Application of the diffusion equation for modelling splash dispersal of point-source pathogens.

A model of splash dispersal of point-source pathogens is developed and parameterized from experimental data of Colletotrichum acutatum, the cause of strawberry anthracnose. Starting with analysis on a probability density function of a sum of random displacement vectors, the model turned out to be the fundamental solution of the classic diffusion equation. Model parameters were determined for three ground covers (plastic, soil, and straw) and two rain intensities (15 and 30 mm h-1 ). The nonlinear coefficient of determination varied from 0.80 to 0.96, indicating that the application of the diffusion equation is promising in modelling of splash dispersal processes from a point source over a homogeneous ground cover.