Using GIS in risk analysis: a case study of hazardous waste transport.

This paper provides an illustration of how a geographic information system (GIS) can be used in risk analysis. It focuses on liquid hazardous waste transport and utilizes records archived by the London Waste Regulatory Authority. This data source provides information on the origin and destination of each waste stream, but not the route followed during transport. A GIS was therefore employed to predict the paths used, taking into account different routing criteria and characteristics of the available road network. Details were also assembled on population distribution and ground-water vulnerability, thus providing a basis for evaluating the potential consequences of a waste spillage during transport. Four routing scenarios were implemented to identify sections of road which consistently saw heavy traffic. These simulations also highlighted that some interventions could lead to risk tradeoffs rather than hazard mitigation. Many parts of the research would not have been possible without a GIS, and the study demonstrates the considerable potential of such software in environmental risk assessment and management.

Comparison of ward population estimates from FHSA patient registers with the 1991 Census.

"Postcode addresses from National Health Service patient registers for Norfolk and Suffolk [counties in England] current on census day 1991 were assigned to census wards, and estimates of populations in wards were produced for the total population and for twelve age-sex groups. These were compared with adjusted counts of usual residents from the 1991 Census." The results indicate that family health service authority registers "are an acceptable alternative to the census for population estimation purposes. This supports recent arguments for wider use of population registers and suggests that they may be particularly valuable as a source of intercensal information."

Evaluation of methods for calculating census health indicators for GP practices.

The patients registered with a general practice are usually spread over many census areas and overlap with the distribution of neighbouring practices, so a validated method of aggregating census data to describe the characteristics of practice patients is required. Four methods were used to provide estimates of the percentage of patients aged 75 years and over from census data for 81 practices in Suffolk, England, and these were compared with values derived from the FHSA patient register. Census values for practice areas produced better estimates than those based on the location of the surgery, but the best methods were based on patient-weighted averages of ward and enumeration district data. The finer geographical detail of enumeration districts did not produce substantially more accurate estimates than the ward-level data: both gave estimates with limits of agreement within 2% of the patient register values. Errors in the census, errors in patient registers and selective geographical distributions of practice patients prevent close matching of census and register measures, but two of the methods tested produced estimates that allow broad comparisons between practices.