Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea.

Climate change is posing additional pressures on coastal ecosystems due to variations in water biogeochemical and physico-chemical parameters (e.g., pH, salinity) leading to aquatic ecosystem degradation. With the main aim of analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on marine water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic. It integrates the outputs of regional biogeochemical and physico-chemical models considering future climate change scenarios (i.e., years 2070 and 2100) with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. Results showed that salinity and temperature will be the main drivers of changes, together with macronutrients, especially in the area of the Po' river delta. The final outputs are exposure, susceptibility and risk maps supporting the communication of the potential consequences of climate change on water quality to decision makers and stakeholders and provide a basis for the definition of adaptation and management strategies.

Linking food web functioning and habitat diversity for an ecosystem based management: a Mediterranean lagoon case-study.

We propose a modelling approach relating the functioning of a transitional ecosystem with the spatial extension of its habitats. A test case is presented for the lagoon of Venice, discussing the results in the context of the application of current EU directives. The effects on food web functioning due to changes related to manageable and unmanageable drivers were investigated. The modelling procedure involved the use of steady-state food web models and network analysis, respectively applied to estimate the fluxes of energy associated with trophic interactions, and to compute indices of food web functioning. On the long term (hundred years) temporal scale, the model indicated that the expected loss of salt marshes will produce further changes at the system level, with a lagoon showing a decrease in the energy processing efficiency. On the short term scale, simulation results indicated that fishery management accompanied by seagrass restoration measures would produce a slight transition towards a more healthy system, with higher energy cycling, and maintaining a good balance between processing efficiency and resilience. Scenarios presented suggest that the effectiveness of short term management strategies can be better evaluated when contextualized in the long term trends of evolution of a system. We also remark the need for further studying the relationship between habitat diversity and indicators of food web functioning.