Selection bias between 2 Medicare capitated benefit programs.

OBJECTIVES: To assess enrollment selection bias between a standard Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO) and a higher-priced social health maintenance organization (SHMO) offering full prescription drug and unique home-based and community-based benefits and to assess how adverse selection was handled through SHMO finances. STUDY DESIGN: Kaiser Permanente Northwest offered the dual-choice option in the greater Portland region from 1985 to 2002. Analysis focused on 3 "choice points" when options were clear and highlighted for beneficiaries. Data collected included age and sex, utilization 1 year before and after the choice points, health status data at enrollment (1999-2002 only), mortality, and cost and revenues. Data were extracted from health plan databases. METHODS: Hospital, pharmacy, and nursing facility utilization for 1 year before and after the choice points are compared for HMO and SHMO choosers. Health and functional status data are compared from 1999 to 2002. Utilization and mortality data are controlled by age and sex. RESULTS: SHMO joiners evidenced adverse selection, while healthier members tended to stay in the HMO, with leaner benefits. Despite adverse selection, the health plan maintained margins in the SHMO, assisted by frailty-adjusted Medicare payments and member premiums. CONCLUSION: This high-low option strategy sought to offer the "right care at the right time" and may be a model for managed care organizations to serve aging and disabled beneficiaries under Medicare's new special needs plan option.

Advanced illness index: Predictive modeling to stratify elders using self-report data.

OBJECTIVES: Develop a prediction model to identify persons who have an increased risk of dying within the next 36 months, in order to focus additional resources and assessment in areas related to advanced care planning. DESIGN: Retrospective study with a 3-year observation period. SETTING: Integrated, not-for-profit managed care organization. PARTICIPANTS: Beneficiaries aged 65-105 responding to an annual survey (n = 4888). MEASUREMENTS: Survey instrument includes physical function, geriatric syndromes, health care utilization, special equipment use, self-care deficits, caregiving responsibilities, and general health problems. RESULTS: An 11-variable model changed the baseline chi2 from 315.71 (df = 1) to 742.511 (df = 11). The percent of subjects correctly classified was 74.3% and the negative predictive value was 92.2%. CONCLUSION: Advanced Illness Index (AII) model is stable. Characteristic variables used are not easily reversed: the 1997 cohort classified as at-risk consistently remained at risk or died in the subsequent years (1998, 92%; and 1999, 96%) and 92% of those not at-risk survived the next 36 months. Persons at high risk should at a minimum be made aware of the types of integrated home and community-based services available to them should it be needed. They also should be targeted for elicitation of treatment preferences, values, designation of health care proxy, planning, and advanced care directives.

Usefulness of a single item in a mail survey to identify persons with possible dementia: a new strategy for finding high-risk elders.

The objective of this study was to examine the characteristics of elderly persons who responded positively to a question about "severe memory problems" on a mailed health questionnaire yet were missed by the existing health risk algorithm to identify vulnerable elderly persons. A total of 324,471 respondents aged 65 and older completed a primary care health status questionnaire that gathered clinical information to quickly identify members with functional impairment, multiple chronic diseases, and higher medical care needs. The respondents were part of a large, integrated, not-for-profit managed care organization that implemented a model of care for elders using a uniform risk identification method across eight regions. Respondents with severe memory problems were compared to general respondents by morbidity, geriatric syndromes, functional impairments, service utilization, sensory impairments, sociodemographic characteristics, and activities of daily living. Of the respondents, 13,902 persons (4.3%) reported severe memory problems; the existing health risk algorithm missed 47.1% of these. When severe memory problems were included in the risk algorithm, identification increased from 11% to 13%, and risk prevalence by age groups ranged from 4.4% to 40.5%; one third had severe memory problems, a finding that was fairly consistent within age groups (28.4% to 36.5%). A question about severe memory problems should be incorporated into population risk-identification techniques. While false-negative rates are unknown, the false-positive rate of a self-report mail survey appears to be minimal. Persons reporting severe memory problems clearly have multiple comorbidities, higher prevalence of geriatric syndromes, and greater functional and sensory impairments.

Utilization and costs of home-based and community-based care within a social HMO: trends over an 18-year period.

PURPOSE: Our objective was to describe the utilization and costs of services from 1985 to 2002 of a Social Health Maintenance Organization (SHMO) demonstration project providing a benefit for home-based and community-based as well as short-term institutional (HCB) care at Kaiser Permanente Northwest (KPNW), serving the Portland, Oregon area. The HCB care benefit was offered by KPNW as a supplement to Medicare's acute care medical benefits, which KPNW provides in an HMO model. KPNW receives a monthly per capita payment from Medicare to provide medical benefits, and Medicare beneficiaries who choose to join pay a supplemental premium that covers prescription drugs, HCB care benefits, and other services. A HCB care benefit of up to 12,000 dollars per year in services was available to SHMO members meeting requirement for nursing home certification (NHC). METHODS: We used aggregate data to track temporal changes in the period 1985 to 2002 on member eligibility, enrollment in HCB care plans, age, service utilization and co-payments. Trends in the overall costs and financing of the HCB care benefit were extracted from quarterly reports, management data, and finance data. RESULTS: During the time period, 14,815 members enrolled in the SHMO and membership averaged 4,531. The proportion of SHMO members aged 85 or older grew from 12 to 25%; proportion meeting requirements for NHC rose from 4 to 27%; and proportion with HCB care plans rose from 4 to 18%. Costs for the HCB care benefit rose from 21 dollars per SHMO member per month in 1985 to 95 dollars in 2002. The HCB care costs were equivalent to 12% to 16% of Medicare reimbursement. The HCB program costs were covered by member premiums (which rose from 49 dollars to 180 dollars) and co-payments from members with care plans. Over the 18-year period, spending shifted from nursing homes to a range of community services, e.g. personal care, homemaking, member reimbursement, lifeline, equipment, transportation, shift care, home nursing, adult day care, respite care, and dentures. Rising costs per month per SHMO member reflected increasing HCB eligibility rather than costs per member with HCB care, which actually fell from 6,164 dollars in 1989 to 4,328 dollars in 2002. Care management accounted for about one-quarter of community care costs since 1992. CONCLUSIONS: The Kaiser Permanente Northwest SHMO served an increasingly aged and disabled membership by reducing costs per HCB member care plan and shifting utilization to a broad range of community care services. Supported by a disability-based Medicare payment formula and by SHMO beneficiaries willing to pay increasing premiums, KPNW has been able to offer comprehensive community care. The model could be replicated by other HMOs with the support of favorable federal policies.

Community-based care and risk of nursing home placement.

OBJECTIVE: To test the substitution hypothesis, that community-based care reduces the probability of institutional placement for at-risk elderly. RESEARCH DESIGN: The closure of the Social Health Maintenance Organization (Social HMO) at HealthPartners (HP) in Minnesota in 1994 and the continuation of the Social HMO at Kaiser Permanente Northwest (KPNW) in Oregon/Washington comprised a "natural experiment." Using multinomial logistic regression analyses, we followed cohorts of Social HMO enrollees for up to 5 years, 1995 to 1999. To adjust for site effects and secular trends, we also followed age- and gender-matched Medicare-Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) cohorts, enrolled in the same HMOs but not in the Social HMOs. SUBJECTS: All enrollees in the Social HMO for at least 4 months in 1993 and an age-gender matched sample of Medicare-TEFRA enrollees. To be included, individuals had to be alive and have a period out of an institution after January 1, 1995 (total n = 18,143). MEASURES: The primary data sources were the electronic databases at HP and KPNW. The main outcomes were long-term nursing home placement (90+ days) or mortality. Covariates were age, gender, a comorbidity index, and geographic site effect. RESULTS: Adjusting for variations in the 2 sites, we found no difference in probability of mortality between the 2 cohorts, but approximately a 40% increase in long-term institutional placement associated with the termination of the Social HMO at HealthPartners (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.79). CONCLUSIONS: The Social HMO appears to help at-risk elderly postpone long-term nursing home placement.

Integrating prenatal-postnatal smoking interventions into usual care in a health maintenance organization.

Consistent with the increasing national emphasis on providing health promotion in clinical care settings, Stop Smoking for OuR Kids (STORK), a research-derived, prenatal-postnatal smoking cessation intervention, was implemented throughout prenatal clinics, inpatient postpartum services, and pediatric clinics of Kaiser Permanente Northwest. Process data collected during the project rollout and maintenance to monitor the clinical practices of clinicians and staff members, patient responses to the intervention, and penetration of the intervention into the health maintenance organization priority population of prenatal smokers high-lighted barriers to intervention delivery. These barriers fell into three categories related to the smoking intervention design, clinicians and staff members, and the organization. By monitoring the intervention implementation process, such problems were identified early. This allowed for implementing strategies to overcome many of these barriers and to assess their effectiveness. Keys to implementation success included simplifying the intervention activities, considering stakeholder needs, and providing tangible organizational resources and goals.

Depression, functional status, treatment for psychiatric problems, and the health-related practices of elderly HMO members.

PURPOSE: To study relationships between depression, functional limitations, psychiatric treatment, and the health-related practices of elderly individuals. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, observational study based on survey data (response rate = 90%) analyzed using multiple linear and logistic regression models. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Northwest, a large nonprofit HMO. SUBJECTS: Medicare members (4615) aged 65-103 years who responded to a health status survey. MEASURES: Depression, health and functional status, frequency of alcohol consumption, smoking status, advance medical directive completion, influenza or pneumonia vaccinations, mammograms, recent psychiatric treatment, and attempts to lose weight or increase exercise. RESULTS: Self-reported depression was related to a greater risk of smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 1.54). Health-related functional limitations were related to fewer attempts to change health behaviors and less preventive service use (significant ORs ranged from 0.84 to 0.94). Minority group membership and Supplemental Security Income were negatively associated with better health practices and with completing advance medical directives (ORs 0.41 and 0.79, respectively). Falls in the prior year, more prescription medications, and psychiatric treatment were positively associated with better health practices (significant ORs ranged from 1.12 to 1.88). CONCLUSIONS: Depression and smoking are associated among elderly individuals, as are psychiatric treatment and attempts to lose weight. Those with functional limitations, minority status, or Supplemental Security Income use fewer preventive services; the latter two groups are less likely to complete advance medical directives. Older adults with these characteristics might need assistance in improving health-related practices.

A comparison of two methods for identifying frail Medicare-aged persons.

This article compares the efficacy of two screening methods to identify frail Medicare-aged persons using self-report questionnaire data: a clinical judgment method developed by nurse and social worker professionals in a community-based long-term care department and an empirical research method previously developed by the Center for Health Research using computer formulas and stepwise logistic regression coefficients. A sub-aim was to see whether the empirical method proved robust over time by measuring aggregate utilization and mortality in frail and nonfrail cohorts, which would increase the interest of physicians, managed care organizations, and other agencies providing service to Medicare beneficiaries.