Association between land use, land cover, plant genera, and pollinator abundance in mixed-use landscapes.

Pollinators are threatened by land-use and land-cover changes, with the magnitude of the threat depending on the pollinating taxa, land-use type and intensity, the amount of natural habitat remaining, and the ecosystem considered. This study aims to determine the effect of land use (protected areas, plantations, pastures), land cover (percentage of forest and open areas within buffers of different sizes), and plant genera on the relative abundance of nectivorous birds (honeyeaters), bees (native and introduced), and beetles in the mixed-use landscape of the Tasman Peninsula (Tasmania, Australia) using mixed-effect models. We found the predictor selected (through model selection based on R2) and the effect of the predictors varied depending on the pollinating taxa. The land-use predictors were selected for only the honeyeater abundance model with protected areas and plantations having substantive positive effects. Land-cover predictors were selected for the honeyeater and native bee abundance models with open land cover within 1500 m and 250 m buffers having substantive negative and positive effects on honeyeaters and native bees respectively. Bees and beetles were observed on 24 plant genera of which only native plants (and not invasive/naturalised) were positively associated with pollinating insects. Pultenaea and Leucopogon were positively associated with native bees while Leucopogon, Lissanthe, Pimelea, and Pomaderris were positively associated with introduced bees. Leptospermum was the only plant genus positively associated with beetles. Our results highlight that one size does not fit all-that is pollinator responses to different landscape characteristics vary, emphasising the importance of considering multiple habitat factors to manage and support different pollinator taxa.

Resolving when (and where) the Thylacine went extinct.

Like the Dodo and Passenger Pigeon before it, the predatory marsupial Thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), or 'Tasmanian tiger', has become an iconic symbol of anthropogenic extinction. The last captive animal died in 1936, but even today reports of the Thylacine's possible ongoing survival in remote regions of Tasmania are newsworthy and capture the public's imagination. Extirpated from mainland Australia in the mid-Holocene, the island of Tasmania became the species' final stronghold. Following European settlement in the 1800s, the Thylacine was relentlessly persecuted and pushed to the margins of its range, although many sightings were reported thereafter-even well beyond the 1930s. To gain a new depth of insight into the extinction of the Thylacine, we assembled an exhaustive database of 1237 observational records from Tasmania (from 1910 onwards), quantified their uncertainty, and charted the patterns these revealed. We also developed a new method to visualize the species' 20th-century spatio-temporal dynamics, to map potential post-bounty refugia and pinpoint the most-likely location of the final persisting subpopulation. A direct reading of the high-quality records (confirmed kills and captures, in combination with sightings by past Thylacine hunters and trappers, wildlife professionals and experienced bushmen) implies a most-likely extinction date within four decades following the last capture (i.e., 1940s to 1970s). However, uncertainty modelling of the entire sighting record, where each observation is assigned a probability and the whole dataset is then subject to a sensitivity analysis, suggests that extinction might have been as recent as the late 1980s to early 2000s, with a small chance of persistence in the remote south-western wilderness areas. Beyond the intrinsically fascinating problem of reconstructing the final fate of the Thylacine, the new spatio-temporal mapping of extirpation developed herein would also be useful for conservation prioritization and search efforts for other rare taxa of uncertain status.

Pesticides reduce tropical amphibian and reptile diversity in agricultural landscapes in Indonesia.

Pesticide use on tropical crops has increased substantially in recent decades, posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services. Amphibians and reptiles are common in tropical agricultural landscapes, but few field studies measure pesticide impacts on these taxa. Here we combine 1-year of correlative data with an experimental field approach from Indonesia. We show that while pesticide application cannot predict amphibian or reptile diversity patterns in cocoa plantations, our experimental exposure to herbicides and insecticides in vegetable gardens eliminated amphibians, whereas reptiles were less impacted by insecticide and not affected by herbicide exposure. The pesticide-driven loss of a common amphibian species known to be a pest-control agent (mainly invertebrate predation) suggests a strong indirect negative effect of pesticides on this service. We recommend landscape-based Integrated Pest Management and additional ecotoxicological studies on amphibians and reptiles to underpin a regulatory framework and to assure recognition and protection of their ecosystem services.

Dominant carnivore loss benefits native avian and invasive mammalian scavengers.

Scavenging by large carnivores is integral for ecosystem functioning by limiting the build-up of carrion and facilitating widespread energy flows. However, top carnivores have declined across the world, triggering trophic shifts within ecosystems. Here, we compare findings from previous work on predator decline against areas with recent native mammalian carnivore loss. Specifically, we investigate top-down control on utilization of experimentally placed carcasses by two mesoscavengers-the invasive feral cat and native forest raven. Ravens profited most from carnivore loss, scavenging for five times longer in the absence of native mammalian carnivores. Cats scavenged on half of all carcasses in the region without dominant native carnivores. This was eight times more than in areas where other carnivores were at high densities. All carcasses persisted longer than the three-week monitoring period in the absence of native mammalian carnivores, while in areas with high carnivore abundance, all carcasses were fully consumed. Our results reveal that top-carnivore loss amplifies impacts associated with carnivore decline-increased carcass persistence and carrion access for smaller scavengers. This suggests that even at low densities, native mammalian carnivores can fulfil their ecological functions, demonstrating the significance of global carnivore conservation and supporting management approaches, such as trophic rewilding.

Signs of Rumpwear in the Common Ringtail Possum, Pseudocheirus peregrinus.

We report the physical characteristics of rumpwear in the Australian common ringtail possum, Pseudocheirus peregrinus. Rumpwear presents as varying grades of hair breakage and dermatitis on the lumbosacral region. This condition has been reported in Trichosurus spp. (brushtail possums) previously, but never in P. peregrinus. The etiology remains poorly understood.

Societal extinction of species.

The ongoing global biodiversity crisis not only involves biological extinctions, but also the loss of experience and the gradual fading of cultural knowledge and collective memory of species. We refer to this phenomenon as 'societal extinction of species' and apply it to both extinct and extant taxa. We describe the underlying concepts as well as the mechanisms and factors that affect this process, discuss its main implications, and identify mitigation measures. Societal extinction is cognitively intractable, but it is tied to biological extinction and thus has important consequences for conservation policy and management. It affects societal perceptions of the severity of anthropogenic impacts and of true extinction rates, erodes societal support for conservation efforts, and causes the loss of cultural heritage.

Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation.

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

Spatial pattern analysis of line-segment data in ecology.

The spatial analysis of linear features (lines and curves) is a challenging and rarely attempted problem in ecology. Existing methods are typically expressed in abstract mathematical formalism, making it difficult to assess their relevance and transferability into an ecological setting. We introduce a set of concrete and accessible methods to analyze the spatial patterning of line-segment data. The methods include Monte Carlo techniques based on a new generalization of Ripley's K -function and a class of line-segment processes that can be used to specify parametric models: parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood and models compared using information-theoretic principles. We apply the new methods to fallen tree (dead log) data collected from two 1-ha Australian tall eucalypt forest plots. Our results show that the spatial pattern of the fallen logs is best explained by plot-level spatial heterogeneity in combination with a slope-dependent nonuniform distribution of fallen-log orientations. These methods are of a general nature and are applicable to any line-segment data. In the context of forest ecology, the integration of fallen logs as linear structural features in a landscape with the point locations of living trees, and a quantification of their interactions, can yield new insights into the functional and structural role of tree fall in forest communities and their enduring post-mortem ecological legacy as spatially distributed decomposing logs.

Characterizing the spatio-temporal threats, conservation hotspots and conservation gaps for the most extinction-prone bird family (Aves: Rallidae).

With thousands of vertebrate species now threatened with extinction, there is an urgent need to understand and mitigate the causes of wildlife collapse. Rails (Aves: Rallidae), being the most extinction-prone bird family globally, and with one-third of extant rail species now threatened or near threatened, are an emphatic case in point. Here, we undertook a global synthesis of the temporal and spatial threat patterns for Rallidae and determined conservation priorities and gaps. We found two key pathways in the threat pattern for rails. One follows the same trajectory as extinct rails, where island endemic and flightless rails are most threatened, mainly due to invasive predators. The second, created by the diversification of anthropogenic activities, involves continental rails, threatened mainly by agriculture, natural system modifications, and residential and commercial development. Indonesia, the USA, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Cuba were the priority countries identified by our framework incorporating species' uniqueness and the level of endangerment, but also among the countries that lack conservation actions the most. Future efforts should predominantly target improvements in ecosystem protection and management, as well as ongoing research and monitoring. Forecasting the impacts of climate change on island endemic rails will be particularly valuable to protect rails.

The Patterns and Causes of Dermatitis in Terrestrial and Semi-Aquatic Mammalian Wildlife.

Causative disease and stress agents which manifest as dermatitis in mammals have varying effects on individual animals, from benign irritation and inflammation, to causing morbidity and even mortality. Bacteria, viruses and ectoparasites are all potential causes of dermatitis, and it can be exacerbated by various environmental, genetic and social factors. Furthermore, it is uncertain whether dermatitis is more likely to manifest in already-vulnerable wildlife species. Here, we systematically review the literature for reports of dermatitis in terrestrial and semi-aquatic wild mammalian species, with the goal of determining the biogeographical scale of dermatitis reports, the causes of dermatitis, and whether manifestation of dermatitis is reported more commonly in certain wildlife species or their captivity status (i.e., free-living, in captivity or in a laboratory). We reveal biases in the reporting of dermatitis by a biogeographic realm, with 55% of cases reported in the Nearctic, and towards particular orders of mammals, namely Artiodactyla and Carnivora. Overall, free-living wildlife is almost twice as likely to be reported as having dermatitis than individuals in captivity and six times more likely than individuals in laboratories, which we interpret as owing to exposure to a broader spectrum of parasites in free-ranging individuals, and potential reporting bias in captive individuals. Notably, dermatitis was reported in 23 threatened species, with some species more likely than others to be reported exhibiting clinical signs of dermatitis resulting from underlying health problems. We also find that threatened species are more likely to be reported as having dermatitis in captivity, particularly outside of their endemic home range. This review highlights diverse patterns of dermatological disease causes in captive and free-ranging wildlife, conditions under which they are more likely to be documented, and the need for cross-disciplinary research to ascertain (and so better manage) the varied causes.

Parsimonious model selection using information theory: a modified selection rule.

Information-theoretic approaches to model selection, such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and cross validation, provide a rigorous framework to select among candidate hypotheses in ecology, yet the persistent concern of overfitting undermines the interpretation of inferred processes. A common misconception is that overfitting is due to the choice of criterion or model score, despite research demonstrating that selection uncertainty associated with score estimation is the predominant influence. Here we introduce a novel selection rule that identifies a parsimonious model by directly accounting for estimation uncertainty, while still retaining an information-theoretic interpretation. The new rule, which is a modification of the existing one-standard-error rule, mitigates overfitting and reduces the likelihood that spurious effects will be included in the selected model, thereby improving its inferential properties. We present the rule and illustrative examples in the context of maximum-likelihood estimation and Kullback-Leibler discrepancy, although the rule is applicable in a more general setting, including Bayesian model selection and other types of discrepancy.

Roadkill islands: Carnivore extinction shifts seasonal use of roadside carrion by generalist avian scavenger.

Global road networks facilitate habitat modification and are integral to human expansion. Many animals, particularly scavengers, use roads as they provide a reliable source of food, such as carrion left after vehicle collisions. Tasmania is often cited as the 'roadkill capital of Australia', with the isolated offshore islands in the Bass Strait experiencing similar, if not higher, levels of roadkill. However, native mammalian predators on the islands are extirpated, meaning the remaining scavengers are likely to experience lower interference competition. In this study, we used a naturally occurring experiment to examine how the loss of mammalian carnivores within a community impacts roadside foraging behaviour by avian scavengers. We monitored the locations of roadkill and forest ravens Corvus tasmanicus, an abundant scavenger species, on eight road transects across the Tasmanian mainland (high scavenging competition) and the Bass Strait islands (low scavenging competition). We represented raven observations as one-dimensional point patterns, using hierarchical Bayesian models to investigate the dependence of raven spatial intensity on habitat, season, distance to roadkill and route location. We found that roadkill carcasses were a strong predictor of raven presence along road networks. The effect of roadkill was amplified on roads on the Bass Strait islands, where roadside carrion was a predictor of raven presence across the entire year. In contrast, ravens were more often associated with roadkill on Tasmanian mainland roads in the autumn, when other resources were low. This suggests that in the absence of competing mammalian scavengers, ravens choose to feed on roadside carrion throughout the year, even in seasons when other resources are available. This lack of competition could be disproportionately benefiting forest ravens, leading to augmented raven populations and changes to the vertebrate community structure. Our study provides evidence that scavengers modify their behaviour in response to reduced scavenger species diversity, potentially triggering trophic shifts and highlighting the importance of conserving or reintroducing carnivores within ecosystems.

Accidents alter animal fitness landscapes.

Animals alter their habitat use in response to the energetic demands of movement ('energy landscapes') and the risk of predation ('the landscape of fear'). Recent research suggests that animals also select habitats and move in ways that minimise their chance of temporarily losing control of movement and thereby suffering slips, falls, collisions or other accidents, particularly when the consequences are likely to be severe (resulting in injury or death). We propose that animals respond to the costs of an 'accident landscape' in conjunction with predation risk and energetic costs when deciding when, where, and how to move in their daily lives. We develop a novel theoretical framework describing how features of physical landscapes interact with animal size, morphology, and behaviour to affect the risk and severity of accidents, and predict how accident risk might interact with predation risk and energetic costs to dictate movement decisions across the physical landscape. Future research should focus on testing the hypotheses presented here for different real-world systems to gain insight into the relative importance of theorised effects in the field.

Quantifying 25 years of disease-caused declines in Tasmanian devil populations: host density drives spatial pathogen spread.

Infectious diseases are strong drivers of wildlife population dynamics, however, empirical analyses from the early stages of pathogen emergence are rare. Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), discovered in 1996, provides the opportunity to study an epizootic from its inception. We use a pattern-oriented diffusion simulation to model the spatial spread of DFTD across the species' range and quantify population effects by jointly modelling multiple streams of data spanning 35 years. We estimate the wild devil population peaked at 53 000 in 1996, less than half of previous estimates. DFTD spread rapidly through high-density areas, with spread velocity slowing in areas of low host densities. By 2020, DFTD occupied >90% of the species' range, causing 82% declines in local densities and reducing the total population to 16 900. Encouragingly, our model forecasts the population decline should level-off within the next decade, supporting conservation management focused on facilitating evolution of resistance and tolerance.

Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming.

The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island-endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea-level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species' future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range-wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%-87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%-97% and declines of 27%-99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands' status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.

Urbanisation reduces the abundance and diversity of airborne microbes - but what does that mean for our health? A systematic review.

Over half of people live in cities and while urban environments offer myriad social, cultural and economic benefits, they alter the microbial communities to which people are exposed: with potentially important but underexplored health impacts. In particular, higher rates of asthma and allergies in urban areas have been linked to urban-altered microbial communities - including aerial microbial communities. To date, however, there has been no synthesis of the disparate literature on the impacts of urbanisation on aerial microbial communities, making it difficult to ascertain potential health impacts. We fill this knowledge gap by systematically examining studies that compare the characteristics (e.g. microbial abundance/diversity) and/or health effects of airborne fungal and bacterial communities (hereafter referred to as 'aerobiomes') across urban and rural locations. We included 19 studies, with 31 distinct urban-rural comparisons, in our analysis. We found that rural aerobiomes more often have a greater abundance of microbes (57% of studies). Aerobiome diversity was under-reported but when comparisons were made, rural aerobiome diversity was often higher (67%). Only two studies experimentally examined the impact of urban and rural aerobiomes on human health outcomes; both found rural aerobiomes shifted immune function away from allergic (Th2-type) responses. Overall, we conclude that significant gaps remain in our understanding of how urbanisation impacts aerobiomes and the health implications of those changes. We highlight the need to standardise methods and make aerobiome data open access to facilitate cross-study comparisons. Further mechanistic studies are urgently needed to examine the impact of aerobiome composition on immune function to demonstrate how urban-driven changes to the aerobiome impact human health - ultimately facilitating the development of healthier cities.

Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change.

Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.

iEcology: Harnessing Large Online Resources to Generate Ecological Insights.

Digital data are accumulating at unprecedented rates. These contain a lot of information about the natural world, some of which can be used to answer key ecological questions. Here, we introduce iEcology (i.e., internet ecology), an emerging research approach that uses diverse online data sources and methods to generate insights about species distribution over space and time, interactions and dynamics of organisms and their environment, and anthropogenic impacts. We review iEcology data sources and methods, and provide examples of potential research applications. We also outline approaches to reduce potential biases and improve reliability and applicability. As technologies and expertise improve, and costs diminish, iEcology will become an increasingly important means to gain novel insights into the natural world.

Roughing it: terrain is crucial in identifying novel translocation sites for the vulnerable brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata).

Translocations-the movement of species from one place to another-are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires. The recent Australian mega-fires burnt almost 40% of the habitat of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata), a threatened species whose distribution is already restricted, primarily due to predation by invasive species. This chronic threat of over-predation, coupled with the possible extinction of the genetically distinct southern population (approx. 40 individuals in the wild), makes this species a candidate for a conservation translocation. Here, we use species distribution models to identify translocation sites for the brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Our models exhibited high predictive accuracy, and show that terrain roughness, a surrogate for predator refugia, is the most important variable. Tasmania, which currently has no rock-wallabies, showed high suitability and is fox-free, making it a promising candidate site. We outline our argument for the trial translocation of rock-wallaby to Maria Island, located off Tasmania's eastern coast. This research offers a transparent assessment of the translocation potential of a threatened species, which can be adapted to other taxa and systems.