ABSTRACT
Hydrogen will become a key player in transitioning toward a net-zero energy system. However, a clear pathway toward a unified European hydrogen infrastructure to support the rapid scale-up of hydrogen production is still under discussion. This study explores plausible pathways using a fully sector-coupled energy system model. Here, we assess the emergence of hydrogen infrastructure build-outs connecting neighboring European nations through hydrogen import and domestic production centers with Western and Central European demands via four distinct hydrogen corridors. We identify a potential lock-in effect of blue hydrogen in the medium term, highlighting the risk of long-term dependence on methane. In contrast, we show that a self-sufficient Europe relying on domestic green hydrogen by 2050 would increase yearly expenses by around 3% and require 518 gigawatts of electrolysis capacity. This study emphasizes the importance of rapidly scaling up electrolysis capacity, building hydrogen networks and storage facilities, deploying renewable electricity generation, and ensuring coherent coordination across European nations.
ABSTRACT
The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economic aspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising from socioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energy efficiency measures.
ABSTRACT
The shipping industry is a hard-to-abate sector in today's society. Although past studies have looked at levels of carbon pricing, fuel savings, and the upscaling of green fuel availability separately, we combine these critical parameters for a green transition of the shipping industry to show what it takes to reach sectoral emissions reduction targets in line with the Paris Agreement. We utilize a least-cost optimization model drawing on data on, e.g., emissions with lifecycle elements and the costs of green fuel production. We find that reaching maritime reduction targets for a green transition requires high growth rates for green fuel availability, carbon pricing beyond 300EUR/tCO2eq, and at least 50% in fuel demand savings compared to today's demand projection for 2050. The results show the importance of immediate climate action if maritime emissions reduction goals are to be achieved.
