Shannon information criterion for low-high diversity transition in Moran and voter models.

Mutation and drift play opposite roles in genetics. While mutation creates diversity, drift can cause gene variants to disappear, especially when they are rare. In the absence of natural selection and migration, the balance between the drift and mutation in a well-mixed population defines its diversity. The Moran model captures the effects of these two evolutionary forces and has a counterpart in social dynamics, known as the voter model with external opinion influencers. Two extreme outcomes of the voter model dynamics are consensus and coexistence of opinions, which correspond to low and high diversity in the Moran model. Here we use a Shannon's information-theoretic approach to characterize the smooth transition between the states of consensus and coexistence of opinions in the voter model. Mapping the Moran into the voter model, we extend the results to the mutation-drift balance and characterize the transition between low and high diversity in finite populations. Describing the population as a network of connected individuals, we show that the transition between the two regimes depends on the network topology of the population and on the possible asymmetries in the mutation rates.

Patterns of ties in problem-solving networks and their dynamic properties.

Understanding the functions carried out by network subgraphs is important to revealing the organizing principles of diverse complex networks. Here, we study this question in the context of collaborative problem-solving, which is central to a variety of domains from engineering and medicine to economics and social planning. We analyze the frequency of all three- and four-node subgraphs in diverse real problem-solving networks. The results reveal a strong association between a dynamic property of network subgraphs-synchronizability-and the frequency and significance of these subgraphs in problem-solving networks. In particular, we show that highly-synchronizable subgraphs are overrepresented in the networks, while poorly-synchronizable subgraphs are underrepresented, suggesting that dynamical properties affect their prevalence, and thus the global structure of networks. We propose the possibility that selective pressures that favor more synchronizable subgraphs could account for their abundance in problem-solving networks. The empirical results also show that unrelated problem-solving networks display very similar local network structure, implying that network subgraphs could represent organizational routines that enable better coordination and control of problem-solving activities. The findings could also have potential implications in understanding the functionality of network subgraphs in other information-processing networks, including biological and social networks.

Voting contagion: Modeling and analysis of a century of U.S. presidential elections.

Social influence plays an important role in human behavior and decisions. Sources of influence can be divided as external, which are independent of social context, or as originating from peers, such as family and friends. An important question is how to disentangle the social contagion by peers from external influences. While a variety of experimental and observational studies provided insight into this problem, identifying the extent of contagion based on large-scale observational data with an unknown network structure remains largely unexplored. By bridging the gap between the large-scale complex systems perspective of collective human dynamics and the detailed approach of social sciences, we present a parsimonious model of social influence, and apply it to a central topic in political science-elections and voting behavior. We provide an analytical expression of the county vote-share distribution, which is in excellent agreement with almost a century of observed U.S. presidential election data. Analyzing the social influence topography over this period reveals an abrupt phase transition from low to high levels of social contagion, and robust differences among regions. These results suggest that social contagion effects are becoming more instrumental in shaping large-scale collective political behavior, with implications on democratic electoral processes and policies.

Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic.

Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry--direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.

Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008 are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.

Dynamic model of time-dependent complex networks.

The characterization of the "most connected" nodes in static or slowly evolving complex networks has helped in understanding and predicting the behavior of social, biological, and technological networked systems, including their robustness against failures, vulnerability to deliberate attacks, and diffusion properties. However, recent empirical research of large dynamic networks (characterized by irregular connections that evolve rapidly) has demonstrated that there is little continuity in degree centrality of nodes over time, even when their degree distributions follow a power law. This unexpected dynamic centrality suggests that the connections in these systems are not driven by preferential attachment or other known mechanisms. We present an approach to explain real-world dynamic networks and qualitatively reproduce these dynamic centrality phenomena. This approach is based on a dynamic preferential attachment mechanism, which exhibits a sharp transition from a base pure random walk scheme.

Topology of large-scale engineering problem-solving networks.

The last few years have led to a series of discoveries that uncovered statistical properties that are common to a variety of diverse real-world social, information, biological, and technological networks. The goal of the present paper is to investigate the statistical properties of networks of people engaged in distributed problem solving and discuss their significance. We show that problem-solving networks have properties (sparseness, small world, scaling regimes) that are like those displayed by information, biological, and technological networks. More importantly, we demonstrate a previously unreported difference between the distribution of incoming and outgoing links of directed networks. Specifically, the incoming link distributions have sharp cutoffs that are substantially lower than those of the outgoing link distributions (sometimes the outgoing cutoffs are not even present). This asymmetry can be explained by considering the dynamical interactions that take place in distributed problem solving and may be related to differences between each actor's capacity to process information provided by others and the actor's capacity to transmit information over the network. We conjecture that the asymmetric link distribution is likely to hold for other human or nonhuman directed networks when nodes represent information processing and using elements.