Epidemiology of squirrelpox virus in grey squirrels in the UK.

The dramatic decline of the native red squirrel in the UK has been attributed to both direct and disease-mediated competition with the grey squirrel where the competitor acts as a reservoir host of squirrelpox virus (SQPV). SQPV is threatening red squirrel conservation efforts, yet little is known about its epidemiology. We analysed seroprevalence of antibody against SQPV in grey squirrels from northern England and the Scottish Borders in relation to season, weather, sex, and body weight using Generalized Linear Models in conjunction with Structural Equation Modelling. Results indicated a heterogeneous prevalence pattern which is male-biased, increases with weight and varies seasonally. Seroprevalence rose during the autumn and peaked in spring. Weather parameters had an indirect effect on SQPV antibody status. Our findings point towards a direct disease transmission route, which includes environmental contamination. Red squirrel conservation management options should therefore seek to minimize squirrel contact points.

Disease threats posed by alien species: the role of a poxvirus in the decline of the native red squirrel in Britain.

Red squirrels are declining in the United Kingdom. Competition from, and squirrel poxvirus (SQPV) disease carried by, grey squirrels are assumed to be determining the decline. We analyse the incidence of disease and changes in distribution of the two species in Cumbria, from 1993 to 2003 and compare these to the predictions of an individual-based (IB) spatially explicit disease model simulating the dynamics of both squirrel species and SQPV in the landscape. Grey squirrels increased whilst red squirrels declined over 10 years. The incidence of disease in red squirrels was related to the time since grey squirrels arrived in the landscape. Analysis of rates of decline in red squirrel populations in other areas showed that declines are 17-25 times higher in regions where SQPV is present in grey squirrel populations than in those where it is not. The IB model predicted spatial overlap of 3-4 years between the species that was also observed in the field. The model predictions matched the observed data best when contact rates and rates of infection between the two species were low. The model predicted that a grey squirrel population control of >60% effective kill was needed to stop the decline in red squirrel populations in Cumbria.