Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity (ENDIA) longitudinal prospective pregnancy to childhood cohort study of Australian children at risk of type 1 diabetes: parental demographics and birth information.

INTRODUCTION: The Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity (ENDIA) Study is an ongoing Australian prospective cohort study investigating how modifiable prenatal and early-life exposures drive the development of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes (T1D) in children. In this profile, we describe the cohort's parental demographics, maternal and neonatal outcomes and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotypes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Inclusion criteria were an unborn child, or infant aged less than 6 months, with a first-degree relative (FDR) with T1D. The primary outcome was persistent islet autoimmunity, with children followed until a T1D diagnosis or 10 years of age. Demographic data were collected at enrollment. Lifestyle, clinical and anthropometric data were collected at each visit during pregnancy and clinical pregnancy and birth data were verified against medical case notes. Data were compared between mothers with and without T1D. HLA genotyping was performed on the ENDIA child and all available FDRs. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised 1473 infants born to 1214 gestational mothers across 1453 pregnancies, with 80% enrolled during pregnancy. The distribution of familial T1D probands was 62% maternal, 28% paternal and 11% sibling. The frequency of high-risk HLA genotypes was highest in T1D probands, followed by ENDIA infants, and lowest among unaffected family members. Mothers with T1D had higher rates of pregnancy complications and perinatal intervention, and larger babies of shorter gestation. Parent demographics were comparable to the Australian population for age, parity and obesity. A greater percentage of ENDIA parents were Australian born, lived in a major city and had higher socioeconomic advantage and education. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive profile provides the context for understanding ENDIA's scope, methodology, unique strengths and limitations. Now fully recruited, ENDIA will provide unique insights into the roles of early-life factors in the development of islet autoimmunity and T1D in the Australian environment. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12613000794707.

Sanctioned illegal high tackles significantly increase concussion risk to both tacklers and ball carriers in elite men's Rugby Union.

Objectives: Tackles making contact above the sternum increase concussion and head injury assessment (HIA) risk in Rugby Union. The sport has introduced harsher sanctions to change tackler behaviours to reduce this risk. This increased high tackle sanction numbers, though it is unknown whether sanction severity is associated with injury risk. Methods: The sanction decision made by match officials for tackles resulting in 157 HIA1 removals, of which 91 were confirmed concussions, was evaluated. The propensity of sanction types, ranging from no foul play to red card, was compared after calculating concussion and HIA1 numbers per 1000 tackles of each sanction, using total tackle number of each sanction type from one season of two elite professional competitions. Results: HIA1 removal and concussion risk increased as sanction severity increased. Red-carded tackles were 271.5 (95% CI 143.8 to 512.6) times more likely to result in concussions than legal tackles. Tacklers and ball carriers were more likely to experience concussions from sanctioned high tackles, with tackler risk 28.5 (95% CI 13.5 to 59.9) times higher for sanctioned high tackles compared with legal tackles, and ball carrier risk elevated 133.7-fold (95% CI 65.5 to 272.8) after sanctioned high tackles. Conclusion: Sanctioned high tackles significantly increase concussion and HIA1 risk to both tacklers and ball carriers. Current decision-making frameworks that guide sanction decisions do identify tackle behaviours that elevate clinical risk. Both tacklers and ball carriers would be less likely to experience concussions and head injuries if the frequency of illegal high tackles is decreased.

Age-Based Outcomes after Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement with Bioprosthetic versus Mechanical Valves.

Recommendations for prosthesis type in older patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are established, albeit undervalidated. The purpose of this study is to compare outcomes after bioprosthetic vs mechanical SAVR across various age groups. This was a retrospective study using an institutional SAVR database. All patients who underwent isolated SAVR were compared across valve types and age strata (<65 years, 65-75 years, >75 years). Patients who underwent concomitant operations, aortic root interventions, or prior aortic valve replacement were excluded. Objective survival and aortic valve reinterventions were compared. Kaplan-Meier survival estimation and multivariate regression were performed. A total of 1,847 patients underwent SAVR from 2010-2023. 1,452 (78.6%) patients received bioprosthetic valves while 395 (21.4%) received mechanical valves. Of those who received bioprosthetic valves, 349 (24.0%) were <65 years old, 627 (43.2%) were 65-75 years old, and 476 (32.8%%) were older than 75. For mechanical valve patients, 308 (78.0%) were <65 years, 84 (21.3%) were between 65-75 years, and 3 (0.7%) were >75 years. Median follow-up in the total cohort was 6.2 [2.6-8.9] years. No statistically significant differences were observed in early-term Kaplan-Meier survival estimates between SAVR valve types in all age groups. However, cumulative incidence estimates of aortic valve reintervention were significantly higher in patients under 65 who received bioprosthetic vs mechanical valves, with 5-year reintervention rates of 5.8% and 3.1%, respectively (p=0.002). On competing risk analysis for valve reintervention, bioprosthetic valves were significantly associated with an increased hazard of AV reintervention (HR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.73-6.49; p<0.001). In conclusion, SAVR with bioprosthetic valves (particularly in patients <65 years) was comparable in survival to mechanical valve SAVR but significantly associated with increased valve reintervention rates.

Feedback, learning and becoming: Narratives of feedback in complex performance challenges.

INTRODUCTION: Becoming a general practitioner (or family medicine specialist) is challenging, as trainees learn to manage complex and ambiguous situations. Feedback is a key component of this learning. Although research has tended to focus on feedback's momentary processes and impacts, there is value in seeking to understand the work it does over time and how trainees position themselves across multiple feedback encounters. We ask: how do newly qualified GPs narrate themselves and their experiences with complex performance challenges? Within these narratives, what is the role of feedback? METHODS: The research adopts a holistic and sequential narrative analysis approach, with in-depth narrative interviews of 16 general practice trainees who had just completed their training requirements. The analysis involved restorying the participant narratives chronologically. Each narrative formed a unit of analysis where narrative commonalities across plots, characters, emotions and the role of feedback were interpreted. RESULTS: Four plotlines within GP trainees' stories of complex performance challenges were identified: Journeyperson, Hero's Quest, Solo Journeyer and Endless Struggle. Trainees, supervisors and feedback are positioned differently within these plotlines. Narratives were saturated with emotions. DISCUSSION: The plotlines bring together an alternative way of understanding how feedback, learning and becoming are woven together. They illustrate how multiple interactions with patients, supervisors, peers and systems thread together into an overall trajectory. How a trainee positions themselves as protagonists and who they characterise as their antagonists can help direct the focus of supervisors' feedback conversations.

Training injuries in elite men's senior and academy (Super League) rugby league; an analysis of 224,000 exposure-hours.

OBJECTIVES: Report two-years of training injury data in senior and academy professional rugby league. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: Match and training time-loss injuries and exposure data were recorded from two-seasons of the European Super League competition. Eleven/12 (2021) and 12/12 (2022) senior and 8/12 (2021) and 12/12 (2022) academy teams participated. Training injuries are described in detail and overall match injuries referred to for comparison only. RESULTS: 224,000 training exposure hours were recorded with 293 injuries at the senior (mean [95 % confidence interval]; 3 [2-3] per 1000 h) and 268 academy level (2 [2-3] per 1000 h), accounting for 31 % and 40 % of all injuries (i.e., matches and training). The severity of training injuries (senior: 35 [30-39], academy: 36 [30-42] days-lost) was similar to match injuries. Lower-limb injuries had the greatest injury incidence at both levels (senior: 1.85 [1.61-2.12], academy: 1.28 [1.08-1.51] per 1000 h). Head injuries at the academy level had greater severity (35 [25-45] vs. 18 [12-14] days-lost; p < 0.01) and burden (17 [16-18] vs. 4 [4-5] days-lost per 1000 h; p = 0.02) than senior level. At the senior level, the incidence of contact injuries was lower than non-contact injuries (risk ratio: 0.29 [0.09-0.88], p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Training injuries accounted for about a third of injuries, with similar injury severity to match-play. Within training there is a higher rate of non-contact vs. contact injuries. Whilst current injury prevention interventions target matches, these data highlight the importance of collecting high quality training injury data to develop and evaluate injury prevention strategies in training.

The Incidence and Propensity of Head Acceleration Events in a Season of Men's and Women's English Elite-Level Club Rugby Union Matches.

OBJECTIVES: To describe and compare the incidence and propensity of head acceleration events (HAEs) using instrumented mouthguards (iMG) by playing position in a season of English elite-level men's and women's rugby union matches. METHODS: iMG data were collected for 255 men and 133 women from 1,865 and 807 player-matches, respectively, and synchronised to video-coded match footage. Head peak resultant linear acceleration (PLA) and peak resultant angular acceleration (PAA) were extracted from each HAE. Mean incidence and propensity values were calculated across different recording thresholds for forwards and backs in addition to positional groups (front row, second row, back row, half backs, centres, back three) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) estimated. Significance was determined based on 95% CI not overlapping across recording thresholds. RESULTS: For both men and women, HAE incidence was twice as high for forwards than backs across the majority of recording thresholds. HAE incidence and propensity were significantly lower in the women's game compared to the men's game. Back-row and front-row players had the highest incidence across all HAE thresholds for men's forwards, while women's forward positional groups and men's and women's back positional groups were similar. Tackles and carries exhibited a greater propensity to result in HAE for forward positional groups and the back three in the men's game, and back row in the women's game. CONCLUSION: These data offer valuable benchmark and comparative data for future research, HAE mitigation strategies, and management of HAE exposure in elite rugby players. Positional-specific differences in HAE incidence and propensity should be considered in future mitigation strategies.

Rapid Targeted Assembly of the Proteome Reveals Evolutionary Variation of GC Content in Avian Lice.

Nucleotide base composition plays an influential role in the molecular mechanisms involved in gene function, phenotype, and amino acid composition. GC content (proportion of guanine and cytosine in DNA sequences) shows a high level of variation within and among species. Many studies measure GC content in a small number of genes, which may not be representative of genome-wide GC variation. One challenge when assembling extensive genomic data sets for these studies is the significant amount of resources (monetary and computational) associated with data processing, and many bioinformatic tools have not been optimized for resource efficiency. Using a high-performance computing (HPC) cluster, we manipulated resources provided to the targeted gene assembly program, automated target restricted assembly method (aTRAM), to determine an optimum way to run the program to maximize resource use. Using our optimum assembly approach, we assembled and measured GC content of all of the protein-coding genes of a diverse group of parasitic feather lice. Of the 499 426 genes assembled across 57 species, feather lice were GC-poor (mean GC = 42.96%) with a significant amount of variation within and between species (GC range = 19.57%-73.33%). We found a significant correlation between GC content and standard deviation per taxon for overall GC and GC3, which could indicate selection for G and C nucleotides in some species. Phylogenetic signal of GC content was detected in both GC and GC3. This research provides a large-scale investigation of GC content in parasitic lice laying the foundation for understanding the basis of variation in base composition across species.

Long-term outcomes of total arch replacement with bilateral antegrade cerebral perfusion using the "arch first" approach.

OBJECTIVE: To report outcomes of total arch replacement (TAR) with hypothermic circulatory arrest and bilateral antegrade cerebral perfusion (bACP) using an "arch first" approach for acute Type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). The "arch first" approach involved revascularization of the aortic arch branch vessels with uninterrupted ACP, before lower body circulatory arrest, while the patient was cooling. METHODS: This was an observational study of aortic surgeries from 2010 to 2021. All patients who underwent TAR with bACP for ATAAD were included. Short-term and long-term outcomes were reported utilizing descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meier survival estimation. RESULTS: A total of 215 patients were identified who underwent TAR + bACP for ATAAD. Age was 59.0 [49.0-67.0] years and 35.3% were female. 73 patients (34.0%) underwent a concomitant aortic root replacement, 188 (87.4%) had aortic cannulation, circulatory arrest time was 37.0 [26.0-52.0] minutes, and nadir temperature was 20.8 [19.4-22.5] degrees Celsius. 35 patients (16.3%) had operative mortality (STS definition), 17 (7.9%) had a new stroke, 79 (36.7%) had prolonged mechanical ventilation (>24 h), 35 (16.3%) had acute renal failure (by RIFLE criteria), and 128 (59.5%) had blood product transfusions. One-year survival was 77.1%, while 5-years survival was 67.1%. During follow-up, there were 23 (10.7%) reinterventions involving the descending thoracic aorta - either thoracic endovascular aortic repair or open thoracoabdominal aortic replacement. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with ATAAD, short-term postoperative outcomes after TAR + bACP using the "arch first" approach are acceptable. Moreover, this operative strategy may furnish long-term durability, with a reasonably low reintervention rate and satisfactory overall survival.

Late Outcomes After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation with Balloon-Versus Self-Expandable Valves: Meta-Analysis of Reconstructed Time-To-Event Data.

Self-expanding valves (SEV) and balloon-expandable valves (BEV) for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) have their own features. There is a growing interest in long-term outcomes with the adoption of lifetime management in younger patients. To evaluate late outcomes in TAVI with SEV versus BEV, we performed a study-level meta-analysis of reconstructed time-to-event data published by May 31, 2023. We found no statistically significant difference in all-cause death after TAVI with SEV versus BEV. Randomized controlled trials are warranted to validate our results.

Non-calcified plaque-based coronary stenosis grading in contrast enhanced CT.

BACKGROUND: The high mortality rate associated with coronary heart disease has led to state-of-the-art non-invasive methods for cardiac diagnosis including computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. However, stenosis computation and clinical assessment of non-calcified plaques has been very challenging due to their ambiguous intensity response in CT i.e. a significant overlap with surrounding muscle tissues and blood. Accordingly, this research presents an approach for computation of coronary stenosis by investigating cross-sectional lumen behaviour along the length of 3D coronary segments. METHODS: Non-calcified plaques are characterized by comparatively lower-intensity values with respect to the surrounding. Accordingly, segment-wise orthogonal volume was reconstructed in 3D space using the segmented coronary tree. Subsequently, the cross sectional volumetric data was investigated using proposed CNN-based plaque quantification model and subsequent stenosis grading in clinical context was performed. In the last step, plaque-affected orthogonal volume was further investigated by comparing vessel-wall thickness and lumen area obstruction w.r.t. expert-based annotations to validate the stenosis grading performance of model. RESULTS: The experimental data consists of clinical CT images obtained from the Rotterdam CT repository leading to 600 coronary segments and subsequent 15786 cross-sectional images. According to the results, the proposed method quantified coronary vessel stenosis i.e. severity of the non-calcified plaque with an overall accuracy of 83%. Moreover, for individual grading, the proposed model show promising results with accuracy equal to 86%, 90% and 79% respectively for severe, moderate and mild stenosis. The stenosis grading performance of the proposed model was further validated by performing lumen-area versus wall-thickness analysis as per annotations of manual experts. The statistical results for lumen area analysis precisely correlates with the quantification performance of the model with a mean deviation of 5% only. CONCLUSION: The overall results demonstrates capability of the proposed model to grade the vessel stenosis with reasonable accuracy and precision equivalent to human experts.

Long-Term Outcomes of Tricuspid Valve Replacement With Mechanical Versus Tissue Valves: Meta-Analysis of Reconstructed Time-to-Event Data.

Tricuspid valve replacement (TVR) with mechanical versus tissue valves remains a controversial subject. To evaluate the long-term effects of types of valves on patient-relevant outcomes, we performed a systematic review with meta-analysis of reconstructed time-to-event data of studies published by March 15, 2024 (according to referred the Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines). A total of 21 studies met our eligibility criteria and included 7,166 patients (mechanical: 2,495 patients, 34.8%). Patients who underwent mechanical TVR had a lower risk of death than those who received a tissue valve (hazard ratio [HR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70 to 0.84, p <0.001). Mechanical TVR was associated with lifetime gain, as evidenced by the restricted mean survival time, which was 2.2 years longer in patients who underwent TVR with mechanical valves (12.4 vs 10.2 years, p <0.001). Our landmark analysis for reoperations revealed the following: from the time point 0 to 7 years, we found no difference in the risk of reoperation between mechanical and tissues valves (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.61, p = 0.946); however, from the time point 7 years onward, we found that mechanical TVR had a lower risk of reoperation in the follow-up (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.72, p = 0.001). The meta-regression analysis demonstrated a modulating effect of atrial fibrillation on the association between mechanical valves and mortality; the HRs for all-cause death tended to decrease in the presence of populations with a larger proportion of atrial fibrillation (p = 0.018). In conclusion, our results suggest that TVR with mechanical valves, whenever considered clinically reasonable and accepted by patients as an option, can offer a better long-term survival and lower risk of reoperation in the long run.

Harnessing landrace diversity empowers wheat breeding.

Harnessing genetic diversity in major staple crops through the development of new breeding capabilities is essential to ensure food security1. Here we examined the genetic and phenotypic diversity of the A.E. Watkins landrace collection2 of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum), a major global cereal, through whole-genome re-sequencing (827 Watkins landraces and 208 modern cultivars) and in-depth field evaluation spanning a decade. We discovered that modern cultivars are derived from just two of the seven ancestral groups of wheat and maintain very long-range haplotype integrity. The remaining five groups represent untapped genetic sources, providing access to landrace-specific alleles and haplotypes for breeding. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) based haplotypes and association genetics analyses link Watkins genomes to the thousands of high-resolution quantitative trait loci (QTL), and significant marker-trait associations identified. Using these structured germplasm, genotyping and informatics resources, we revealed many Watkins-unique beneficial haplotypes that can confer superior traits in modern wheat. Furthermore, we assessed the phenotypic effects of 44,338 Watkins-unique haplotypes, introgressed from 143 prioritised QTL in the context of modern cultivars, bridging the gap between landrace diversity and current breeding. This study establishes a framework for systematically utilising genetic diversity in crop improvement to achieve sustainable food security.

Decoding chromosome organization using CheC-PLS: chromosome conformation by proximity labeling and long-read sequencing.

Genomic approaches have provided detailed insight into chromosome architecture. However, commonly deployed techniques do not preserve connectivity-based information, leaving large-scale genome organization poorly characterized. Here, we developed CheC-PLS: a proximity-labeling technique that indelibly marks, and then decodes, protein-associated sites. CheC-PLS tethers dam methyltransferase to a protein of interest, followed by Nanopore sequencing to identify methylated bases - indicative of in vivo proximity - along reads >100kb. As proof-of-concept we analyzed, in budding yeast, a cohesin-based meiotic backbone that organizes chromatin into an array of loops. Our data recapitulates previously obtained association patterns, and, importantly, exposes variability between cells. Single read data reveals cohesin translocation on DNA and, by anchoring reads onto unique regions, we define the internal organization of the ribosomal DNA locus. Our versatile technique, which we also deployed on isolated nuclei with nanobodies, promises to illuminate diverse chromosomal processes by describing the in vivo conformations of single chromosomes.

Carbapenemase gene blaOXA-48 detected at six freshwater sites in Northern Ireland discharging onto identified bathing locations.

Faecal contamination of surface waters has the potential to spread not only pathogenic organisms but also antimicrobial resistant organisms. During the bathing season of 2021, weekly water samples, from six selected coastal bathing locations (n = 93) and their freshwater tributaries (n = 93), in Northern Ireland (UK), were examined for concentrations of faecal indicator bacteria Escherichia coli and intestinal enterococci. Microbial source tracking involved detection of genetic markers from the genus Bacteroides using PCR assays for the general AllBac marker, the human HF8 marker and the ruminant BacR marker for the detection of human, and ruminant sources of faecal contamination. The presence of beta-lactamase genes blaOXA-48, blaKPC, and blaNDM-1 was determined using PCR assays for the investigation of antimicrobial resistance genes that are responsible for lack of efficacy in major broad-spectrum antibiotics. The beta-lactamase gene blaOXA-48 was found in freshwater tributary samples at all six locations. blaOXA-48 was detected in 83% of samples that tested positive for the human marker and 69% of samples that tested positive for the ruminant marker over all six locations. This study suggests a risk of human exposure to antimicrobial resistant bacteria where bathing waters receive at least episodically substantial transfers from such tributaries.

Central versus peripheral cannulation for acute type A aortic dissection: A meta-analysis of over 14,000 patients.

OBJECTIVE: The optimal cannulation strategy for patients with acute type A aortic dissections (ATAAD) is unclear. METHODS: A systematic search was performed to identify all studies comparing aortic and non-aortic cannulation in patients undergoing ATAAD repair. The primary endpoint was overall survival. The secondary endpoints were operative mortality, postoperative stroke, renal failure, renal replacement therapy, paraplegia, and mesenteric ischemia. Pooled meta-analyses with aggregated and reconstructed time-to-event data were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-three studies were included (aortic: 3904; non-aortic: 10,719). Ten-year overall survival was 61.1 â€‹% and 58.4 â€‹% for aortic and non-aortic cannulation, respectively (HR 1.07; 95 â€‹% CI 0.92-1.25; p â€‹= â€‹0.38). No statistically significant difference was observed for operative mortality (p â€‹= â€‹0.10), stroke (p â€‹= â€‹0.89), renal failure (p â€‹= â€‹0.83), or renal replacement therapy (p â€‹= â€‹0.77). CONCLUSION: Patients undergoing surgery for ATAAD can undergo aortic cannulation with similar outcomes to those who undergo non-aortic cannulation.

Acute Aortic Dissection After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

Acute aortic dissection (AAD) is a rare and potentially fatal complication associated with transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Owing to the paucity of existing institutional data, we sought to assess the incidence of postimplant AAD in patients who underwent TAVR at a single institution. All patients who underwent TAVR from 2013 to 2022 were retrospectively reviewed to identify those who possessed clinical or radiologic evidence of AAD after TAVR. Follow-up and survival data were retrieved for all included patients. A total of 4,317 patients underwent TAVR, of whom 9 (0.2%) sustained an AAD. These patients had a mean age of 80 years (range 53 to 92), mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons 30-day mortality risk of 5.7% (2.4% to 16.7%), and mean effective aortic valve area of 0.8 cm2 (0.4 to 1.5 cm2). Preoperative maximum aortic diameter was 3.9 cm (2.6 to 4 cm). Of these 9 patients, 6 (67%) showed evidence of Stanford type A dissection, whereas 3 (33%) were diagnosed with Stanford type B dissection. The most common causes of dissection were posterior annular rupture by the transcatheter valve (THV) (44%) and THV embolization or "pop-out" into the ascending aorta (22%). A total of 6 patients (66.7%), comprising 5 type A (55.6%) and 1 type B (11.1%) aortic dissections, died within 30 days of AAD. The median time to follow-up in those surviving TAVR with intraoperative AAD was 1,042 days (range: 648 to 2,666). Surviving patients were managed through thoracic endovascular aortic repair and medical management. In conclusion, in this highly selected cohort of patients, our experience indicates that AAD after TAVR is a rare but often lethal intraprocedural sequela of THV implantation, especially in cases of type A aortic dissection.

Machine-learning approaches for risk prediction in transcatheter aortic valve implantation: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: With the expanding integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) into the structural heart domain, numerous ML models have emerged for the prediction of adverse outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). We aim to identify, describe, and critically appraise ML prediction models for adverse outcomes after TAVI. Key objectives consisted in summarizing model performance, evaluating adherence to reporting guidelines, and transparency. METHODS: We searched PubMed, SCOPUS, and Embase through August 2023. We selected published machine learning models predicting TAVI outcomes. Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data, and assessed the study quality according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Outcomes included summary C-statistics and model risk of bias assessed with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. C-statistics were pooled using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies (118,153 patients) employing various ML algorithms (76 models) were included in the systematic review. Predictive ability of models varied: 11.8% inadequate (C-statistic <0.60), 26.3% adequate (C-statistic 0.60-0.70), 31.6% acceptable (C-statistic 0.70-0.80), and 30.3% demonstrated excellent (C-statistic >0.80) performance. Meta-analyses revealed excellent predictive performance for early mortality (C-statistic: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.91), acceptable performance for 1-year mortality (C-statistic: 0.76; 95% CI, 0.67-0.84), and acceptable performance for predicting permanent pacemaker implantation (C-statistic: 0.75; 95% CI, 0.51-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: ML models for TAVI outcomes exhibit adequate-to-excellent performance, suggesting potential clinical utility. We identified concerns in methodology and transparency, emphasizing the need for improved scientific reporting standards.

External validation of the ARCH score in patients undergoing aortic arch reconstruction under circulatory arrest.

BACKGROUND: Aortic arch surgery with hypothermic circulatory arrest (HCA) carries a higher risk of morbidity and mortality compared to routine cardiac surgical procedures. The newly developed ARCH (arch reconstruction under circulatory arrest with hypothermia) score has not been externally validated. We sought to externally validate this score in our local population. METHODS: All consecutive open aortic arch surgeries with HCA performed between 2014 and 2023 were included. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed. Model discrimination was assessed by the C-statistic with 95% confidence intervals as part of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Model performance was visualized by a calibration plot and quantified by the Brier score. RESULTS: A total of 760 patients (38.3% females) were included. The mean age was 61 (±13.6) years, with 56.4% of patients' age >60 years. The procedures were carried out mostly emergently or urgently (59.6%). Total arch replacement was performed in 32.5% of the patients, and aortic root procedures were carried out in 74.6%. In-hospital death occurred in 64 patients (8.4%), and stroke occurred in 5.4%. The C-statistic revealed a low discriminatory ability for predicting in-hospital mortality (area under the ROC curve, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.69; P = .002); however, model calibration was found to be excellent (Brier score of 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: The ARCH score for in-hospital mortality showed low discriminatory ability in our local population, although with excellent ability for prediction of mortality.