A Report Card on Prevention Efforts of COVID-19 Deaths in US.

COVID-19 (otherwise known as coronavirus disease 2019) is a life-threatening pandemic that has been combatted in various ways by the government, public health officials, and health care providers. These interventions have been met with varying levels of success. Ultimately, we question if the preventive efforts have reduced COVID-19 deaths in the United States. To address this question, we analyze data pertaining to COVID-19 deaths drawn from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). For this purpose, we employ incidence rate restricted Poisson (IRRP) as an underlying analysis methodology and evaluate all preventive efforts utilized to attempt to reduce COVID-19 deaths. Interpretations of analytic results and graphical visualizations are used to emphasize our various findings. Much needed modifications of the public health policies with respect to dealing with any future pandemics are compiled, critically assessed, and discussed.

Competency assessment of an undergraduate program using a third-party, objective pre-post examination.

BACKGROUND: Assessing competencies or program learning outcomes in educational programs is often a leadership challenge. This case study reports medical education program's efforts to document undergraduate competency attainment using a pre-post, third-party, objective testing service that allows for inter-university comparison, a testing service that is being adopted by some certification and accrediting bodies. METHODS: Students completed a pre-test after program acceptance and a post-test at the end of the last didactic semester (1.5 years later) just prior to their required internships. Scores and subscores were evaluated using t-tests (Holm-adjusted p-values). MANOVA models of sub-competency difference scores were also evaluated. RESULTS: Results indicate competency improvement for each of the 12 areas based on the n = 55 student sample, (p < .001 for all scores). These improvements were independent of ethnicity, age, gender, and grades. The average student improved by 12.85 points (95% CI of 10.52 to 15.18) with the largest improvements in strategic planning and leadership competency areas (21.30 and 18.33 percentage points, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The third-party pre-post has some face validity given that student performance improved after completing a related curriculum as would be expected. Congruent with earlier studies, we find that repeated testing helps document competency attainment and that a single method for assessment is insufficient. We further document limitations of this 3d-party exam.

Models for Heart Failure Admissions and Admission Rates, 2016 through 2018.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 6.5 to 6.9 million individuals in the United States have heart failure, and the disease costs approximately $43.6 billion in 2020. This research provides geographical incidence and cost models of this disease in the U.S. and explanatory models to account for hospitals' number of heart failure DRGs using technical, workload, financial, geographical, and time-related variables. METHODS: The number of diagnoses is forecast using regression (constrained and unconstrained) and ensemble (random forests, extra trees regressor, gradient boosting, and bagging) techniques at the hospital unit of analysis. Descriptive maps of heart failure diagnostic-related groups (DRGs) depict areas of high incidence. State- and county-level spatial and non-spatial regression models of heart failure admission rates are performed. Expenditure forecasts are estimated. RESULTS: The incidence of heart failure has increased over time with the highest intensities in the East and center of the country; however, several Northern states have seen large increases since 2016. The best predictive model for the number of diagnoses (hospital unit of analysis) was an extremely randomized tree ensemble (predictive R2 = 0.86). The important variables in this model included workload metrics and hospital type. State-level spatial lag models using first-order Queen criteria were best at estimating heart failure admission rates (R2 = 0.816). At the county level, OLS was preferred over any GIS model based on Moran's I and resultant R2; however, none of the traditional models performed well (R2 = 0.169 for the OLS). Gradient-boosted tree models predicted 36% of the total sum of squares; the most important factors were facility workload, mean cash on hand of the hospitals in the county, and mean equity of those hospitals. Online interactive maps at the state and county levels are provided. CONCLUSIONS: Heart failure and associated expenditures are increasing. Costs of DRGs in the study increased $61 billion from 2016 through 2018. The increase in the more expensive DRG 291 outpaced others with an associated increase of $92 billion. With the increase in demand and steady-state supply of cardiologists, the costs are likely to balloon over the next decade. Models such as the ones presented here are needed to inform healthcare leaders.

An Evaluation of Alternatives for Providing Care to Veterans.

In 2014, a whistleblower reported that many U.S. veterans died while waiting for care at the Phoenix VHA. Problems with veteran's care through 2018 reveal ongoing and systematic problem. In March 2018, the VA Inspector General identified critical deficiencies at the Washington, DC VA Medical Center including failures to track patient safety events accurately, ineffective sterile processing and more than 10 thousand open or pending prosthetic/sensory aid consults. The VHA clearly has problems with access and quality in a budget-constrained environment. In this policy analysis, four separate interventions that address the gap between the magnitude as well as the use of the VHA's fixed budget versus access and cost expectations are explored. These policy interventions include maintaining the status quo, returning to a "VHA-only" option, transitioning to a CMS central payer system and consolidating care under the DoD TRICARE insurance plans. An objective evaluation suggests that extending TRICARE to veterans during the phasing out the VHA's care responsibilities, while politically unpalatable, would likely provide the best of four possible solutions under various criterion weighting schemes. A central payer solution under the CMS would also be a viable consideration. Results suggest that TRICARE patient perceptions of quality are superior to VHA and non-VHA/non-DoD, that access provided by the TRICARE program is ranked second in terms of venue acceptance only to the CMS solution set based on primary provider acceptance and that the cost per beneficiary of a TRICARE solution ($6.5 K/beneficiary) is far better than a VHA-only solution ($14.0 K/beneficiary), the CMS central payer solution ($12.2 K/beneficiary), or the status quo (between $12.2 K and $14.0 K/beneficiary). The intent of this paper is to provoke thoughtful consideration of solutions for providing access to high-quality healthcare for veterans within or outside of the VHA.

Patient satisfaction as a function of in-house versus contract staffing models in Veterans Affairs community-based outpatient clinics.

As part of decision support for Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, this research evaluated patient satisfaction differences associated with contract versus Veterans Affairs (VA) staffing of community-based outpatient clinics (CBOCs). The research question was as follows: What differences exist between contract versus VA-staffed outpatient clinics in the areas of patient perceptions of access, continuity of care, courtesy, education and information, emotional support, overall coordination, visit coordination, and patient preferences? The quarterly Survey of Healthcare Experiences of Patients provided satisfaction data necessary for this study. Results of Bonferonni-corrected z-tests of proportions indicated that the VA-staffed CBOCs had statistically higher scores for continuity of care, education and information, emotional support, overall coordination, and patient preferences. No statistically significant difference emerged for patient perception of access, courtesy, and visit coordination. The lack of finding associated with visit coordination coupled with the statistically significant difference for overall coordination suggests that coordination for non-VA-staffed CBOCs erodes after the patient encounter. In toto, patients reported higher satisfaction with in-house staffing solutions versus contractor solutions. The authors recommend additional cost-utility research to identify which of the two models, VA-staffed or non-VA-staffed, best meets the needs of all stakeholders.

Evidence of greater health care needs among older veterans of the Vietnam War.

This study examined self-rated health, impairments in activities of daily living, and treatment for eight health conditions among Vietnam War-era veterans, comparing those who served in Vietnam with those who served elsewhere. Data were from the nationally representative 2001 National Survey of Veterans (N = 7,907; 3,923 veterans served in Vietnam). Age-stratified (<60 years versus > or =60 years) analyses included multivariate logistic regression. In adjusted analyses, among those <60 years of age, those who served in Vietnam had notably poorer self-rated health and higher stroke risk (odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.48-1.53); odds of most other conditions were lower. Among those > or =60 years of age, those who served in Vietnam had poorer self-rated health, higher cancer risk (odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.35), and more treatment for hypertension, lung conditions, stroke, and hearing loss. Results suggest greater resource use among older veterans who served in Vietnam. Clinicians and the Department of Veterans Affairs should especially note their substantially higher cancer risk.

Long-term effects of military service on mental health among veterans of the Vietnam War era.

Comparing outcomes of veterans who served in Vietnam and those who served elsewhere, we examined treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder, treatment of other mental health conditions, psychiatric treatment location, and six mental health well-being measures. The analytic sample consisted of nationally representative data from the 2001 National Survey of Veterans. Analyses included multivariate logistic regression that controlled for sociodemographic characteristics. Of Vietnam War-era veterans in the National Survey of Veterans (N = 7,914), 3,937 served in Vietnam and 3,977 served elsewhere. These veterans were stratified into < 60 years of age (N = 6,141) and > or = 60 years of age (N = 1,766). Veterans who served in Vietnam had notably poorer mental health than did those who served elsewhere. There were striking mental health differences between younger and older veterans; younger veterans had substantially worse measures of mental health. These results suggest greater resource needs among younger Vietnam War veterans. Clinicians and the Department of Veterans Affairs should focus on mental health services for younger veterans.