Aposematic Coloration of Moths Decreases Strongly along an Elevational Gradient in the Andes.

On tropical mountains, predation pressure decreases with elevation. Accordingly, one expects an elevational decay in the prevalence of costly defensive traits such as aposematic coloration. Using light-trap catches of Arctiinae moths (353 species, 4466 individuals), assembled along a forested gradient in the megadiverse tropical Andes of southern Ecuador, we show that the incidence of aposematic coloration decreases strongly between 1040 and 2670 m asl. While over 60% of Arctiinae moths were warningly colored at lowest sites, this fraction decreased to less than 20% in montane forest, yet increased slightly again at the highest sites in the very open Purdiaea nutans forest. In parallel, the incidence of hymenopteran mimics and of species that mimic chemically defended beetles decreased with elevation. Hymenopteran mimics accounted for less than 5% of Arctiinae moths at sites above 2100 m, and beetle mimics were essentially lacking at high elevations. These patterns coincide with a change in gross taxonomic composition of Arctiinae ensembles and with an increase in average body size towards higher elevations. Representatives of Euchromiina and Ctenuchina became scarce with altitude, whereas the prevalence of Lithosiinae increased. Our findings suggest that the variable selective pressures along the elevational gradient favor warning coloration primarily at lower sites, whereas cryptic appearance of adult moths dominates in the tropical upper montane forest.

A database and checklist of geometrid moths (Lepidoptera) from Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Molecular DNA sequence data allow unprecedented advances in biodiversity assessments, monitoring schemes and taxonomic works, particularly in poorly-explored areas. They allow, for instance, the sorting of material rapidly into operational taxonomic units (such as BINs - Barcode Index Numbers), sequences can be subject to diverse analyses and, with linked metadata and physical vouchers, they can be examined further by experts. However, a prerequisite for their exploitation is the construction of reference libraries of DNA sequences that represent the existing biodiversity. To achieve these goals for Geometridae (Lepidoptera) moths in Colombia, expeditions were carried out to 26 localities in the northern part of the country in 2015-2019. The aim was to collect specimens and sequence their DNA barcodes and to record a fraction of the species richness and occurrences in one of the most biodiversity-rich countries. These data are the beginning of an identification guide to Colombian geometrid moths, whose identities are currently often provisional only, being morpho species or operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Prior to the current dataset, 99 Geometridae sequences forming 44 BINs from Colombia were publicly available on the Barcode of Life Data System (BOLD), covering 20 species only. NEW INFORMATION: We enrich the Colombian Geometridae database significantly by including DNA barcodes, two nuclear markers, photos of vouchers and georeferenced occurrences of 281 specimens of geometrid moths from different localities. These specimens are classified into 80 genera. Analytical tools on BOLD clustered 157 of the mentioned sequences to existing BINs identified to species level, identified earlier by experts. Another 115 were assigned to BINs that were identified to genus or tribe level only. Eleven specimens did not match any existing BIN on BOLD and are, therefore, new additions to the database. It is likely that many BINs represent undescribed species. Nine short sequences (< 500bp) were not assigned to BINs, but identified to the lowest taxonomic category by expert taxonomists and with comparisons of type material photos. The released new genetic information will help to further progress the systematics of Geometridae. An illustrated catalogue of all new records allows validation of our identifications; it is also the first document of this kind for Colombian Geometridae. All specimens are deposited at the Museo de Zoología of Universidad de Sucre (MZUS), North Colombia. DNA BINs are reported in this study through dx.doi.org/10.5883/DS-GEOCO, the species occurrences are available on SIB Colombia https://sibcolombia.net/ and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) https://www.gbif.org/ through https://doi.org/10.15472/ucfmkh.

Alpha and beta diversity patterns of macro-moths reveal a breakpoint along a latitudinal gradient in Mongolia.

Little is known about the diversity and distribution patterns of moths along latitudinal gradients. We studied macro-moths in Mongolia along an 860 km latitudinal climatic gradient to gain knowledge on community composition, alpha, beta, and gamma diversity as well as underlying factors, which can be used as baseline information for further studies related to climate change. We identified 236 species of moths of ten families. Our study shows that the diversity of moths increased with the latitude, i.e., low species richness in the south and higher richness in the north. Moth community composition changed along the gradient, and we revealed a breakpoint of beta diversity that divided grassland and desert communities. In the desert, beta diversity was driven by species loss (i.e., nestedness), and few tolerant species existed with high abundance. In contrast, in the grassland, beta diversity was driven by species replacement with more unique species, (i.e., species which occurred only in one site). We found the lowest species diversity in the transitional zones dominated by few generalist species such as Agrotis ripae and Anarta trifolii. Low precipitation and an increasing number of grazing goats are drivers of species loss. We suggest different conservation strategies regarding the contrasting patterns of beta diversity in desert and grassland.

Trait Variation in Moths Mirrors Small-Scaled Ecological Gradients in A Tropical Forest Landscape.

Along environmental gradients, communities are expected to be filtered from the regional species pool by physical constraints, resource availability, and biotic interactions. This should be reflected in species trait composition. Using data on species-rich moth assemblages sampled by light traps in a lowland rainforest landscape in Costa Rica, we show that moths in two unrelated clades (Erebidae-Arctiinae; Geometridae) are much smaller-sized in oil palm plantations than in nearby old-growth forest, with intermediate values at disturbed forest sites. In old-growth forest, Arctiinae predominantly show aposematic coloration as a means of anti-predator defense, whereas this trait is much reduced in the prevalence in plantations. Similarly, participation in Müllerian mimicry rings with Hymenoptera and Lycidae beetles, respectively, is rare in plantations. Across three topographic types of old-growth forests, community-weighted means of moth traits showed little variation, but in creek forest, both types of mimicry were surprisingly rare. Our results emphasize that despite their mobility, moth assemblages are strongly shaped by local environmental conditions through the interplay of bottom-up and top-down processes. Assemblages in oil palm plantations are highly degraded not only in their biodiversity, but also in terms of trait expression.

A comprehensive molecular phylogeny of Geometridae (Lepidoptera) with a focus on enigmatic small subfamilies.

Our study aims to investigate the relationships of the major lineages within the moth family Geometridae, with a focus on the poorly studied Oenochrominae-Desmobathrinae complex, and to translate some of the results into a coherent subfamilial and tribal level classification for the family. We analyzed a molecular dataset of 1,206 Geometroidea terminal taxa from all biogeographical regions comprising up to 11 molecular markers that includes one mitochondrial (COI) and 10 protein-coding nuclear gene regions (wingless, ArgK, MDH, RpS5, GAPDH, IDH, Ca-ATPase, Nex9, EF-1alpha, CAD). The molecular data set was analyzed using maximum likelihood as implemented in IQ-TREE and RAxML. We found high support for the subfamilies Larentiinae, Geometrinae and Ennominae in their traditional scopes. Sterrhinae becomes monophyletic only if Ergavia Walker, Ametris Hübner and Macrotes Westwood, which are currently placed in Oenochrominae, are formally transferred to Sterrhinae. Desmobathrinae and Oenochrominae are found to be polyphyletic. The concepts of Oenochrominae and Desmobathrinae required major revision and, after appropriate rearrangements, these groups also form monophyletic subfamily-level entities. Oenochrominae s.str. as originally conceived by Guenée is phylogenetically distant from Epidesmia and its close relatives. The latter is hereby described as the subfamily Epidesmiinae Murillo-Ramos, Sihvonen & Brehm, subfam. nov. Epidesmiinae are a lineage of "slender-bodied Oenochrominae" that include the genera Ecphyas Turner, Systatica Turner, Adeixis Warren, Dichromodes Guenée, Phrixocomes Turner, Abraxaphantes Warren, Epidesmia Duncan & Westwood and Phrataria Walker. Archiearinae are monophyletic when Dirce and Acalyphes are formally transferred to Ennominae. We also found that many tribes were para- or polyphyletic and therefore propose tens of taxonomic changes at the tribe and subfamily levels. Archaeobalbini stat. rev. Viidalepp (Geometrinae) is raised from synonymy with Pseudoterpnini Warren to tribal rank. Chlorodontoperini Murillo-Ramos, Sihvonen & Brehm, trib. nov. and Drepanogynini Murillo-Ramos, Sihvonen & Brehm, trib. nov. are described as new tribes in Geometrinae and Ennominae, respectively.

Phylogenetics of moth-like butterflies (Papilionoidea: Hedylidae) based on a new 13-locus target capture probe set.

The Neotropical moth-like butterflies (Hedylidae) are perhaps the most unusual butterfly family. In addition to being species-poor, this family is predominantly nocturnal and has anti-bat ultrasound hearing organs. Evolutionary relationships among the 36 described species are largely unexplored. A new, target capture, anchored hybrid enrichment probe set ('BUTTERFLY2.0') was developed to infer relationships of hedylids and some of their butterfly relatives. The probe set includes 13 genes that have historically been used in butterfly phylogenetics. Our dataset comprised of up to 10,898 aligned base pairs from 22 hedylid species and 19 outgroups. Eleven of the thirteen loci were successfully captured from all samples, and the remaining loci were captured from ≥94% of samples. The inferred phylogeny was consistent with recent molecular studies by placing Hedylidae sister to Hesperiidae, and the tree had robust support for 80% of nodes. Our results are also consistent with morphological studies, with Macrosoma tipulata as the sister species to all remaining hedylids, followed by M. semiermis sister to the remaining species in the genus. We tested the hypothesis that nocturnality evolved once from diurnality in Hedylidae, and demonstrate that the ancestral condition was likely diurnal, with a shift to nocturnality early in the diversification of this family. The BUTTERFLY2.0 probe set includes standard butterfly phylogenetics markers, captures sequences from decades-old museum specimens, and is a cost-effective technique to infer phylogenetic relationships of the butterfly tree of life.

Diversification rates, host plant shifts and an updated molecular phylogeny of Andean Eois moths (Lepidoptera: Geometridae).

Eois is one of the best-investigated genera of tropical moths. Its close association with Piper plants has inspired numerous studies on life histories, phylogeny and evolutionary biology. This study provides an updated view on phylogeny, host plant use and temporal patterns of speciation in Eois. Using sequence data (2776 bp) from one mitochondrial (COI) and one nuclear gene (Ef1-alpha) for 221 Eois species, we confirm and reinforce previous findings regarding temporal patterns of diversification. Deep diversification within Andean Eois took place in the Miocene followed by a sustained high rate of diversification until the Pleistocene when a pronounced slowdown of speciation is evident. In South America, Eois diversification is very likely to be primarily driven by the Andean uplift which occurred concurrently with the entire evolutionary history of Eois. A massively expanded dataset enabled an in-depth look into the phylogenetic signal contained in host plant usage. This revealed several independent shifts from Piper to other host plant genera and families. Seven shifts to Peperomia, the sister genus of Piper were detected, indicating that the shift to Peperomia was an easy one compared to the singular shifts to the Chloranthaceae, Siparunaceae and the Piperacean genus Manekia. The potential for close co-evolution of Eois with Piper host plants is therefore bound to be limited to smaller subsets within Neotropical Eois instead of a frequently proposed genus-wide co-evolutionary scenario. In regards to Eois systematics we confirm the monophyly of Neotropical Eois in relation to their Old World counterparts. A tentative biogeographical hypothesis is presented suggesting that Eois originated in tropical Asia and subsequently colonized the Neotropics and Africa. Within Neotropical Eois we were able to identify the existence of six clades not recognized in previous studies and confirm and reinforce the monophyly of all 9 previously delimited infrageneric clades.

Midpoint attractors and species richness: Modelling the interaction between environmental drivers and geometric constraints.

We introduce a novel framework for conceptualising, quantifying and unifying discordant patterns of species richness along geographical gradients. While not itself explicitly mechanistic, this approach offers a path towards understanding mechanisms. In this study, we focused on the diverse patterns of species richness on mountainsides. We conjectured that elevational range midpoints of species may be drawn towards a single midpoint attractor - a unimodal gradient of environmental favourability. The midpoint attractor interacts with geometric constraints imposed by sea level and the mountaintop to produce taxon-specific patterns of species richness. We developed a Bayesian simulation model to estimate the location and strength of the midpoint attractor from species occurrence data sampled along mountainsides. We also constructed midpoint predictor models to test whether environmental variables could directly account for the observed patterns of species range midpoints. We challenged these models with 16 elevational data sets, comprising 4500 species of insects, vertebrates and plants. The midpoint predictor models generally failed to predict the pattern of species midpoints. In contrast, the midpoint attractor model closely reproduced empirical spatial patterns of species richness and range midpoints. Gradients of environmental favourability, subject to geometric constraints, may parsimoniously account for elevational and other patterns of species richness.

Turning Up the Heat on a Hotspot: DNA Barcodes Reveal 80% More Species of Geometrid Moths along an Andean Elevational Gradient.

We sampled 14,603 geometrid moths along a forested elevational gradient from 1020-3021 m in the southern Ecuadorian Andes, and then employed DNA barcoding to refine decisions on species boundaries initially made by morphology. We compared the results with those from an earlier study on the same but slightly shorter gradient that relied solely on morphological criteria to discriminate species. The present analysis revealed 1857 putative species, an 80% increase in species richness from the earlier study that detected only 1010 species. Measures of species richness and diversity that are less dependent on sample size were more than twice as high as in the earlier study, even when analysis was restricted to an identical elevational range. The estimated total number of geometrid species (new dataset) in the sampled area is 2350. Species richness at single sites was 32-43% higher, and the beta diversity component rose by 43-51%. These impacts of DNA barcoding on measures of richness reflect its capacity to reveal cryptic species that were overlooked in the first study. The overall results confirmed unique diversity patterns reported in the first investigation. Species diversity was uniformly high along the gradient, declining only slightly above 2800 m. Species turnover also showed little variation along the gradient, reinforcing the lack of evidence for discrete faunal zones. By confirming these major biodiversity patterns, the present study establishes that incomplete species delineation does not necessarily conceal trends of biodiversity along ecological gradients, but it impedes determination of the true magnitude of diversity and species turnover.

Host Plant Associations and Parasitism of South Ecuadorian Eois Species (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) Feeding on Peperomia (Piperaceae).

The very species-rich tropical moth genus Eois Hübner (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is a promising model group for studying host plant specialization and adaptive radiation. While most Eois species are assumed to be specialized herbivores on Piper L. species, records on other plant taxa such as Peperomia Ruiz & Pavón (Piperaceae) are still relatively scarce. Moreover, little is known about life history traits of most species, and only a few caterpillars have been described so far. We collected caterpillars associated with Peperomia (Piperaceae) host plants from June 2012 to January 2013 in three elevational bands of montane and elfin rainforests on the eastern slopes of the Andes in southern Ecuador. Caterpillars were systematically searched and reared to the adult stage. We were able to delimitate ten species of Eois on Peperomia by comparison of larval and adult morphology and by using 658 bp fragments of the mitochondrial COI gene (barcode sequences). Three of these species, Eois albosignata (Dognin), Eois bolana (Dognin), and Eois chasca (Dognin), are validly described whereas the other seven taxa represent interim morphospecies, recognized unequivocally by their DNA barcodes, and their larval and adult morphology. We provide information about their host plants, degree of parasitism, and describe the larval stages in their last instar. Additionally, caterpillars and moths are illustrated in color plates. This is the first comparative study dealing with Eois moths whose caterpillars feed on Peperomia hosts.

The unique sound production of the Death's-head hawkmoth (Acherontia atropos (Linnaeus, 1758)) revisited.

When disturbed, adults of the Death's-head hawkmoth (Lepidoptera, Sphingidae: Acherontia atropos) produce short squeaks by drawing in and deflating air into and out of the pharynx as a defence mechanism. We took a new look at Prell's hypothesis of a two-phase mechanism by providing new insights into the functional morphology behind the pharyngeal sound production of this species. First, we compared the head anatomy of A. atropos with another sphingid species, Manduca sexta, by using micro-computed tomography (CT) and 3D reconstruction methods. Despite differences in feeding behaviour and capability of sound production in the two species, the musculature in the head is surprisingly similar. However, A. atropos has a much shorter proboscis and a modified epipharynx with a distinct sclerotised lobe projecting into the opening of the pharynx. Second, we observed the sound production in vivo with X-ray videography, mammography CT and high-speed videography. Third, we analysed acoustic pressure over time and spectral frequency composition of six A. atropos specimens, both intact and with a removed proboscis. Single squeaks of A. atropos last for ca. 200 ms and consist of an inflation phase, a short pause and a deflation phase. The inflation phase is characterised by a burst of ca. 50 pulses with decreasing pulse frequency and a major frequency peak at ca. 8 kHz, followed by harmonics ranging up to more than 60 kHz. The deflation phase is characterised by a less clear acoustic pattern, a lower amplitude and more pronounced peaks in the same frequency range. The removal of the proboscis resulted in a significantly shortened squeak, a lower acoustic pressure level and a slightly more limited frequency spectrum. We hypothesise that the uptake of viscous honey facilitated the evolution of an efficient valve at the opening of the pharynx (i.e. a modified epipharynx), and that sound production could relatively easily have evolved based on this morphological pre-adaptation.

Three new species of Hagnagora Druce, 1885 (Lepidoptera, Geometridae, Larentiinae) from Ecuador and Costa Rica and a concise revision of the genus.

Three new Hagnagora Druce species (Geometridae, Larentiinae) are described: Hagnagora richardi Brehm, sp. n. from Ecuador, Hagnagora hedwigae Brehm, sp. n. from Ecuador, and Hagnagora mirandahenrichae Brehm, sp. n. from Costa Rica. A checklist of taxa assigned to Hagnagora is provided. Hagnagora is provisionally divided into six clades: the anicata clade (6 species), the buckleyi clade (3 species), the croceitincta clade (3 species), the ephestris clade (3 species), the mortipax clade (4 species) and Hagnagora subrosea (1 species). Two taxa are revived from synonymy: Hagnagora catagrammina Druce, stat. rev. and Hagnagora luteoradiata Thierry-Mieg, stat. rev. Two taxa are reinstated from subspecies to species level: Hagnagora acothysta Schaus, stat. rev. and Hagnagora jamaicensis Schaus, stat. rev. Four taxa are provisionally removed from Hagnagora: "Hagnagora" ignipennis, "Hagnagora" mesenata, "Hagnagora" vittata, and "Hagnagora" ceraria. After these changes, the genus Hagnagora now comprises 20 valid species.

A simple "hands-off" apparatus to inflate concealed soft parts of the genitalia of small insect specimens.

We describe a simple, effective and relatively cheap instrument for the inflation of soft parts of insect genitalia, particularly the vesica (endophallus) of small male lepidopteran specimens. It can also be applied in female genitalia and for the hyperextension of postabdominal segments of the telescoping type. A fine glass capillary is mounted on a self-constructed micromanipulator system with capillary holder, moveably placed aside a microscope. The micromanipulator is constructed from the x- and y-pinions of a discarded microscope table and the z-pinion of a discarded microscope. Preparation is carried out as usual on a microscopic slide. The inflatable soft parts are pushed out mechanically and then fully inflated and subsequently hardened by pumping absolute alcohol with a medical syringe via a flexible PVC tube, the capillary holder and the glass capillary into the phallus. With affordable effort, our "hands-off"apparatus might considerably ease preparation.

DNA barcode sequencing from old type specimens as a tool in taxonomy: a case study in the diverse genus Eois (Lepidoptera: Geometridae).

In this study we report on the sequencing of the COI barcode region from 96 historical specimens (92 type specimens +4 non-types) of Eois. Eois is a diverse clade of tropical geometrid moths and is the target of a number of ongoing studies on life-histories, phylogeny, co-evolution with host plants or parasitoids, and diversity patterns across temporal and spatial dimensions. The unequivocal application of valid names is crucial for all aspects of biodiversity research as well as monitoring and conservation efforts. The availability of barcodes from historical type specimens has the potential to facilitate the much-needed acceleration of species description. We performed non-destructive DNA extraction on the abdomens of Eois specimens between 79 and 157 years of age. We used six primer combinations (recovering between 109 and 130 bp each) to target the full-length barcode sequence of each specimen. We were able to obtain sequences for 91 of 96 specimens (success rate 94.8%). Sequence length ranged from 121 bp to full barcode sequences (658 bp), the average sequence length was ~500 bp. We detected a moderately strong and statistically significant negative correlation between specimen age and total sequence length, which is in agreement with expectations. The abdomen proved to be an exceedingly valuable source of DNA in old specimens of Lepidoptera. Barcode sequences obtained in this study are currently being used in an effort towards a step-wise taxonomic revision of Eois. We encourage that DNA barcodes obtained from types specimens should be included in all species descriptions and revisions whenever feasible.

Comprehensive molecular sampling yields a robust phylogeny for geometrid moths (Lepidoptera: Geometridae).

BACKGROUND: The moth family Geometridae (inchworms or loopers), with approximately 23,000 described species, is the second most diverse family of the Lepidoptera. Apart from a few recent attempts based on morphology and molecular studies, the phylogeny of these moths has remained largely uninvestigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a rigorous and extensive molecular analysis of eight genes to examine the geometrid affinities in a global context, including a search for its potential sister-taxa. Our maximum likelihood analyses included 164 taxa distributed worldwide, of which 150 belong to the Geometridae. The selected taxa represent all previously recognized subfamilies and nearly 90% of recognized tribes, and originate from all over world. We found the Geometridae to be monophyletic with the Sematuridae+Epicopeiidae clade potentially being its sister-taxon. We found all previously recognized subfamilies to be monophyletic, with a few taxa misplaced, except the Oenochrominae+Desmobathrinae complex that is a polyphyletic assemblage of taxa and the Orthostixinae, which was positioned within the Ennominae. The Sterrhinae and Larentiinae were found to be sister to the remaining taxa, followed by Archiearinae, the polyphyletic assemblage of Oenochrominae+Desmobathrinae moths, Geometrinae and Ennominae. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study provides the first comprehensive phylogeny of the Geometridae in a global context. Our results generally agree with the other, more restricted studies, suggesting that the general phylogenetic patterns of the Geometridae are now well-established. Generally the subfamilies, many tribes, and assemblages of tribes were well supported but their interrelationships were often weakly supported by our data. The Eumeleini were particularly difficult to place in the current system, and several tribes were found to be para- or polyphyletic.

Tropical forests are not flat: how mountains affect herbivore diversity.

Ecologists debate whether tropical insect diversity is better explained by higher plant diversity or by host plant species specialization. However, plant-herbivore studies are primarily based in lowland rainforests (RF) thus excluding topographical effects on biodiversity. We examined turnover in Eois (Geometridae) communities across elevation by studying elevational transects in Costa Rica and Ecuador. We found four distinct Eois communities existing across the elevational gradients. Herbivore diversity was highest in montane forests (MF), whereas host plant diversity was highest in lowland RF. This was correlated with higher specialization and species richness of Eois/host plant species we found in MF. Based on these relationships, Neotropical Eois richness was estimated to range from 313 (only lowland RF considered) to 2034 (considering variation with elevation). We conclude that tropical herbivore diversity and diet breadth covary significantly with elevation and urge the inclusion of montane ecosystems in host specialization and arthropod diversity estimates.

Caterpillars and host plant records for 59 species of Geometridae (Lepidoptera) from a montane rainforest in southern Ecuador.

During four months of field surveys at the Reserva Biológica San Francisco in the south Ecuadorian Andes, caterpillars of 59 Geometridae species were collected in a montane rainforest between 1800 and 2800m altitude and reared to adults. The resulting data on host plant affiliations of these species was collated. The preimaginal stages of 58 and adult stages of all 59 species are depicted in colour plates. Observations on morphology and behaviour are briefly described. Five species, documented for the first time in the study area by means of larval collections, had not been previously collected by intensive light-trap surveys. Together with published literature records, life-history data covers 8.6% of the 1271 geometrid species observed so far in the study area. For 50 species these are the first records of their early stages, and for another 7 the data significantly extend known host plant ranges. Most larvae were collected on shrubs or trees, but more unusual host plant affiliations, such as ferns (6 geometrid species) and lichens (3 geometrid species), were also recorded. Thirty-four percent of the caterpillars were infested by wasp or tachinid parasitoids.

Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics.

Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.