Forecasting Strong Subsequent Earthquakes in Greece with the Machine Learning Algorithm NESTORE.

Aftershocks of earthquakes can destroy many urban infrastructures and exacerbate the damage already inflicted upon weak structures. Therefore, it is important to have a method to forecast the probability of occurrence of stronger earthquakes in order to mitigate their effects. In this work, we applied the NESTORE machine learning approach to Greek seismicity from 1995 to 2022 to forecast the probability of a strong aftershock. Depending on the magnitude difference between the mainshock and the strongest aftershock, NESTORE classifies clusters into two types, Type A and Type B. Type A clusters are the most dangerous clusters, characterized by a smaller difference. The algorithm requires region-dependent training as input and evaluates performance on an independent test set. In our tests, we obtained the best results 6 h after the mainshock, as we correctly forecasted 92% of clusters corresponding to 100% of Type A clusters and more than 90% of Type B clusters. These results were also obtained thanks to an accurate analysis of cluster detection in a large part of Greece. The successful overall results show that the algorithm can be applied in this area. The approach is particularly attractive for seismic risk mitigation due to the short time required for forecasting.

Near-Real-Time Strong Motion Acquisition at National Scale and Automatic Analysis.

A strong motion monitoring network records data that provide an excellent way to study how source, path, and site effects influence the ground motion, specifically in the near-source area. Such data are essential for updating seismic hazard maps and consequently building codes and earthquake-resistant design. This paper aims to present the Italian Strong Motion Network (RAN), describing its current status, employment, and further developments. It has 648 stations and is the result of a fruitful co-operation between the Italian government, regions, and local authorities. In fact, the network can be divided into three sub-networks: the Friuli Venezia Giulia Accelerometric Network, the Irpinia Seismic Network, and all the other stations. The Antelope software automatically collects, processes, and archives data in the data acquisition centre in Rome (Italy). The efficiency of the network on a daily basis is today more than 97%. The automatic and fast procedures that run in Antelope for the real-time strong motion data analysis are continuously improved at the University of Trieste: a large set of strong motion parameters and correspondent Ground Motion Prediction Equations allow ground shaking intensity maps to be provided for moderate to strong earthquakes occurring within the Italian territory. These maps and strong motion parameters are included in automatic reports generated for civil protection purposes.