Integrated prediction and decision models are valuable in informing personalized decision making.

OBJECTIVES: To show how prediction models can be incorporated into decision models, to allow for personalized decisions, and to assess the value of this approach using the management of the neck in early-stage oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma as an example. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: In a decision model, three approaches were compared: a "population-based" approach in which patients undergo the strategy that is optimal for the population; a "perfectly predicted" approach, in which each patient receives the optimal strategy for that specific patient; and a "prediction model" approach in which each patient receives the strategy that is optimal based on prediction models. The average differences in costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the population between these approaches were studied. RESULTS: The population-based approach resulted on average in 4.9158 QALYs with €8,675 in costs, per patient. The perfectly predicted approach yielded 0.21 more QALYs and saved €1,024 per patient. The prediction model approach yielded 0.0014 more QALYs and saved €152 per patient compared with the population-based approach. CONCLUSION: The perfectly predicted approach shows that personalized care is worthwhile. However, current prediction models in the field of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma have limited value. Incorporating prediction models into decision models appears to be a valuable method to assess the value of personalized decision making.

Surgical specimen handover from the operating theatre to laboratory-Can we improve patient safety by learning from aviation and other high-risk organisations?

Essential communication between healthcare staff is considered one of the key requirements for both safety and quality care when patients are handed over from one clinical area to other. This is particularly important in environments such as the operating theatre and intensive care where mistakes can be devastating. Health care has learned from other high-risk organisations (HRO) such as aviation where the use of checklists and human factors awareness has virtually eliminated human error and mistakes. To our knowledge, little has been published around ways to improve pathology specimen handover following surgery, with pathology request forms often conveying the bare minimum of information to assist the laboratory staff. Furthermore, the request form might not warn staff about potential hazards. In this article, we provide a brief summary of the factors involved in human error and introduce a novel checklist that can be readily completed at the same time as the routine pathology request form. This additional measure enhances safety, can help to reduce processing and mislabelling errors and provides essential information in a structured way assisting both laboratory staff and pathologists when handling head and neck surgical specimens.

Trends in oral cavity cancer incidence, mortality, survival and treatment in the Netherlands.

Information on epidemiology is essential to evaluate care for the growing group of oral cancer patients. We investigated trends in incidence, mortality and relative survival rates for oral cavity cancer (OCC) and its subsites in the Netherlands from 1991 to 2010, and relate these to changes in stage and treatment. Patient (age, sex), tumour (subsite, stage) and treatment characteristics of patients diagnosed with OCC (ICD-O-3: C02-C06) in 1991-2010 were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Incidence, mortality and 5-year relative survival rates over time are presented, as well as trends in type of treatment. The incidence of OCC increased with +1.2% (95%CI: +0.9%;+1.6%) per year: more strongly in women, stage I and IV disease, and in cancers of the tongue and gum. The mortality rate slightly rose (+0.8%, 95%CI: +0.3%;+1.3% per year), but differed by subsite. The 5-year relative survival improved from 57% in 1991-1995 to 62% in 2006-2010. The 5-year relative survival was better for women compared with men (64% and 55%, respectively), decreased with increasing stage, was the best for tongue cancer (63%) and the worst for cancer of the gum (56%) and floor of mouth cancer (55%). The relative excess risk of dying was higher for non-surgery-based treatments. Surgery was the main treatment option and the proportion of "surgery only" rose in stage I and III disease. The incidence and, to a lesser extent, mortality of OCC are increasing and therefore, even with slightly improving survival rates, OCC is an increasingly important health problem.