Observational Study of Glycemic Impact of Anticipatory and Early-Race Athletic Competition Stress in Type 1 Diabetes.

Athletic competitions and the associated psychological stress are a challenge for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). This study aims to understand the influence of anticipatory and early race competition stress on blood glucose concentrations and to identify personality, demographic, or behavioral traits indicative in the scope of the impact. Ten recreational athletes with T1D competed in an athletic competition and an exercise-intensity matched non-competition "training" session for comparison. The two hours prior to exercise and the first 30 minutes of exercise were compared between the paired exercise sessions to assess the influence of anticipatory and early race stress. The effectiveness index, average CGM glucose, and the ingested carbohydrate to injected insulin ratio were compared between the paired sessions through regression. In 9 of 12 races studied, an elevated CGM for the race over the individual training session was observed. The rate of change of the CGM during the first 30 minutes of exercise notably differed between the race and training (p = 0.02) with a less rapid decline in CGM occurring during the race for 11 of 12 paired sessions and an increasing CGM trend during the race for 7 of the 12 sessions with the rate of change (mean ± standard deviation) as 1.36 ± 6.07 and -2.59 ± 2.68 mg/dL per 5 minutes for the race and training, respectively. Individuals with longer durations of diabetes often decreased their carbohydrate-to-insulin ratio on race day, taking more insulin, than on the training day while the reverse was noted for those newly diagnosed (r = -0.52, p = 0.05). The presence of athletic competition stress can impact glycemia. With an increasing duration of diabetes, the athletes may be expecting elevated competition glucose concentrations and take preventive measures.

Incorporating Prior Information in Adaptive Model Predictive Control for Multivariable Artificial Pancreas Systems.

BACKGROUND: Adaptive model predictive control (MPC) algorithms that recursively update the glucose prediction model are shown to be promising in the development of fully automated multivariable artificial pancreas systems. However, the recursively updated glycemic prediction models do not explicitly consider prior knowledge in the identification of the model parameters. Prior information of the glycemic effects of meals and physical activity can improve model accuracy and yield better glycemic control algorithms. METHODS: A glucose prediction model based on regularized partial least squares (rPLS) method where the prior information is encoded as the regularization term is developed to provide accurate predictions of the future glucose concentrations. An adaptive MPC is developed that incorporates dynamic trajectories for the glucose setpoint and insulin dosing constraints based on the estimated plasma insulin concentration (PIC). The proposed adaptive MPC algorithm is robust to disturbances caused by unannounced meals and physical activities even in cases with missing glucose measurements. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptive MPC based on rPLS is investigated with in silico subjects of the multivariable glucose-insulin-physiological variables simulator (mGIPsim). RESULTS: The efficacy of the proposed adaptive MPC strategy in regulating the blood glucose concentration (BGC) of people with T1DM is assessed using the average percent time in range (TIR) for glucose, defined as 70 to 180 mg/dL inclusive, and the average percent time in hypoglycemia (<70 and >54 mg/dL) and level 2 hypoglycemia (≤54 mg/dL). The TIR for a cohort of 20 virtual subjects of mGIPsim is 81.9% ± 7.4% (with no hypoglycemia or severe hypoglycemia) for the proposed MPC compared with 73.9% ± 7.6% (0.2% ± 0.1% in hypoglycemia and 0.1% ± 0.1% in level 2 hypoglycemia) for an MPC based on a recursive autoregressive exogenous (ARX) model. CONCLUSIONS: The adaptive MPC algorithm that incorporates prior knowledge in the recursive updating of the glucose prediction model can contribute to the development of fully automated artificial pancreas systems that can mitigate meal and physical activity disturbances.

Prior Informed Regularization of Recursively Updated Latent-Variables-Based Models with Missing Observations.

Many data-driven modeling techniques identify locally valid, linear representations of time-varying or nonlinear systems, and thus the model parameters must be adaptively updated as the operating conditions of the system vary, though the model identification typically does not consider prior knowledge. In this work, we propose a new regularized partial least squares (rPLS) algorithm that incorporates prior knowledge in the model identification and can handle missing data in the independent covariates. This latent variable (LV) based modeling technique consists of three steps. First, a LV-based model is developed on the historical time series data. In the second step, the missing observations in the new incomplete data sample are estimated. Finally, the future values of the outputs are predicted as a linear combination of estimated scores and loadings. The model is recursively updated as new data are obtained from the system. The performance of the proposed rPLS and rPLS with exogenous inputs (rPLSX) algorithms are evaluated by modeling variations in glucose concentration (GC) of people with Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in response to meals and physical activities for prediction windows up to one hour, or 12 sampling instances, into the future. The proposed rPLS family of GC prediction models are evaluated with both in-silico and clinical experiment data and compared with the performance of recursive time series and kernel-based models. The root mean squared error (RMSE) with simulated subjects in the multivariable T1D simulator where physical activity effects are incorporated in GC variations are 2.52 and 5.81 mg/dL for 30 and 60 mins ahead predictions (respectively) when information for all meals and physical activities are used, increasing to 2.70 and 6.54 mg/dL (respectively) when meals and activities occurred, but the information is with-held from the modeling algorithms. The RMSE is 10.45 and 14.48 mg/dL for clinical study with prediction horizons of 30 and 60 mins, respectively. The low RMSE values demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed rPLS approach compared to the conventional recursive modeling algorithms.

Sleep quality and glycaemic variability in a real-life setting in adults with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Suboptimal subjective sleep quality is very common in adults with type 1 diabetes. Reducing glycaemic variability is a key objective in this population. To date, no prior studies have examined the associations between objectively measured sleep quality and overnight glycaemic variability in adults with type 1 diabetes. We aimed to test the hypothesis that poor sleep quality would be associated with greater overnight glycaemic variability. METHODS: Data were collected in the home setting from 20 adults (ten male and ten female participants) with type 1 diabetes who were current insulin pump users. Simultaneous assessments of objective sleep quality (Zmachine Insight+) and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) were performed over multiple nights (up to 15 nights) in each participant. Due to the real-life nature of this study, the participants kept their usual CGM alerts for out-of-range glucose values. Sleep quality was categorised as 'good' or 'poor' using a composite of objective sleep features (i.e. sleep efficiency, wake after sleep onset and number of awakenings) based on the National Sleep Foundation's consensus criteria. Glycaemic variability was quantified using SD and CV of overnight glucose values based on overnight CGM profiles. RESULTS: A total of 170 nights were analysed. Overall, 86 (51%) nights were categorised as good sleep quality, and 84 (49%) nights were categorised as poor sleep quality. Using linear mixed-effects models, poor sleep quality was significantly associated with greater glycaemic variability as quantified by SD (coefficient: 0.39 [95% CI 0.10, 0.67], p = 0.009) and CV (coefficient: 4.35 [95% CI 0.8, 7.9], p = 0.02) of overnight glucose values, after accounting for age, sex, BMI and overnight insulin dose. There was large inter- and intra-individual variability in sleep and glycaemic characteristics. Both pooled and individual-level data revealed that the nights with poor sleep quality had larger SDs and CVs, and, conversely, the nights with good sleep quality had smaller SDs and CVs. No associations were found between sleep quality and time spent in the target glucose range, or above or below the target glucose range, where CGM alarms are most likely to occur. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Objectively measured sleep quality is associated with overnight glycaemic variability in adults with type 1 diabetes. These findings highlight an important role of sleep quality in overnight glycaemic control in type 1 diabetes. They also provide a strong incentive to both patients and healthcare providers for considering sleep quality in personalised type 1 diabetes glycaemic management plans. Future studies should investigate the mechanisms linking sleep quality to glycaemic variability.

Discrimination of simultaneous psychological and physical stressors using wristband biosignals.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In this work, we address the problem of detecting and discriminating acute psychological stress (APS) in the presence of concurrent physical activity (PA) using wristband biosignals. We focused on signals available from wearable devices that can be worn in daily life because the ultimate objective of this work is to provide APS and PA information in real-time management of chronic conditions such as diabetes by automated personalized insulin delivery. Monitoring APS noninvasively throughout free-living conditions remains challenging because the responses to APS and PA of many physiological variables measured by wearable devices are similar. METHODS: Various classification algorithms are compared to simultaneously detect and discriminate the PA (sedentary state, treadmill running, and stationary bike) and the type of APS (non-stress state, mental stress, and emotional anxiety). The impact of APS inducements is verified with commonly used self-reported questionnaires (The State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI)). To aid the classification algorithms, novel features are generated from the physiological variables reported by a wristband device during 117 hours of experiments involving simultaneous APS inducement and PA. We also translate the APS assessment into a quantitative metric for use in predicting the adverse outcomes. RESULTS: An accurate classification of the concurrent PA and APS states is achieved with an overall classification accuracy of 99% for PA and 92% for APS. The average accuracy of APS detection during sedentary state, treadmill running, and stationary bike is 97.3, 94.1, and 84.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The simultaneous assessment of APS and PA throughout free-living conditions from a convenient wristband device is useful for monitoring the factors contributing to an elevated risk of acute events in people with chronic diseases like cardiovascular complications and diabetes.

Determining Physical Activity Characteristics from Wristband Data for Use in Automated Insulin Delivery Systems.

Algorithms that can determine the type of physical activity (PA) and quantify the intensity can allow precision medicine approaches, such as automated insulin delivery systems that modulate insulin administration in response to PA. In this work, data from a multi-sensor wristband is used to design classifiers to distinguish among five different physical states (PS) (resting, activities of daily living, running, biking, and resistance training), and to develop models to estimate the energy expenditure (EE) of the PA for diabetes therapy. The data collected are filtered, features are extracted from the reconciled signals, and the extracted features are used by machine learning algorithms, including deep-learning techniques, to obtain accurate PS classification and EE estimation. The various machine learning techniques have different success rates ranging from 75.7% to 94.8% in classifying the five different PS. The deep neural network model with long short-term memory has 94.8% classification accuracy. We achieved 0.5 MET (Metabolic Equivalent of Task) root-mean-square error for EE estimation accuracy, relative to indirect calorimetry with randomly selected testing data (10% of collected data). We also demonstrate a 5% improvement in PS classification accuracy and a 0.34 MET decrease in the mean absolute error when using multi-sensor approach relative to using only accelerometer data.

Controlling the AP Controller: Controller Performance Assessment and Modification.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent advances in closed-loop control of blood glucose concentration (BGC) in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D), online performance assessment and modification of artificial pancreas (AP) control systems remain a challenge as the metabolic characteristics of users change over time. METHODS: A controller performance assessment and modification system (CPAMS) analyzes the glucose concentration variations and controller behavior, and modifies the parameters of the control system used in the multivariable AP system. Various indices are defined to quantitatively evaluate the controller performance in real time. Controller performance assessment and modification system also incorporates online learning from historical data to anticipate impending disturbances and proactively counteract their effects. RESULTS: Using a multivariable simulation platform for T1D, the CPAMS is used to enhance the BGC regulation in people with T1D by means of automated insulin delivery with an adaptive learning predictive controller. Controller performance assessment and modification system increases the percentage of time in the target range (70-180) mg/dL by 52.3% without causing any hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia events. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the multivariable AP controller performance by using CPAMS.

Multi-Model Sensor Fault Detection and Data Reconciliation: A Case Study with Glucose Concentration Sensors for Diabetes.

Erroneous information from sensors affect process monitoring and control. An algorithm with multiple model identification methods will improve the sensitivity and accuracy of sensor fault detection and data reconciliation (SFD&DR). A novel SFD&DR algorithm with four types of models including outlier robust Kalman filter, locally weighted partial least squares, predictor-based subspace identification, and approximate linear dependency-based kernel recursive least squares is proposed. The residuals are further analyzed by artificial neural networks and a voting algorithm. The performance of the SFD&DR algorithm is illustrated by clinical data from artificial pancreas experiments with people with diabetes. The glucose-insulin metabolism has time-varying parameters and nonlinearities, providing a challenging system for fault detection and data reconciliation. Data from 17 clinical experiments collected over 896 hours were analyzed; the results indicate that the proposed SFD&DR algorithm is capable of detecting and diagnosing sensor faults and reconciling the erroneous sensor signals with better model-estimated values.

Simulation Software for Assessment of Nonlinear and Adaptive Multivariable Control Algorithms: Glucose - Insulin Dynamics in Type 1 Diabetes.

A simulator for testing automatic control algorithms for nonlinear systems with time-varying parameters, variable time delays, and uncertainties is developed. It is based on simulation of virtual patients with Type 1 diabetes (T1D). Nonlinear models are developed to describe glucose concentration (GC) variations based on user-defined scenarios for meal consumption, insulin administration, and physical activity. They compute GC values and physiological variables, such as heart rate, skin temperature, accelerometer, and energy expenditure, that are indicative of physical activities affecting GC dynamics. This is the first simulator designed for assessment of multivariable controllers that consider supplemental physiological variables in addition to GC measurements to improve glycemic control. Virtual patients are generated from distributions of identified model parameters using clinical data. The simulator will enable testing and evaluation of new control algorithms proposed for automated insulin delivery as well as various control algorithms for nonlinear systems with uncertainties, time-varying parameters and delays.

Multi-level Supervision and Modification of Artificial Pancreas Control System.

Artificial pancreas (AP) systems provide automated regulation of blood glucose concentration (BGC) for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). An AP includes three components: a continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor, a controller calculating insulin infusion rate based on the CGM signal, and a pump delivering the insulin amount calculated by the controller to the patient. The performance of the AP system depends on successful operation of these three components. Many APs use model predictive controllers that rely on models to predict BGC and to calculate the optimal insulin infusion rate. The performance of model-based controllers depends on the accuracy of the models that is affected by large dynamic changes in glucose-insulin metabolism or equipment performance that may move the operating conditions away from those used in developing the models and designing the control system. Sensor errors and missing signals will cause calculation of erroneous insulin infusion rates. And the performance of the controller may vary at each sampling step and each period (meal, exercise, and sleep), and from day to day. Here we describe a multi-level supervision and controller modification (ML-SCM) module is developed to supervise the performance of the AP system and retune the controller. It supervises AP performance in 3 time windows: sample level, period level, and day level. At sample level, an online controller performance assessment sub-module will generate controller performance indexes to evaluate various components of the AP system and conservatively modify the controller. A sensor error detection and signal reconciliation module will detect sensor error and reconcile the CGM sensor signal at each sample. At period level, the controller performance is evaluated with information collected during a certain time period and the controller is tuned more aggressively. At the day level, the daily CGM ranges are further analyzed to determine the adjustable range of controller parameters used for sample level and period level. Thirty subjects in the UVa/Padova metabolic simulator were used to evaluate the performance of the ML-SCM module and one clinical experiment is used to illustrate its performance in a clinical environment. The results indicate that the AP system with an ML-SCM module has a safer range of glucose concentration distribution and more appropriate insulin infusion rate suggestions than an AP system without the ML-SCM module.

Chemoresistance Evolution in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Delineated by Single-Cell Sequencing.

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive subtype that frequently develops resistance to chemotherapy. An unresolved question is whether resistance is caused by the selection of rare pre-existing clones or alternatively through the acquisition of new genomic aberrations. To investigate this question, we applied single-cell DNA and RNA sequencing in addition to bulk exome sequencing to profile longitudinal samples from 20 TNBC patients during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Deep-exome sequencing identified 10 patients in which NAC led to clonal extinction and 10 patients in which clones persisted after treatment. In 8 patients, we performed a more detailed study using single-cell DNA sequencing to analyze 900 cells and single-cell RNA sequencing to analyze 6,862 cells. Our data showed that resistant genotypes were pre-existing and adaptively selected by NAC, while transcriptional profiles were acquired by reprogramming in response to chemotherapy in TNBC patients.

Adaptive and Personalized Plasma Insulin Concentration Estimation for Artificial Pancreas Systems.

BACKGROUND: The artificial pancreas (AP) system, a technology that automatically administers exogenous insulin in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) to regulate their blood glucose concentrations, necessitates the estimation of the amount of active insulin already present in the body to avoid overdosing. METHOD: An adaptive and personalized plasma insulin concentration (PIC) estimator is designed in this work to accurately quantify the insulin present in the bloodstream. The proposed PIC estimation approach incorporates Hovorka's glucose-insulin model with the unscented Kalman filtering algorithm. Methods for the personalized initialization of the time-varying model parameters to individual patients for improved estimator convergence are developed. Data from 20 three-days-long closed-loop clinical experiments conducted involving subjects with T1DM are used to evaluate the proposed PIC estimation approach. RESULTS: The proposed methods are applied to the clinical data containing significant disturbances, such as unannounced meals and exercise, and the results demonstrate the accurate real-time estimation of the PIC with the root mean square error of 7.15 and 9.25 mU/L for the optimization-based fitted parameters and partial least squares regression-based testing parameters, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The accurate real-time estimation of PIC will benefit the AP systems by preventing overdelivery of insulin when significant insulin is present in the bloodstream.

Moderating effects of autism on parent views of genetic screening for aggression.

Advances in gene-environment interaction research have revealed genes that are associated with aggression. However, little is known about parent perceptions of genetic screening for behavioral symptoms like aggression as opposed to diagnosing disabilities. These perceptions may influence future research endeavors involving genetic linkage studies to behavior, including proactive approaches for parents to avoid events leading to aggression. The purpose of this study was to solicit the perspectives of parents who have children with autism about screening for genes associated with aggression, compared to responses from those who have children without disabilities and those planning to have children. Parents of children with autism were more likely to support screening and the use of the results to seek treatment if necessary. Results are discussed in the context of surveillance screening and systematic early intervention for behavioral symptoms related to autism. The results may provide insight for clincians, researchers, policymakers, and advocacy groups related to diagnosing and treating aggression in people with autism.

Minimum detectable change in gait velocity during acute rehabilitation following hip fracture.

PURPOSE: Early ambulation and rehabilitation are recommended for patients undergoing surgical fixation of hip fracture. Gait velocity may be used as an outcome measure for these patients during acute rehabilitation. As an outcome measure, an estimate of meaningful change (responsiveness) in gait velocity for these patients, however, has not been described. The minimum detectable change (MDC) is a value that represents true change in a measure beyond that accounted for by measurement error. The purpose of this study was to quantify MDC in gait velocity as an index of responsiveness for persons in the acute stage of rehabilitation following hip fracture. METHODS: The study design was a descriptive cohort study with one repeated measure. A volunteer sample of 16 subjects over the age of 65, at a mean of 4.7 days postsurgical fixation of unilateral hip fracture, participated in the study. The study was conducted in an acute care rehabilitation practice in a large, tertiary care hospital. We measured gait velocity with the 10-meter walk test, estimated test-retest reliability with an intraclass correlation coefficient and quantified responsiveness of gait velocity as the MDC at a 95% level of confidence. RESULTS: Mean gait velocity was 15 cm/s and the test-retest reliability coefficient was equal to 0.823. The MDC in gait velocity during acute rehabilitation following surgical repair for hip fracture was 8.2 cm/s. CONCLUSIONS: Self-selected gait velocity in patients during acute rehabilitation following surgical fixation for hip fracture must improve by 8.2 cm/s or more to designate the change as being real change beyond the bounds of measurement error.