Place of Death for Adults Receiving Specialist Palliative Care in Their Last 3 Months of Life: Factors Associated With Preferred Place, Actual Place, and Place of Death Congruence.

Objectives: Congruence between the preferred and actual place of death is recognised as an important quality indicator in end-of-life care. However, there may be complexities about preferences that are ignored in summary congruence measures. This article examined factors associated with preferred place of death, actual place of death, and congruence for a sample of patients who had received specialist palliative care in the last three months of life in Ireland. Methods: This article analysed merged data from two previously published mortality follow-back surveys: Economic Evaluation of Palliative Care in Ireland (EEPCI); Irish component of International Access, Rights and Empowerment (IARE I). Logistic regression models examined factors associated with (a) preferences for home death versus institutional setting, (b) home death versus hospital death, and (c) congruent versus non-congruent death. Setting: Four regions with differing levels of specialist palliative care development in Ireland. Participants: Mean age 77, 50% female/male, 19% living alone, 64% main diagnosis cancer. Data collected 2011-2015, regression model sample sizes: n = 342-351. Results: Congruence between preferred and actual place of death in the raw merged dataset was 51%. Patients living alone were significantly less likely to prefer home versus institution death (OR 0.389, 95%CI 0.157-0.961), less likely to die at home (OR 0.383, 95%CI 0.274-0.536), but had no significant association with congruence. Conclusions: The findings highlight the value in examining place of death preferences as well as congruence, because preferences may be influenced by what is feasible rather than what patients would like. The analyses also underline the importance of well-resourced community-based supports, including homecare, facilitating hospital discharge, and management of complex (eg, non-cancer) conditions, to facilitate patients to die in their preferred place.

Projected private hospital expenditure in Ireland, 2018-2035: What role for demographics, cost, and Sláintecare?

Despite private hospitals occupying an important role in the delivery of acute hospital care in Ireland, an understanding of future spending pressures on these services is limited. Particularly, a key dimension of Ireland's ambitious roadmap for healthcare reform (Sláintecare) seeks to remove private practice from public hospitals. However, to date, there has been no examination of how this reform could impact private hospital demand and expenditure, and ultimately, the capacity to treat public patients. Using previously unavailable administrative health insurer data and a healthcare macro-simulation projection model, we project real (volume-based) and nominal expenditure on private hospital services over the medium-term (2018-2035). We develop a number of projection scenarios that vary assumptions in relation to population growth and ageing, healthy ageing, and the future cost of care delivery. Additionally, by developing profiles of private activity in public hospitals, we examine how the removal of private practice from public hospitals could impact on demand and expenditure in private hospitals over time. Findings from this analysis have implications for capital investment and workforce planning in private hospitals, and failure to meet future demand could have implications for access to care in public hospitals. Moreover, should private practice be ended in public hospitals, most complex private in-patient and emergency care is likely to remain within the public hospitals with limited capacity benefits for the public system.

Does maternal obesity explain trends in caesarean section rates? Evidence from a large Irish maternity hospital.

BACKGROUND: A feature of contemporary obstetrics in wealthy countries has been both the continuing increase in caesarean section (CS) rates and the emergence of high levels of maternal obesity. AIMS: The purpose of this study was to examine whether the increasing CS rate in a large university maternity hospital was attributable in part to maternal obesity. METHODS: We studied all women who delivered a baby weighing ≥ 500 g from 2009 to 2014 in one of the largest maternity hospitals in Europe. Logistic regression techniques were employed to examine the contribution of trends in maternal BMI on the prevalence of CS. RESULTS: Obese women were more likely to be delivered by CS in 2014 than in 2009. Multivariate analysis shows that the increase in CS rates could not be explained by changes in obesity levels in either nulliparas or multiparas. The increase in CS rates during the 6 years was strongly associated with advancing maternal age, particularly for nulliparas. CONCLUSIONS: The study found that although the prevalence of being overweight or obese changed little over the period, the odds of having a CS if a woman is obese have increased for multiparas. For nulliparas, increasing CS rates were found to be strongly associated with an increase in maternal age over the period which is important because of the evidence that Irish women are choosing to defer having their first baby until later in life.

Did the expansion of free GP care impact demand for Emergency Department attendances? A difference-in-differences analysis.

The removal of co-payments for General Practitioner (GP) services has been shown to increase utilisation of GP care. The introduction of free GP care may also have spillover effects on utilisation of other healthcare such as Emergency Department (ED) services, which often serve as substitutes for primary care, and where co-payments to attend exist for many. In Ireland, out-of-pocket payments are paid by the majority of the population to access GP care, and these costs are amongst the highest in Europe. However, in July 2015 all children in Ireland aged under 6 became eligible for free GP care. Using a large administrative dataset on 413,562 ED attendances between January 2015 and June 2016 we apply a difference-in-differences method, with treatment and control groups differentiated by age, to examine whether ED utilisation changed amongst younger children following the introduction of universal free GP care. In particular, we examine ED attendances following a GP referral, as referrals from GPs also afford access to the ED free of charge. We find that the expansion of free GP care did not reduce overall ED utilisation for under 6s. Additionally, we find that the proportion of ED attendances occurring through GP referrals increased by over 2 percentage points. This latter finding may be indicative of increased pressure placed on GPs from increased demand. Overall, this study finds that expanding free GP care to all young children did not reduce their ED utilisation.

How many beds? Capacity implications of hospital care demand projections in the Irish hospital system, 2015-2030.

Existing Irish hospital bed capacity is low by international standards while Ireland also reports the highest inpatient bed occupancy rate across OECD countries. Moreover, strong projected population growth and ageing is expected to increase demand for hospital care substantially by 2030. Reform proposals have suggested that increased investment and access to nonacute care may mitigate some increased demand for hospital care over the next number of years, and it is in this context that the Irish government has committed to increase the supply of public hospital beds by 2600 by 2027. Incorporating assumptions on the rebalancing of care to nonhospital settings, this paper analyses the capacity implications of projected demand for hospital care in Ireland to 2030. This analysis employs the HIPPOCRATES macrosimulation projection model of health care demand and expenditure developed in the ESRI to project public and private hospital bed capacity requirements in Ireland to 2030. We examine 6 alternative projection scenarios that vary assumptions related to population growth and ageing, healthy ageing, unmet demand, hospital occupancy, hospital length of stay, and avoidable hospitalisations. We project an increased need for between 4000 and 6300 beds across public and private hospitals (an increase of between 26.1% and 41.1%), of which 3200 to 5600 will be required in public hospitals. These findings suggest that government plans to increase public hospital capacity over the 10 years to 2027 by 2600 may not be sufficient to meet demand requirements to 2030, even when models of care changes are accounted for.

Costs of formal and informal care in the last year of life for patients in receipt of specialist palliative care.

BACKGROUND: Economic evaluation of palliative care has been slow to develop and the evidence base remains small. AIM: This article estimates formal and informal care costs in the last year of life for a sample of patients who received specialist palliative care in three different areas in Ireland. DESIGN: Formal care costs are calculated for community, specialist palliative care, acute hospital and other services. Where possible, a bottom-up approach is used, multiplying service utilisation by unit cost. Informal care is valued at the replacement cost of care. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Data on utilisation were collected during 215 'after death' telephone interviews with a person centrally involved in the care in the last year of life of decedents who received specialist palliative care in three areas in Ireland with varying levels of specialist palliative care. RESULTS: Mean total formal and informal costs in the last year of life do not vary significantly across the three areas. The components of formal costs, however, do vary across areas, particularly for hospital and specialist palliative care in the last 3 months of life. CONCLUSION: Costs in the last year of life for patients in receipt of specialist palliative care are considerable. Where inpatient hospice care is available, there are potential savings in hospital costs to offset specialist palliative care inpatient costs. Informal care accounts for a high proportion of costs during the last year of life in each area, underlining the important role of informal caregivers in palliative care.

Differences in nulliparous caesarean section rates across models of care: a decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the extent of the difference in elective (ELCS) and emergency (EMCS) caesarean section (CS) rates between nulliparous women in public maternity hospitals in Ireland by model of care, and to quantify the contribution of maternal, clinical, and hospital characteristics in explaining the difference in the rates. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis using a combination of two routinely collected administrative databases was performed. A non-linear extension of the Oaxaca-Blinder method is used to decompose the difference between public and private ELCS and EMCS rates into the proportion explained by the differences in observable maternal, clinical, and hospital characteristics and the proportion that remains unexplained. RESULTS: Of the 29,870 babies delivered to nulliparous women, 7,792 were delivered via CS (26.1 %), 79.6 % of which were coded as EMCS. Higher prevalence of ELCS was associated with breech presentation, other malpresentation, and the mother being over 40 years old. Higher prevalence of EMCS was associated with placenta praevia or placental abruption, diabetes (pre-existing and gestational), and being over 40 years old. The private model of care is associated with ELCS and EMCS rates 6 percentage points higher compared than the public model of care but this differential is insignificant in the fully adjusted models for EMCS. Just over half (53 %) of the 6 percentage point difference in ELCS rates between the two models of care can be accounted for by maternal, clinical and hospital characteristics. Almost 80 % of the difference for EMCS can be accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the difference in EMCS rates across models of care can be explained by differing characteristics between the two groups of women. The main contributor to the difference was advancing maternal age. The unexplained component of the difference for ELCS is larger; an excess private effect remains after accounting for maternal, clinical, and hospital characteristics. This requires further investigation and may be mitigated in future with the introduction of clinical guidelines related to CS.

Variation in induction of labour rates across Irish hospitals; a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: In developed countries, rates of induction of labour (IOL) have increased and vary between hospitals. We aimed to identify whether national variations could be explained by sociodemographic, clinical and organisational differences. METHODS: Two national databases in Ireland that routinely collect clinical and administrative data, the National Perinatal Reporting System and the Hospital Inpatient Enquiry Scheme, were used to analyse data for all women with singleton births weighing ≥500 g in 2009. We used logistic multilevel models to examine variation between hospitals, and to determine how much variation was due to individual level sociodemographic, clinical and organisational variables. Analyses were stratified for nulliparas, multiparas without prior caesarean section (CS) and multiparas with prior CS. RESULTS: Of 69 304 eligible births, the rate of IOL nationally was 25.0% (range 14.5-33.2%).In nulliparas, the mean rate was 30.9% (range 18.6-45.7%). The rate was 24.8% (13.5-33.3%) and 3.8% (0.0-10.2%) for multiparas without and with prior CS, respectively. In nulliparas and multiparas without prior CS IOL was predicted by maternal birth in Ireland, increasing birthweight, antepartum complications, giving birth on a weekday and the model of obstetric care. Even after adjusting for known sociodemographic and clinical variables, variation between hospitals remained. CONCLUSION: We found that clinical, sociodemographic and organisational factors all contributed to variation. However, unexplained variation persisted possibly due to organisational factors such as hospital-specific policies on IOL. The results indicate that the prevalence of antenatal complications, changing immigration patterns and policies on IOL after previous CS are factors likely to influence future IOL rates.

National Variation in Caesarean Section Rates: A Cross Sectional Study in Ireland.

OBJECTIVE: Internationally, caesarean section (CS) rates are rising. However, mean rates of CS across providers obscure extremes of CS provision. We aimed to quantify variation between all maternity units in Ireland. METHODS: Two national databases, the National Perinatal Reporting System and the Hospital Inpatient Enquiry Scheme, were used to analyse data for all women delivering singleton births weighing ≥500g. We used multilevel models to examine variation between hospitals in Ireland for elective and emergency CS, adjusted for individual level sociodemographic, clinical and organisational variables. Analyses were subsequently stratified for nullipara and multipara with and without prior CS. RESULTS: The national CS rate was 25.6% (range 18.2% ─ 35.1%). This was highest in multipara with prior CS at 86.1% (range 6.9% ─ 100%). The proportion of variation in CS that was attributable to the hospital of birth was 11.1% (95% CI, 6.0 ─ 19.4) for elective CS and 2.9% (95% CI, 1.4 ─ 5.6) for emergency CS, after adjustment. Stratifying across parity group, variation between hospitals was greatest for multipara with prior CS. Both types of CS were predicted by increasing age, prior history of miscarriage or stillbirth, prior CS, antenatal complications and private model of care. CONCLUSION: The proportion of variation attributable to the hospital was higher for elective CS than emergency CS suggesting that variation is more likely influenced by antenatal decision making than intrapartum decision making. Multipara with prior CS were particularly subject to variability, highlighting a need for consensus on appropriate care in this group.

Evidence on the cost and cost-effectiveness of palliative care: a literature review.

BACKGROUND: In the context of limited resources, evidence on costs and cost-effectiveness of alternative methods of delivering health-care services is increasingly important to facilitate appropriate resource allocation. Palliative care services have been expanding worldwide with the aim of improving the experience of patients with terminal illness at the end of life through better symptom control, coordination of care and improved communication between professionals and the patient and family. AIM: To present results from a comprehensive literature review of available international evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of palliative care interventions in any setting (e.g. hospital-based, home-based and hospice care) over the period 2002-2011. DESIGN: Key bibliographic and review databases were searched. Quality of retrieved papers was assessed against a set of 31 indicators developed for this review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EURONHEED, the Applied Social Sciences Index and the Cochrane library of databases. RESULTS: A total of 46 papers met the criteria for inclusion in the review, examining the cost and/or utilisation implications of a palliative care intervention with some form of comparator. The main focus of these studies was on direct costs with little focus on informal care or out-of-pocket costs. The overall quality of the studies is mixed, although a number of cohort studies do undertake multivariate regression analysis. CONCLUSION: Despite wide variation in study type, characteristic and study quality, there are consistent patterns in the results. Palliative care is most frequently found to be less costly relative to comparator groups, and in most cases, the difference in cost is statistically significant.