METHODS: In a large clinical trial cohort of patients with IPF (n = 1,113), we comprehensively screened multivariate models of candidate baseline and past-change predictors for disease progression defined by 48-week worsening of FVC, dyspnea (University of California, San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire [UCSD SOBQ]), 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD), and occurrence of respiratory hospitalization, or death. Progression outcomes were modeled as appropriate, by slope change using linear regression models and time to binary outcomes using Cox proportional hazards models. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The overall cohort experienced considerable disease progression. Top-performing prediction models did not meaningfully predict most measures of disease progression. For example, prediction modeling explained less than or equal to 1% of the observed variation in 48-week slope change in FVC, UCSD SOBQ, and 6MWD. Models performed better for binary measures of time to disease progression but were still largely inaccurate (cross-validated C statistic ≤0.63 for ≥10% decline in FVC or death, ≤0.68 for ≥20-U increase in UCSD SOBQ or death, ≤0.70 for ≥100 m decline in 6MWD or death). Models for time to respiratory hospitalization or death (C statistic ≤0.77) or death alone (C statistic ≤0.81) demonstrated acceptable discriminative performance. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical prediction models poorly predicted physiologic and functional disease progression in IPF. This is in contrast to respiratory hospitalization and mortality prediction.

Safety of pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: integrated analysis of cumulative data from 5 clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Pirfenidone is an oral antifibrotic agent that has been shown to reduce the decline in lung function in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We performed an integrated analysis of safety data from five clinical trials evaluating pirfenidone in patients with IPF. METHODS: All patients treated with pirfenidone in the three multinational Phase 3 studies (CAPACITY (studies 004 and 006), ASCEND (study 016)) and two ongoing open-label studies (study 002 and study 012 (RECAP)) were included in the analysis. Safety outcomes were assessed during the period from the first dose until 28 days after the last dose of study drug. RESULTS: A total of 1299 patients were included in the analysis. The cumulative total exposure to pirfenidone was 3160 person exposure years (PEY). The median duration of exposure was 1.7 years (range 1 week to 9.9 years), and the mean (±SD) daily dose was 2053.8 (±484.9) mg. Gastrointestinal events (nausea (37.6%), diarrhoea (28.1%), dyspepsia (18.4%), vomiting (15.9%)) and rash (25.0%) were the most common adverse events; these were generally mild to moderate in severity and without significant clinical consequence. Elevations in alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase greater than three times the upper limit of normal occurred in 40/1299 (3.1%) patients (adjusted incidence, 2.3 per 100 PEY). Elevations were generally transient and reversible with dose modification or discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive analysis of safety outcomes in a large and well-defined cohort of 1299 patients with IPF who were followed prospectively for up to 9.9 years demonstrated that long-term treatment with pirfenidone is safe and generally well tolerated. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: NCT00287716, NCT00287729, NCT00662038, NCT01366209.

Pirfenidone for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: analysis of pooled data from three multinational phase 3 trials.

Pirfenidone is an antifibrotic agent that has been evaluated in three multinational phase 3 trials in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We analysed pooled data from the multinational trials to obtain the most precise estimates of the magnitude of treatment effect on measures of disease progression.All patients randomised to pirfenidone 2403 mg·day(-1) or placebo in the CAPACITY or ASCEND studies were included in the analysis. Pooled analyses of outcomes at 1 year were based on the pre-specified end-points and analytic methods described in the ASCEND study protocol.A total of 1247 patients were included in the analysis. At 1 year, pirfenidone reduced the proportion of patients with a ≥10% decline in per cent predicted forced vital capacity or death by 43.8% (95% CI 29.3-55.4%) and increased the proportion of patients with no decline by 59.3% (95% CI 29.0-96.8%). A treatment benefit was also observed for progression-free survival, 6-min walk distance and dyspnoea. Gastrointestinal and skin-related adverse events were more common in the pirfenidone group, but rarely led to discontinuation.Analysis of data from three phase 3 trials demonstrated that treatment with pirfenidone for 1 year resulted in clinically meaningful reductions in disease progression in patients with IPF.

Validation of test performance characteristics and minimal clinically important difference of the 6-minute walk test in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: The 6-minute walk test distance (6MWD) has been shown to be a valid and responsive outcome measure in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The analyses were based, however, on a single phase 3 trial and require validation in an independent cohort. OBJECTIVE: To confirm the performance characteristics and estimates of minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of 6MWD in an independent cohort of patients with IPF. METHODS: Patients randomized to placebo in the phase 3 CAPACITY trials who had a baseline 6MWD measurement were included in these analyses. The 6MWD and other functional parameters (lung function, dyspnea, and health-related quality of life) were measured at baseline and 24-week intervals. Validity and responsiveness were examined using Spearman correlation coefficients. The MCID was estimated using distribution- and anchor-based methods. RESULTS: The analysis comprised 338 patients. Baseline 6MWD was significantly correlated with lung function measures, patient-reported outcomes, and quality-of-life measures (validity). Compared with baseline 6MWD, change in 6MWD (responsiveness) showed stronger correlations with change in lung function parameters and quality-of-life measures. Dyspnea measured by the University of California San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire showed the strongest correlations with 6MWD (baseline: coefficient -0.35; 48-week change: coefficient -0.37; both p < 0.001). The distribution-based analyses of MCID using standard error of measurement yielded an MCID of 37 m, and distribution-based analyses by effect size resulted in 29.2 m. The MCID by anchor-based analysis using criterion referencing (health events of hospitalization or death) was 21.7 m. CONCLUSIONS: The 6MWD is a valid and responsive clinical endpoint, which provides objective and clinically meaningful information regarding functional status and near-term prognosis. These results confirm previous findings in an independent cohort of patients with IPF.

A new era in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: considerations for future clinical trials.

The past decade has seen substantial progress in understanding the pathobiology, natural history, and clinical significance of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), culminating in the establishment of two effective medical therapies. Now seems an important time to reconsider the design and conduct of future IPF clinical trials. Building on lessons learned over the past decade, we use this perspective to lay out four key considerations for moving forward effectively and efficiently with the next generation of clinical trials in IPF. These are: development of a coordinated IPF clinical trials network; establishment of expectations for early phase proof of concept studies; adaptation of late-phase efficacy trial designs to the emergence of approved therapies, and; agreement on primary end-points for late phase clinical trials. Continued progress in the field of IPF will require creativity and collaboration on the part of all stakeholders. We believe that addressing these four considerations will encourage and enable investment in this new era of drug development in IPF, and will lead to more rapid development of effective therapies.

Sensitivity Analyses of the Change in FVC in a Phase 3 Trial of Pirfenidone for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: FVC outcomes in clinical trials on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) can be substantially influenced by the analytic methodology and the handling of missing data. We conducted a series of sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the statistical finding and the stability of the estimate of the magnitude of treatment effect on the primary end point of FVC change in a phase 3 trial evaluating pirfenidone in adults with IPF. METHODS: Source data included all 555 study participants randomized to treatment with pirfenidone or placebo in the Assessment of Pirfenidone to Confirm Efficacy and Safety in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (ASCEND) study. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess whether alternative statistical tests and methods for handling missing data influenced the observed magnitude of treatment effect on the primary end point of change from baseline to week 52 in FVC. RESULTS: The distribution of FVC change at week 52 was systematically different between the two treatment groups and favored pirfenidone in each analysis. The method used to impute missing data due to death had a marked effect on the magnitude of change in FVC in both treatment groups; however, the magnitude of treatment benefit was generally consistent on a relative basis, with an approximate 50% reduction in FVC decline observed in the pirfenidone group in each analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm the robustness of the statistical finding on the primary end point of change in FVC in the ASCEND trial and corroborate the estimated magnitude of the pirfenidone treatment effect in patients with IPF. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01366209; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Unified baseline and longitudinal mortality prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) model is a validated, baseline-risk prediction model for mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Longitudinal variables have been shown to contribute to risk prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and may improve the predictive performance of the baseline GAP model. Our aims were to further validate the GAP model and evaluate whether the addition of longitudinal variables improves its predictive performance. The study population was derived from a large clinical trials cohort of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n=1109). Model performance was determined by improvement in the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement, clinical net reclassification improvement, and a goodness-of-fit test. The GAP model had good discriminative performance with a C-statistic of 0.757 (95% CI 0.750-0.764). However, the original GAP model tended to overestimate risk in this cohort. A novel, easy to use model, consisting of the original GAP predictors plus history of respiratory hospitalisation and 24-week change in forced vital capacity (the longitudinal GAP model) improved model performance with a C-statistic of 0.785 (95% CI 0.780-0.790), net reclassification improvement of 8.5%, clinical net reclassification improvement of 25%, and a goodness-of-fit test of 0.929. The Longitudinal GAP model, along with the original GAP model, may unify baseline and longitudinal mortality risk prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Analysis of lung function and survival in RECAP: An open-label extension study of pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: RECAP is an open-label extension study evaluating pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) who completed the Phase 3 CAPACITY program. OBJECTIVE: We examined the effect of pirfenidone on lung function and survival in patients who were previously randomised to the placebo group in one of the two CAPACITY studies and received pirfenidone for the first time in RECAP. METHODS: Eligible patients received oral pirfenidone 2403 mg/day. Forced vital capacity (FVC) was measured at baseline and at weeks 12, 36, and 60. To facilitate comparison with CAPACITY outcomes, analyses were based on patients newly treated with pirfenidone in RECAP who had baseline FVC and carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) values that met CAPACITY entry criteria. RESULTS: A total of 178 patients were included in the analysis. Among these, 16.3% experienced an FVC decline ≥10% at week 60, compared with 16.8% and 24.8%, respectively, in the CAPACITY pirfenidone (n=345) and placebo (n=347) groups. The mean change from baseline to week 60 in %FVC was -5.9%, compared with -7.0% and -9.4% in the CAPACITY pirfenidone and placebo groups. Overall survival was similar to that of pirfenidone treated patients in CAPACITY. Treatment was safe and generally well tolerated; the type and frequency of adverse events were consistent with previous clinical experience. CONCLUSION: FVC and survival outcomes in IPF patients newly treated with pirfenidone in RECAP were similar to those in the CAPACITY pirfenidone group. These data provide further evidence to support the use of pirfenidone in patients with IPF.

A phase 3 trial of pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: In two of three phase 3 trials, pirfenidone, an oral antifibrotic therapy, reduced disease progression, as measured by the decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) or vital capacity, in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; in the third trial, this end point was not achieved. We sought to confirm the beneficial effect of pirfenidone on disease progression in such patients. METHODS: In this phase 3 study, we randomly assigned 555 patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis to receive either oral pirfenidone (2403 mg per day) or placebo for 52 weeks. The primary end point was the change in FVC or death at week 52. Secondary end points were the 6-minute walk distance, progression-free survival, dyspnea, and death from any cause or from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. RESULTS: In the pirfenidone group, as compared with the placebo group, there was a relative reduction of 47.9% in the proportion of patients who had an absolute decline of 10 percentage points or more in the percentage of the predicted FVC or who died; there was also a relative increase of 132.5% in the proportion of patients with no decline in FVC (P<0.001). Pirfenidone reduced the decline in the 6-minute walk distance (P=0.04) and improved progression-free survival (P<0.001). There was no significant between-group difference in dyspnea scores (P=0.16) or in rates of death from any cause (P=0.10) or from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (P=0.23). However, in a prespecified pooled analysis incorporating results from two previous phase 3 trials, the between-group difference favoring pirfenidone was significant for death from any cause (P=0.01) and from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (P=0.006). Gastrointestinal and skin-related adverse events were more common in the pirfenidone group than in the placebo group but rarely led to treatment discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: Pirfenidone, as compared with placebo, reduced disease progression, as reflected by lung function, exercise tolerance, and progression-free survival, in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Treatment was associated with an acceptable side-effect profile and fewer deaths. (Funded by InterMune; ASCEND ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01366209.).

Comprehensive assessment of the long-term safety of pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Pirfenidone is an oral antifibrotic agent that is approved in several countries for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We performed a comprehensive analysis of safety across four clinical trials evaluating pirfenidone in patients with IPF. METHODS: All patients receiving pirfenidone 2403 mg/day in the Phase 3 CAPACITY studies (Studies 004 and 006) and all patients receiving at least one dose of pirfenidone in one of two ongoing open-label studies in patients with IPF (Studies 002 and 012) were selected for inclusion. Safety outcomes were evaluated from baseline until 28 days after the last dose of study drug. RESULTS: A total of 789 patients were included in the analysis. The median duration of exposure to pirfenidone was 2.6 years (range, 1 week-7.7 years), and the cumulative total exposure was 2059 person exposure years (PEY). Gastrointestinal and skin-related events were the most commonly reported adverse events; these were almost always mild to moderate in severity, and rarely led to treatment discontinuation. Elevations (>3× upper limit of normal) in alanine aminotransferase (ALT) or aspartate aminotransferase (AST) occurred in 21/789 (2.7%) patients; the adjusted incidence of AST/ALT elevations was 1.7 per 100 PEY. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive analysis of safety in a large cohort of IPF patients receiving pirfenidone for a total of 2059 PEY demonstrates that long-term treatment with pirfenidone is safe and generally well tolerated.

All-cause mortality rate in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Implications for the design and execution of clinical trials.

RATIONALE: FVC has emerged as a standard primary endpoint in clinical trials evaluating novel therapies for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). However, it has recently been proposed that all-cause mortality or a composite comprised of all-cause mortality and all-cause nonelective hospitalization be adopted as the standard primary endpoint for IPF clinical trials. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of mortality in three phase 3 clinical trials and evaluate the feasibility of mortality trials in patients with IPF. METHODS: The study population included 622 patients randomized to placebo in the CAPACITY studies evaluating pirfenidone (n = 347) or the INSPIRE study evaluating interferon-γ1b (n = 275). The Kaplan-Meier estimate of 2-year survival was fit to the exponential distribution and used to calculate sample size requirements for a mortality study with 90% power to detect a 25% reduction in all-cause mortality with a two-sided α of 0.05. Modeling analyses were used to assess the effects of selected variables on sample size and study design. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 73 deaths occurred during the period of observation (mean duration of follow-up, 80.1 wk). The all-cause mortality rate was 6.6% at 1 year and 13.7% at 2 years. Based on the observed 2-year mortality rate, a total of 508 events would be required to detect a significant treatment benefit in a two-arm trial with 90% power to detect a 25% reduction in all-cause mortality. The estimated sample size for a trial enrolled over 3 years with a maximum follow-up period of 5 years is 2,582 patients. CONCLUSIONS: The all-cause mortality rate is relatively low in patients with IPF with mild to moderate impairment in lung function. Accordingly, the necessary size, duration, and cost of all-cause mortality trials in this population are substantial and likely prohibitive.

6-Minute walk distance is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

6-min walk distance (6MWD) has recently been shown to be associated with the risk of mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF); however, the independent contribution of 6MWD to the prediction of mortality risk has not been evaluated in a large, well-defined population of patients with IPF. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to characterise the relationship between risk factors of interest and all-cause mortality in IPF patients who completed a week 24 study visit in a clinical trial evaluating interferon γ-1b (n=748). Risk factors of interest included the independent predictors of mortality in the previously published clinical prediction model together with 6MWD and 24-week change in 6MWD. Baseline 6MWD <250 m was associated with a two-fold increase in the risk of mortality (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.15-3.92) and a 24-week decline in 6MWD >50 m was associated with a nearly three-fold increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio 2.73; 95% CI 1.60-4.66). Inclusion of 6MWD data improved model discrimination compared with the original model (C-statistic 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.85) versus 0.75 (0.71-0.79)). Both 6MWD and change in 6MWD are independent predictors of mortality in patients with IPF. The addition of 6MWD to the clinical prediction model improves model discrimination compared with the original model.

Genome-wide association study identifies multiple susceptibility loci for pulmonary fibrosis.

We performed a genome-wide association study of non-Hispanic, white individuals with fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs; n = 1,616) and controls (n = 4,683), with follow-up replication analyses in 876 cases and 1,890 controls. We confirmed association with TERT at 5p15, MUC5B at 11p15 and the 3q26 region near TERC, and we identified seven newly associated loci (Pmeta = 2.4 × 10(-8) to 1.1 × 10(-19)), including FAM13A (4q22), DSP (6p24), OBFC1 (10q24), ATP11A (13q34), DPP9 (19p13) and chromosomal regions 7q22 and 15q14-15. Our results suggest that genes involved in host defense, cell-cell adhesion and DNA repair contribute to risk of fibrotic IIPs.

Forced vital capacity in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: test properties and minimal clinically important difference.

RATIONALE: Forced vital capacity (FVC) is an established measure of pulmonary function in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Evidence regarding its measurement properties and minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in this population is limited. OBJECTIVES: To assess the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of FVC and estimate the MCID in patients with IPF. METHODS: The study population included all 1,156 randomized patients in two clinical trials of IFN-γ1b. FVC and other measures of functional status were measured at screening or baseline and 24-week intervals thereafter. Reliability was assessed based on two proximal measures of FVC, validity was assessed based on correlations between FVC and other measures of functional status, and responsiveness was assessed based on the relationship between 24-week changes in FVC and other measures of functional status. Distribution-based and anchor-based methods were used to estimate the MCID. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Correlation of percent-predicted FVC between measurements (mean interval, 18 d) was high (r = 0.93; P < 0.001). Correlations between FVC and other parameters were generally weak, with the strongest observed correlation between FVC and carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (r = 0.38; P < 0.001). Correlations between change in FVC and changes in other parameters were slightly stronger (range, r = 0.16-0.37; P < 0.001). Importantly, 1-year risk of death was more than twofold higher (P < 0.001) in patients with a 24-week decline in FVC between 5% and 10%. The estimated MCID was 2-6%. CONCLUSIONS: FVC is a reliable, valid, and responsive measure of clinical status in patients with IPF, and a decline of 2-6%, although small, represents a clinically important difference.