An observational cohort study of histological screening for BK polyomavirus nephropathy following viral replication in plasma.

Systematic screening for BKPyV-DNAemia has been advocated to aid prevention and treatment of polyomavirus associated nephropathy (PyVAN), an important cause of kidney graft failure. The added value of performing a biopsy at time of BKPyV-DNAemia, to distinguish presumptive PyVAN (negative SV40 immunohistochemistry) and proven PyVAN (positive SV40) has not been established. Therefore, we studied an unselected cohort of 950 transplantations, performed between 2008-2017. BKPyV-DNAemia was detected in 250 (26.3%) transplant recipients, and positive SV40 in 91 cases (9.6%). Among 209 patients with a concurrent biopsy at time of first BKPyV-DNAemia, 60 (28.7%) biopsies were SV40 positive. Plasma viral load showed high diagnostic value for concurrent SV40 positivity (ROC-AUC 0.950, 95% confidence interval 0.916-0.978) and the semiquantitatively scored percentage of tubules with evidence of polyomavirus replication (pvl score) (0.979, 0.968-0.988). SV40 positivity was highly unlikely when plasma viral load is below 4 log10 copies/ml (negative predictive value 0.989, 0.979-0.994). In SV40 positive patients, higher plasma BKPyV-DNA load and higher pvl scores were associated with slower viral clearance from the blood (hazard ratio 0.712, 95% confidence interval 0.604-0.839, and 0.327, 0.161-0.668, respectively), whereas the dichotomy positivity/negativity of SV40 immunohistochemistry did not predict viral clearance. Although the pvl score offers some prognostic value for viral clearance on top of plasma viral load, the latter provided good guidance for when a biopsy was unnecessary to exclude PyVAN. Thus, the distinction between presumptive and proven PyVAN, based on SV40 immunohistochemistry, has limited clinical value. Hence, management of BKPyV-DNAemia and immunosuppression reduction should be weighed against the risk of occurrence of rejection, or exacerbation of rejection observed concomitantly.

Can We Predict Graft Intolerance Syndrome After Kidney Transplant Failure? External Validation of a Previously Developed Model.

Previously we established a prediction model for graft intolerance syndrome requiring graft nephrectomy in patients with late kidney graft failure. The aim of this study is to determine generalizability of this model in an independent cohort. The validation cohort included patients with late kidney graft failure between 2008 and 2018. Primary outcome is the prognostic performance of our model, expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), in the validation cohort. In 63 of 580 patients (10.9%) a graft nephrectomy was performed because of graft intolerance. The original model, which included donor age, graft survival and number of acute rejections, performed poorly in the validation cohort (ROC-AUC 0.61). After retraining of the model using recipient age at graft failure instead of donor age, the model had an average ROC-AUC of 0.70 in the original cohort and of 0.69 in the validation cohort. Our original model did not accurately predict the graft intolerance syndrome in a validation cohort. However, a retrained model including recipient age at graft failure instead of donor age performed moderately well in both the development and validation cohort enabling identification of patients with the highest and lowest risk of graft intolerance syndrome.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Development and Validation of Prediction Models of Adverse Kidney Outcomes in the Population With and Without Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To predict adverse kidney outcomes for use in optimizing medical management and clinical trial design. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In this meta-analysis of individual participant data, 43 cohorts (N = 1,621,817) from research studies, electronic medical records, and clinical trials with global representation were separated into development and validation cohorts. Models were developed and validated within strata of diabetes mellitus (presence or absence) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; ≥60 or <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) to predict a composite of ≥40% decline in eGFR or kidney failure (i.e., receipt of kidney replacement therapy) over 2-3 years. RESULTS: There were 17,399 and 24,591 events in development and validation cohorts, respectively. Models predicting ≥40% eGFR decline or kidney failure incorporated age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, history of heart failure, coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, smoking status, and BMI, and, in those with diabetes, hemoglobin A1c, insulin use, and oral diabetes medication use. The median C-statistic was 0.774 (interquartile range [IQR] = 0.753, 0.782) in the diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.769 (IQR = 0.758, 0.808) in the diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.740 (IQR = 0.717, 0.763) in the no diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; and 0.750 (IQR = 0.731, 0.785) in the no diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts. Incorporating the previous 2-year eGFR slope minimally improved model performance, and then only in the higher-eGFR cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Novel prediction equations for a decline of ≥40% in eGFR can be applied successfully for use in the general population in persons with and without diabetes with higher or lower eGFR.

ABO-incompatible kidney transplantation in perspective of deceased donor transplantation and induction strategies: a propensity-matched analysis.

Kidney transplant candidates are blood group incompatible with roughly one out of three potential living donors. We compared outcomes after ABO-incompatible (ABOi) kidney transplantation with matched ABO-compatible (ABOc) living and deceased donor transplantation and analyzed different induction regimens. We performed a retrospective study with propensity matching and compared patient and death-censored graft survival after ABOi versus ABOc living donor and deceased donor kidney transplantation in a nationwide registry from 2006 till 2019. 296 ABOi were compared with 1184 center and propensity-matched ABOc living donor and 1184 deceased donor recipients (matching: recipient age, sex, blood group, and PRA). Patient survival was better compared with deceased donor [hazard ratio (HR) for death of HR 0.69 (0.49-0.96)] and non-significantly different from ABOc living donor recipients [HR 1.28 (0.90-1.81)]. Rate of graft failure was higher compared with ABOc living donor transplantation [HR 2.63 (1.72-4.01)]. Rejection occurred in 47% of 140 rituximab versus 22% of 50 rituximab/basiliximab, and 4% of 92 alemtuzumab-treated recipients (P < 0.001). ABOi kidney transplantation is superior to deceased donor transplantation. Rejection rate and graft failure are higher compared with matched ABOc living donor transplantation, underscoring the need for further studies into risk stratification and induction therapy [NTR7587, www.trialregister.nl].

Anti-PLA2R1 Antibodies as Prognostic Biomarker in Membranous Nephropathy.

INTRODUCTION: Personalized treatment for patients with membranous nephropathy requires accurate prediction of the disease course at an early stage. In this study, we evaluated the value of baseline anti-phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R1) antibody titer as a prognostic biomarker in patients with PLA2R1-associated membranous nephropathy. METHODS: In this cohort study, we included 168 patients (118 men, 50 women) referred to our nephrology center between February 1995 and November 2016. Mean age was 52 ± 13 years. There were 156 patients with new-onset disease and 12 patients with a relapse (n = 10) or recent use of immunosuppressive therapy (n = 2). We measured anti-PLA2R1 titer at baseline and analyzed progression to severe disease (30% increase of serum creatinine or start of immunosuppressive therapy) as a primary study endpoint over 60 months. RESULTS: There was a clear association between anti-PLA2R1 antibody titer and severity of the nephrotic syndrome. In univariate analysis, anti-PLA2R1 antibody titer was also associated with disease progression. However, in Cox proportional hazard models that included proteinuria and serum creatinine, anti-PLA2R1 antibody titer was no longer associated with clinical outcome. Results were similar when limiting the analysis to the patients with new-onset disease. CONCLUSION: Our study questions the relevance of single measurement of anti-PLA2R1 antibodies at baseline as a prognostic biomarker in membranous nephropathy. Future studies are needed to determine the possible role of sequential measurements of anti-PLA2R1 antibodies as a prognostic biomarker of disease progression.

Low plasma magnesium concentration and future abdominal aortic calcifications in moderate chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Higher plasma magnesium concentrations are associated with reduced cardiovascular disease risk in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. The importance of plasma magnesium concentration for vascular calcification in earlier stages of CKD remains underexplored. This study investigated whether plasma magnesium is a determinant for the presence and severity of vascular calcification in moderate CKD. METHODS: Retrospective analysis was performed using abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) scores in 280 patients with stage 3 and 4 CKD enrolled in the MASTERPLAN trial. Lateral abdominal X-ray was used to evaluate AAC. Plasma magnesium concentration were measured over time. A zero-inflated Poisson model determined the association between plasma magnesium concentration and AAC. RESULTS: 79 out of 280 patients did not have AAC, and in patients with AAC the median calcification score was 3.5 (interquartile range: 0.0-8.6). The mean plasma magnesium concentration was 0.76 ± 0.10 mmol/L at baseline. A 0.1 mmol/L higher plasma magnesium concentration was associated with lower AAC of 0.07 point (95% CI -0.28 - 0.14). A 0.1 mmol/L higher plasma magnesium lowered the odds of detecting any AAC by 30% (OR = 0.63; 95% CI 0.29-1.37). After 1 year and 4 years (at time of X-ray) of follow-up this association was attenuated (OR = 0.93; 95% CI 0.61-1.43 and 0.93; 95% CI 0.60-1.45, respectively). None of these associations reached statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma magnesium concentration at baseline is not associated with the risk for future AAC. Interventions increasing magnesium to avoid vascular calcification may have greatest potential in early CKD stages prior to onset of vascular calcification.

Prognostic models for chronic kidney disease: a systematic review and external validation.

BACKGROUND: Accurate risk prediction is needed in order to provide personalized healthcare for chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. An overload of prognosis studies is being published, ranging from individual biomarker studies to full prediction studies. We aim to systematically appraise published prognosis studies investigating multiple biomarkers and their role in risk predictions. Our primary objective was to investigate if the prognostic models that are reported in the literature were of sufficient quality and to externally validate them. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review and appraised the quality of studies reporting multivariable prognosis models for end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality in CKD patients. We subsequently externally validated these models in a randomized trial that included patients from a broad CKD population. RESULTS: We identified 91 papers describing 36 multivariable models for prognosis of ESRD, 50 for CV events, 46 for mortality and 17 for a composite outcome. Most studies were deemed of moderate quality. Moreover, they often adopted different definitions for the primary outcome and rarely reported full model equations (21% of the included studies). External validation was performed in the Multifactorial Approach and Superior Treatment Efficacy in Renal Patients with the Aid of Nurse Practitioners trial (n = 788, with 160 events for ESRD, 79 for CV and 102 for mortality). The 24 models that reported full model equations showed a great variability in their performance, although calibration remained fairly adequate for most models, except when predicting mortality (calibration slope >1.5). CONCLUSIONS: This review shows that there is an abundance of multivariable prognosis models for the CKD population. Most studies were considered of moderate quality, and they were reported and analysed in such a manner that their results cannot directly be used in follow-up research or in clinical practice.

Worldwide Disparity in the Relation Between CKD Prevalence and Kidney Failure Risk.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) for kidney failure varies internationally much more than chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence. This ecologic study investigated the relation of CKD prevalence to KRT and mortality risks by world region. METHODS: We used data from Global Burden of Disease and KRT registries worldwide with linear models to estimate the percentages of variance in KRT incidence and all-cause mortality explained by age-adjusted prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5, overall and by gender, in 61 countries classified in 3 regions: high income (n = 28), Eastern and Central Europe (n = 15), and other (n = 18). RESULTS: The incidence of KRT ranged from 89 to 378 per million population in high-income regions, 32 to 222 per million population in Central and Eastern Europe, and 22 to 493 per million population in the other region; age-adjusted CKD prevalence ranged from 5.5% to 10.4%, 7.6% to 13.7%, and 7.4% to 13.1%, respectively. The relation between these indicators was positive in high-income countries, negative in Central and Eastern Europe, and null in the other region. Age-adjusted CKD prevalence explained 40% of the variance in KRT incidence (P < 0.001) in high-income countries. The explained variance of age-adjusted mortality was close to 0 in high-income countries and positive at 19% (P = 0.10) in Central and Eastern Europe and at 11% (P = 0.17) in the other region. Results were consistent by gender. CONCLUSION: This study raises awareness on the significant part of the gaps in KRT incidence across countries not explained by the number of individuals with CKD, even in high-income countries where access to KRT is not limited.

Performance of creatinine-based equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate changes over time.

BACKGROUND: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is commonly used to monitor chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, but its validity for evaluating kidney function changes over time has not been comprehensively evaluated. We assessed the performance of creatinine-based equations for estimating GFR slope according to patient characteristics and specific CKD diagnosis. METHODS: In the NephroTest cohort study, we measured GFR 5324 times by chromium 51-labeled ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid renal clearance in 1955 adult patients with CKD Stages 1-4 referred to nephrologists (Stages 1-2, 19%) and simultaneously estimated GFR with both the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equations for isotope dilution mass spectrometry traceable creatinine; absolute and relative GFR slopes were calculated using a linear mixed model. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 3.4 [interquartile range (IQR) 2.0-5.6] years, the decline in mean absolute and relative measured GFR (mGFR) and CKD-EPI and MDRD estimated GFR (eGFR) was 1.6 ± 1.2, 1.5 ± 1.4 and 1.3 ± 1.3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year and 5.9 ± 5.3, 5.3 ± 5.3 and 4.8 ± 5.2%/year, respectively; 52% and 55% of the patients had MDRD and CKD-EPI eGFR slopes within 30% of mGFR slopes. Both equations tended to overestimate the GFR slope in the youngest patients and underestimate it in the oldest, thus producing inverse associations between age and mGFR versus eGFR slope. Other patient characteristics and specific CKD diagnoses had little effect on the performance of the equations in estimating associations. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows little bias, but poor precision in GFR slope estimation for both MDRD and CKD-EPI equations. Importantly, bias strongly varied with age, possibly due to variations in muscle mass over time, with implications for clinical care and research.

CKD: A Call for an Age-Adapted Definition.

Current criteria for the diagnosis of CKD in adults include persistent signs of kidney damage, such as increased urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio or a GFR below the threshold of 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 This threshold has important caveats because it does not separate kidney disease from kidney aging, and therefore does not hold for all ages. In an extensive review of the literature, we found that GFR declines with healthy aging without any overt signs of compensation (such as elevated single-nephron GFR) or kidney damage. Older living kidney donors, who are carefully selected based on good health, have a lower predonation GFR compared with younger donors. Furthermore, the results from the large meta-analyses conducted by the CKD Prognosis Consortium and from numerous other studies indicate that the GFR threshold above which the risk of mortality is increased is not consistent across all ages. Among younger persons, mortality is increased at GFR <75 ml/min per 1.73 m2, whereas in elderly people it is increased at levels <45 ml/min per 1.73 m2 Therefore, we suggest that amending the CKD definition to include age-specific thresholds for GFR. The implications of an updated definition are far reaching. Having fewer healthy elderly individuals diagnosed with CKD could help reduce inappropriate care and its associated adverse effects. Global prevalence estimates for CKD would be substantially reduced. Also, using an age-specific threshold for younger persons might lead to earlier identification of CKD onset for such individuals, at a point when progressive kidney damage may still be preventable.

Predicting kidney failure from longitudinal kidney function trajectory: A comparison of models.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Early prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) currently use Cox models including baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) only. Alternative approaches include a Cox model that includes eGFR slope determined over a baseline period of time, a Cox model with time varying GFR, or a joint modeling approach. We studied if these more complex approaches may further improve ESKD prediction. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We re-used data from two CKD cohorts including patients with baseline eGFR >30ml/min per 1.73m2. MASTERPLAN (N = 505; 55 ESKD events) was used as development dataset, and NephroTest (N = 1385; 72 events) for validation. PREDICTORS: All models included age, sex, eGFR, and albuminuria, known prognostic markers for ESKD. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We trained the models on the MASTERPLAN data and determined discrimination and calibration for each model at 2 years follow-up for a prediction horizon of 2 years in the NephroTest cohort. We benchmarked the predictive performance against the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). RESULTS: The C-statistics for the KFRE was 0.94 (95%CI 0.86 to 1.01). Performance was similar for the Cox model with time-varying eGFR (0.92 [0.84 to 0.97]), eGFR (0.95 [0.90 to 1.00]), and the joint model 0.91 [0.87 to 0.96]). The Cox model with eGFR slope showed the best calibration. CONCLUSION: In the present studies, where the outcome was rare and follow-up data was highly complete, the joint models did not offer improvement in predictive performance over more traditional approaches such as a survival model with time-varying eGFR, or a model with eGFR slope.

Neuropeptide Y and chronic kidney disease progression: a cohort study.

Background: Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is a sympathetic neurotransmitter that has been implicated in various disorders including obesity, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular diseases. Methods: We investigated the relationship between circulating NPY and the progression of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria and the risk for a combined renal endpoint (>30% GFR loss, dialysis/transplantation) in two European chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohorts including follow-up of 753 and 576 patients for 36 and 57 months, respectively. Results: Average plasma NPY was 104 ± 32 pmol/L in the first CKD cohort and 119 ± 41 pmol/L in the second one. In separate analyses of the two cohorts, NPY associated with the progression of the estimated GFR (eGFR) and proteinuria over time in both unadjusted and adjusted {eGFR: -3.60 mL/min/1.73 m2 [95% confidence interval (CI): -4.46 to - 2.74] P < 0.001 and -0.83 mL/min/1.73 m2 (-1.41 to - 0.25, P = 0.005); proteinuria: 0.18 g/24 h (0.11-0.25) P < 0.001 and 0.07 g/24 h (0.005-0.14) P = 0.033} analyses by the mixed linear model. Accordingly, in a combined analysis of the two cohorts accounting for the competitive risk of death (Fine and Gray model), NPY predicted (P = 0.005) the renal endpoint [sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR): 1.09; 95% CI: 1.03-1.16; P = 0.005] and the SHR in the first cohort (1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.25) did not differ (P = 0.25) from that in the second cohort (1.06, 95% CI: 0.98-1.15). Conclusions: NPY associates with proteinuria and faster CKD progression as well as with a higher risk of kidney failure. These findings suggest that the sympathetic system and/or properties intrinsic to the NPY molecule may play a role in CKD progression.

Graft intolerance syndrome requiring graft nephrectomy after late kidney graft failure: can it be predicted? A retrospective cohort study.

Graft nephrectomy is recommended in case of early graft failure. When the graft fails more than 3-6 months after transplantation, it is current practice to follow a wait-and-see policy. A common indication for graft removal is the graft intolerance syndrome. We aimed to create a risk prediction model for the occurrence of graft intolerance resulting in graft nephrectomy. We collected data of kidney transplantations performed in our center between 1980 and 2010 that failed at least 6 months after transplantation. We evaluated the association between baseline characteristics and the occurrence of graft nephrectomy because of graft intolerance using a competing risk regression model. Prognostic factors were included in a multivariate prediction model. In- and exclusion criteria were met in 288 cases. In 48 patients, the graft was removed because of graft intolerance. Donor age, the number of rejections, and shorter graft survival were predictive factors for graft nephrectomy because of the graft intolerance syndrome. These factors were included in a prediction rule. Using donor age, graft survival, and the number of rejections, clinicians can predict the need for graft nephrectomy with a reasonable accuracy.

Causality on longitudinal data: Stable specification search in constrained structural equation modeling.

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for longitudinal data, that is robust for finite samples based on recent advances in stability selection using subsampling and selection algorithms. Our approach uses exploratory search but allows incorporation of prior knowledge, e.g., the absence of a particular causal relationship between two specific variables. We represent causal relationships using structural equation models. Models are scored along two objectives: the model fit and the model complexity. Since both objectives are often conflicting, we apply a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to search for Pareto optimal models. To handle the instability of small finite data samples, we repeatedly subsample the data and select those substructures (from the optimal models) that are both stable and parsimonious. These substructures can be visualized through a causal graph. Our more exploratory approach achieves at least comparable performance as, but often a significant improvement over state-of-the-art alternative approaches on a simulated data set with a known ground truth. We also present the results of our method on three real-world longitudinal data sets on chronic fatigue syndrome, Alzheimer disease, and chronic kidney disease. The findings obtained with our approach are generally in line with results from more hypothesis-driven analyses in earlier studies and suggest some novel relationships that deserve further research.

Predictors and prognostic impact of silent coronary artery disease in asymptomatic high-risk patients with diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: Evaluation of predictors of silent coronary artery disease (SCAD) in high-risk asymptomatic diabetic patients and to evaluate their two-year outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: Four hundred diabetic patients without prior CAD but at high CAD risk underwent myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) in this prospective multicentre outcome trial. MPS were abnormal in 22% of patients. Male sex (OR 2.223, 1.152-4.290; p=0.017), diabetes duration (OR 1.049,1.015-1.085; p=0·005), peripheral artery disease (OR 2.134, 1·150-3.961; p=0.016), smoking (OR 2.064, 1.109-3.839; p=0·022), systolic blood pressure (OR 1.014, 1.00-1.03, p=0·056), brain natriuretic peptide (OR 1.002, 1.001-1.004, p=0·005) independently predicted an abnormal MPS: if <2 and >3 predictors were present, 3.2% and 47% patients had an abnormal MPS, respectively (p<0·001). Two-year major adverse cardiac event rates increased from 2·9% to 14·6%, cardiac death rates from 0·6% to 4·1% in patients with summed stress scores ≤10 and >10%, respectively (each p<0.045). CONCLUSIONS: Male sex, diabetes duration, peripheral artery disease, smoking, elevated systolic blood pressure and increased brain-natriuretic peptides independently predicted SCAD. In presence of >3 predictors, almost 50% of patients had an abnormal MPS. They may benefit from screening by MPS since the extent of the MPS abnormality discriminated clearly between a favourable compared to a bad 2-year outcome. However, even highest risk patients without objective evidence of CAD had a benign prognosis without need for specific evaluation or therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN87953632.

Safety of Rituximab Compared with Steroids and Cyclophosphamide for Idiopathic Membranous Nephropathy.

Guidelines recommend steroid plus cyclical cyclophosphamide (St-Cp) therapy for patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy at high risk of progression to ESRD. Rituximab (Rtx) may be a safer alternative. In this retrospective, observational cohort study, we compared time to any adverse event (primary outcome); serious or nonserious events; partial and complete remission of the nephrotic syndrome; and a composite of doubling of serum creatinine, ESRD, or death between 100 Rtx-treated patients and 103 patients who received daily St-Cp We monitored patients with standardized protocols and adjusted for baseline characteristics by Cox regression. Over a median follow-up of 40 months, the Rtx group had significantly fewer adverse events than the St-Cp group (63 versus 173; P<0.001), both serious (11 versus 46; P<0.001) and nonserious (52 versus 127; P<0.001). Cumulative incidence of any first (35.5% versus 69.0%; P<0.001), serious (16.4% versus 30.2%; P=0.002), or nonserious (23.6% versus 60.8%; P<0.001) event was significantly lower with Rtx Adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) between Rtx and St-Cp groups were 0.27 (0.16 to 0.44) for any first adverse event, 0.32 (0.15 to 0.68) for serious adverse events, and 0.23 (0.13 to 0.41) for nonserious adverse events. Although the cumulative incidence of partial remission was lower in the Rtx group, rates of complete remission and the composite renal end point did not differ significantly between groups. Because of its superior safety profile, we suggest that Rtx might replace St-Cp as first-line immunosuppressive therapy in patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy and nephrotic syndrome.

Cost-effectiveness of eculizumab treatment after kidney transplantation in patients with atypical haemolytic uraemic syndrome.

Background: Kidney transplantation in patients with atypical haemolytic uraemic syndrome (aHUS) is frequently complicated by recurrence of aHUS, often resulting in graft loss. Eculizumab prophylaxis prevents recurrence, improving graft survival. An alternative treatment strategy has been proposed where eculizumab is administered upon recurrence. We combined available evidence and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of these competing strategies. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision analytical approach with Markov chain analyses was used to compare alternatives for aHUS patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD): (i) dialysis treatment, (ii) kidney transplantation, (iii) kidney transplantation with eculizumab therapy upon recurrence of aHUS, (iv) kidney transplantation with eculizumab induction consisting of 12 months of prophylaxis and (v) kidney transplantation with lifelong eculizumab prophylaxis. We assumed that all patients received a graft from a living donor and that recurrence probability was 28.4% within the first year of transplantation. Results: At 8.34 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and a cost of €402 412, kidney transplantation without eculizumab was the least costly alternative. By comparison, dialysis was more costly and resulted in fewer QALYs gained. Eculizumab upon recurrence resulted in 9.55 QALYs gained at a cost of €425 097. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was €18 748 per QALY. Both eculizumab induction and lifelong eculizumab were inferior to eculizumab upon recurrence, as both resulted in fewer QALYs gained and higher costs. Conclusions: Kidney transplantation is more cost effective than dialysis to treat ESRD due to aHUS. Adding eculizumab treatment results in a substantial gain in QALYs. When compared with eculizumab upon recurrence, neither eculizumab induction nor lifelong eculizumab prophylaxis resulted in more QALYs, but did yield far higher costs. Therefore, eculizumab upon recurrence of aHUS is more acceptable.