Asymptomatic wild-type poliovirus infection in India among children with previous oral poliovirus vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Mucosal immunity induced by oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) is imperfect and potentially allows immunized individuals to participate in asymptomatic wild-type poliovirus transmission in settings with efficient fecal-oral transmission of infection. METHODS: We examined the extent of asymptomatic wild-type poliovirus transmission in India by measuring the prevalence of virus in stool samples obtained from 14,005 healthy children who were in contact with 2761 individuals with suspected poliomyelitis reported during the period 2003-2008. RESULTS: Wild-type poliovirus serotypes 1 and 3 were isolated from the stool samples of 103 (0.74%) and 104 (0.74%) healthy contacts, respectively. Among contacts of individuals with laboratory-confirmed poliomyelitis, 27 (12.7%) of 213 and 29 (13.9%) of 209 had serotypes 1 and 3, respectively, isolated from their stool samples. The odds ratio of excreting serotype 1 wild-type poliovirus was 0.13 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.87) among healthy children reporting 6 doses of OPV, compared with children reporting 0-2 doses. However, two-thirds of healthy children who excreted this virus reported >or=6 doses, and the prevalence of this virus did not decrease with age over the sampled range. CONCLUSIONS: Although OPV is protective against infection with poliovirus, the majority of healthy contacts who excreted wild-type poliovirus were well vaccinated. This is consistent with a potential role for OPV-vaccinated children in continued wild-type poliovirus transmission and requires further study.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a decision analytic model for posteradication polio risk management.

Decision analytic modeling of polio risk management policies after eradication may help inform decisionmakers about the quantitative tradeoffs implied by various options. Given the significant dynamic complexity and uncertainty involving posteradication decisions, this article aims to clarify the structure of a decision analytic model developed to help characterize the risks, costs, and benefits of various options for polio risk management after eradication of wild polioviruses and analyze the implications of different sources of uncertainty. We provide an influence diagram of the model with a description of each component, explore the impact of different assumptions about model inputs, and present probability distributions of model outputs. The results show that choices made about surveillance, response, and containment for different income groups and immunization policies play a major role in the expected final costs and polio cases. While the overall policy implications of the model remain robust to the variations of assumptions and input uncertainty we considered, the analyses suggest the need for policymakers to carefully consider tradeoffs and for further studies to address the most important knowledge gaps.

Risk management in a polio-free world.

Inherent in the decision to launch the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988 was the expectation for many people that immunization against poliomyelitis would eventually simply stop, as had been the case with smallpox following its eradication in 1977. However, the strategies for managing the risks associated with a "polio-free" world must be continuously refined to reflect new developments, particularly in our understanding of the live polioviruses in the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and in the international approach to managing potential biohazards. The most important of these developments has been the confirmation in 2000 that vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) can circulate and cause polio outbreaks, making the use of OPV after interruption of wild poliovirus transmission incompatible with a polio-free world. A comprehensive strategy has been developed to minimize the risks associated with eventual OPV cessation, centered on appropriate long-term biocontainment of poliovirus stocks (whether for vaccine production, diagnosis, or research), the controlled reintroduction of any live poliovirus vaccine (i.e., from an OPV stockpile), and appropriate use of the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). Although some aspects of this risk management strategy are still debated, there is wide agreement that no strategy would entirely eliminate the potential risks to a polio-free world. The current strategy for risk management in a polio-free world will continue to evolve with better characterization of these risks and the development of more effective approaches both to reduce those risks and to limit their consequences should they occur.