Macroeconomic impact of Ebola outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa and potential mitigation of GDP loss with prophylactic Ebola vaccination programs.

INTRODUCTION: Decisions about prevention of and response to Ebola outbreaks require an understanding of the macroeconomic implications of these interventions. Prophylactic vaccines hold promise to mitigate the negative economic impacts of infectious disease outbreaks. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between outbreak size and economic impact among countries with recorded Ebola outbreaks and to quantify the hypothetical benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination interventions in these outbreaks. METHODS: The synthetic control method was used to estimate the causal impacts of Ebola outbreaks on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of five countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have previously experienced Ebola outbreaks between 2000 and 2016, where no vaccines were deployed. Using illustrative assumptions about vaccine coverage, efficacy, and protective immunity, the potential economic benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination were estimated using the number of cases in an outbreak as a key indicator. RESULTS: The impact of Ebola outbreaks on the macroeconomy of the selected countries led to a decline in GDP of up to 36%, which was greatest in the third year after the onset of each outbreak and increased exponentially with the size of outbreak (i.e., number of reported cases). Over three years, the aggregate loss estimated for Sierra Leone from its 2014-2016 outbreak is estimated at 16.1 billion International$. Prophylactic vaccination could have prevented up to 89% of an outbreak's negative impact on GDP, reducing the outbreak's impact to as little as 1.6% of GDP lost. CONCLUSION: This study supports the case that macroeconomic returns are associated with prophylactic Ebola vaccination. Our findings support recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination as a core component of prevention and response measures for global health security.

Complementary Feeding Social and Behavior Change Communication for Fathers and Mothers Improves Children's Consumption of Fish and Eggs and Minimum Meal Frequency in Kaduna State, Nigeria.

Background: Fathers are key influencers of complementary feeding practices, but few studies in low- and middle-income countries have measured the effects of complementary feeding social and behavior change communication (SBCC) targeted at both fathers and mothers. Objectives: The aims of this study were to measure the effects of an SBCC intervention on children's dietary diversity (primary outcome) and other complementary feeding indicators, fathers' and mothers' complementary feeding knowledge, and fathers' support for complementary feeding (secondary outcomes). Methods: The 12-mo intervention in Kaduna State, Nigeria, engaged parents through community meetings, religious services, home visits from community health extension workers (CHEWs), mobile phone messages (fathers only), and mass media. Cross-sectional population-based surveys of cohabiting fathers and mothers with a child aged 6-23 mo were conducted, and regression models were used to compare results at baseline (n = 497) and endline (n = 495). Results: Children's minimum dietary diversity did not change from baseline to endline (62% to 65%, P = 0.441). Children's consumption of fish (36% to 44%, P = 0.012) and eggs (8% to 20%, P = 0.004) and minimum meal frequency (58% to 73%, P < 0.001) increased. Fathers' and mothers' knowledge of the timing of introduction of different foods and meal frequency improved. Fathers' support for child feeding by providing money for food increased (79% to 90%, P < 0.001). Fathers' and mothers' reported intervention exposure was low (11-26% across types of SBCC). Child feeding outcomes were not associated with fathers' exposure. Children's odds of both fish and egg consumption increased significantly with mothers' exposure to community meetings, religious services, home visits, and television spots, and children's odds of minimum meal frequency increased significantly with mothers' exposure to home visits. Conclusions: A multipronged SBCC intervention improved complementary feeding practices, fathers' and mothers' knowledge of complementary feeding, and fathers' support for complementary feeding, despite low levels of reported exposure, which may have been influenced by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disruptions. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT04835662.

Breastfeeding Interpersonal Communication, Mobile Phone Support, and Mass Media Messaging Increase Exclusive Breastfeeding at 6 and 24 Weeks Among Clients of Private Health Facilities in Lagos, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Although most health facilities in urban Nigeria are privately owned, interventions to promote optimal breastfeeding practices in private facilities have not previously been implemented. OBJECTIVES: We tested the impact of a breastfeeding promotion intervention on early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding among clients of private facilities in Lagos, Nigeria. METHODS: The intervention included training for health-care providers on the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative and breastfeeding counseling skills, provision of interpersonal communication and support to women at facilities and on WhatsApp, distribution of behavior change communication materials, and mobile phone and mass media messaging. We used logistic regression models adjusted for clustering to measure intervention impact in a cohort of women (n = 1200) at 10 intervention and 10 comparison facilities interviewed during their third trimester and at 6 and 24 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: The intervention significantly increased the percentage of infants who were exclusively breastfed at 6 weeks (83% intervention; 76% comparison; P = 0.02) and 24 weeks (66% intervention; 52% comparison; P < 0.001), but had no impact on early initiation of breastfeeding (35% intervention; 33% comparison; P = 0.65). Among infants who were exclusively breastfed at 6 weeks, the odds of continued exclusive breastfeeding at 24 weeks were higher in the intervention arm than in the comparison arm (OR, 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2-2.1). Infants had increased odds of being exclusively breastfed at 6 weeks if their mothers discussed breastfeeding with a private health provider (OR, 2.3; 95% CI: 1.5-3.4), received text or WhatsApp messages about breastfeeding (OR, 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0-2.7), or heard breastfeeding radio spots (OR, 4.2; 95% CI: 1.2-14.7). Infants had increased odds of exclusive breastfeeding at 24 weeks if their mothers participated in a WhatsApp breastfeeding support group (OR, 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0-2.2). CONCLUSIONS: A breastfeeding intervention in private health facilities in Lagos increased exclusive breastfeeding. Implementation of breastfeeding interventions in private facilities could extend the reach of breastfeeding promotion programs in urban Nigeria. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT04835051.

Animal Source Food Social and Behavior Change Communication Intervention Among Girinka Livestock Transfer Beneficiaries in Rwanda: A Cluster Randomized Evaluation.

Animal source foods (ASFs), including cow's milk, contain essential nutrients and contribute to a healthy diet, but frequency of intake is low among children in low- and middle-income countries. We hypothesized that an ASF social and behavior change communication (SBCC) intervention implemented by community health workers (CHWs) would increase child milk consumption and dietary diversity in households that received a cow from the Government of Rwanda's Girinka livestock transfer program. We tested the 9-month SBCC intervention among children aged 12-29 months at baseline in administrative cells randomly assigned to the intervention or control. Most mothers in the intervention group were exposed to CHWs' home visits (90.7%) or community-level activities (82.8%). At endline, more mothers in the intervention group compared with the control group knew that cow's milk was an ASF (90.1% vs. 81.7%, P=.03) and could be introduced to children at 12 months (41.7% vs. 18.7%, P<.001). More mothers in the intervention group compared with the control group knew they should feed their children ASFs (76.2% vs. 62.1%, P=.01) and give them 1 cup of cow's milk per day (20.6% vs. 7.8%, P<.001). Children's consumption of fresh cow's milk 2 or more times per week increased in the intervention group, although not significantly (8.0 percentage points, P=.17); minimum dietary diversity was unchanged. Children in the intervention group had increased odds of consuming cow's milk 2 or more times per week if their mothers recalled hearing that children should drink 1 cup of cow's milk per day during a CHW's home visit [odds ratio (OR) 2.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.1, 3.9)] or a community activity [OR 2.0, 95% CI (1.2, 3.5)]. Approximately half of the children had no milk during the past week because their households produced too little or sold what was produced. In poor households receiving a livestock transfer, strategies to further tailor SBCC and increase cow's milk production may be needed to achieve larger increases in children's frequency of milk consumption.