Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified thirteen mutations in Spike that are accumulating. Mutations are considered in a broader phylogenetic context, geographically, and over time, to provide an early warning system to reveal mutations that may confer selective advantages in transmission or resistance to interventions. Each one is evaluated for evidence of positive selection, and the implications of the mutation are explored through structural modeling. The mutation Spike D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February, and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form. Also, we present evidence of recombination between locally circulating strains, indicative of multiple strain infections. These finding have important implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, pathogenesis and immune interventions.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 through Recombination and Strong Purifying Selection

COVID-19 has become a global pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Understanding the origins of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for deterring future zoonosis and for drug discovery and vaccine development. We show evidence of strong purifying selection around the receptor binding motif (RBM) in the spike gene and in other genes among bat, pangolin and human coronaviruses, indicating similar strong evolutionary constraints in different host species. We also demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2s entire RBM was introduced through recombination with coronaviruses from pangolins, possibly a critical step in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2s ability to infect humans. Similar purifying selection in different host species and frequent recombination among coronaviruses suggest a common evolutionary mechanism that could lead to new emerging human coronaviruses. One Sentence SummaryExtensive Recombination and Strong Purifying Selection among coronaviruses from different hosts facilitate the emergence of SARS-CoV-2