The NSERC Canadian Lake Pulse Network: A national assessment of lake health providing science for water management in a changing climate.

The distribution and quality of water resources vary dramatically across Canada, and human impacts such as land-use and climate changes are exacerbating uncertainties in water supply and security. At the national level, Canada has no enforceable standards for safe drinking water and no comprehensive water-monitoring program to provide detailed, timely reporting on the state of water resources. To provide Canada's first national assessment of lake health, the NSERC Canadian Lake Pulse Network was launched in 2016 as an academic-government research partnership. LakePulse uses traditional approaches for limnological monitoring as well as state-of-the-art methods in the fields of genomics, emerging contaminants, greenhouse gases, invasive pathogens, paleolimnology, spatial modelling, statistical analysis, and remote sensing. A coordinated sampling program of about 680 lakes together with historical archives and a geomatics analysis of over 80,000 lake watersheds are used to examine the extent to which lakes are being altered now and in the future, and how this impacts aquatic ecosystem services of societal importance. Herein we review the network context, objectives and methods.

Assessing and monitoring agroenvironmental determinants of recreational freshwater quality using remote sensing.

Diverse fecal and nonfecal bacterial contamination and nutrient sources (e.g. agriculture, human activities and wildlife) represent a considerable non-point source load entering natural recreational waters which may adversely affect water quality. Monitoring of natural recreational water microbial quality is most often based mainly on testing a set of microbiological indicators. The cost and labour involved in testing numerous water samples may be significant when a large number of sites must be monitored repetitively over time. In addition to water testing, ongoing monitoring of key environmental factors known to influence microbial contamination may be carried out as an additional component. Monitoring of environmental factors can now be performed using remote sensing technology which represents an increasingly recognized source of rigorous and recurrent data, especially when monitoring over a large or difficult to access territory is needed. To determine whether this technology could be useful in the context of recreational water monitoring, we evaluated a set of agroenvironmental determinants associated with fecal contamination of recreational waters through a multivariable logistic regression model built with data extracted from satellite imagery. We found that variables describing the proportions of land with agricultural and impervious surfaces, as derived from remote sensing observations, were statistically associated (odds ratio, OR = 11 and 5.2, respectively) with a higher level of fecal coliforms in lake waters in the southwestern region of Quebec, Canada. From a technical perspective, remote sensing may provide important added-value in the monitoring of microbial risk from recreational waters and further applications of this technology should be investigated to support public health risk assessments and environmental monitoring programs relating to water quality.

Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities. RESULTS: A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CONCLUSION: We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps.