Revisiting future extreme precipitation trends in the Mediterranean.

Global warming is anticipated to intensify the hydrological cycle. However, this is neither expected to be globally uniform nor is the relationship between temperature increase and rainfall intensities expected to be linear. The objective of this study is to assess changes in annual rainfall extremes, total annual precipitation, and their relationship in the larger Mediterranean region. We use an up-to-date ensemble of 33 regional climate simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.11° resolution. We analyse the significance of trends for 1951-2000 and 2001-2100 under a 'business-as-usual' pathway (RCP8.5). Our future projections indicate a strong north/south Mediterranean gradient, with significant, decreasing trends in the magnitude of daily precipitation extremes in the south and the Maghreb region (up to -10 mm/decade) and less profound, increasing trends in the north. Despite the contrasting future trends, the 50-year daily precipitation extremes are projected to strongly increase (up to 100%) throughout the region. The 100-year extremes, derived with traditional extreme value approaches from the 1951-2000 simulations, underestimate the magnitude of these extreme events in the 2001-2100 projections by 30% for the drier areas of the Mediterranean (200-500 mm average annual rainfall) and by up to 20-30% for the wetter parts of the region. These 100-year extremes can occur at any time in any Mediterranean location. The contribution of the wettest day per year to the annual total precipitation is expected to increase (5-30%) throughout the region. The projected increase in extremes and the strong reductions in mean annual precipitation in the drier, southern and eastern Mediterranean will amplify the challenges for water resource management.

Exploring the economy-wide effects of agriculture on air quality and health: Evidence from Europe.

Agricultural emissions strongly contribute to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) and associated effects on human health. Environmentally-extended input-output models and a regional atmospheric chemistry model (WRF-Chem) were combined to conduct an economy-wide assessment of air pollution and pre-mature mortality in the European Union (EU), associated with a 20% increase in the final demand for the output of the agricultural sector. Model results revealed significant differences in air pollution originating from agricultural growth across the 28 EU countries (EU-28). The highest impact of agricultural growth on PM2.5 concentrations occur over the Northern Balkan countries (Bulgaria and Romania) and northern Italy. However, the highest excess mortality rates in the EU-28 due to changes in emissions and enhanced PM2.5 concentrations are observed in Malta, Greece, Spain and Cyprus. The least affected countries are mostly located in the northern part of Europe, with the exception of the Scandinavian Countries, which have relatively good air quality under current conditions. Our integrated modelling framework results highlight the importance of capturing both the direct and indirect air pollution emissions of economic sectors via upstream supply chains and underscore the non-linear response of surface PM2.5 levels and their health impacts to emission fluxes.

Assessing the urban water balance: the Urban Water Flow Model and its application in Cyprus.

Modelling the urban water balance enables the understanding of the interactions of water within an urban area and allows for better management of water resources. However, few models today provide a comprehensive overview of all water sources and uses. The objective of the current paper was to develop a user-friendly tool that quantifies and visualizes all water flows, losses and inefficiencies in urban environments. The Urban Water Flow Model was implemented in a spreadsheet and includes a water-savings application that computes the contributions of user-selected saving options to the overall water balance. The model was applied to the coastal town of Limassol, Cyprus, for the hydrologic years 2003/04-2008/09. Data were collected from the different authorities and hydrologic equations and estimations were added to complete the balance. Average precipitation was 363 mm/yr, amounting to 25.4 × 10(6)m(3)/yr, more than double the annual potable water supply to the town. Surface runoff constituted 29.6% of all outflows, while evapotranspiration from impervious areas was 21.6%. Possible potable water savings for 2008/09 were estimated at 5.3 × 10(3) m(3), which is 50% of the total potable water provided to the area. This saving would also result in a 6% reduction of surface runoff.