A prognostic model, including quantitative fetal fibronectin, to predict preterm labour: the QUIDS meta-analysis and prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of preterm labour is challenging. False-positive diagnoses are common and result in unnecessary, potentially harmful treatments (e.g. tocolytics, antenatal corticosteroids and magnesium sulphate) and costly hospital admissions. Measurement of fetal fibronectin in vaginal fluid is a biochemical test that can indicate impending preterm birth. OBJECTIVES: To develop an externally validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors, for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth and to assess its cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: The study comprised (1) a qualitative study to establish the decisional needs of pregnant women and their caregivers, (2) an individual participant data meta-analysis of existing studies to develop a prognostic model for spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in women with symptoms of preterm labour based on quantitative fetal fibronectin and clinical risk factors, (3) external validation of the prognostic model in a prospective cohort study across 26 UK centres, (4) a model-based economic evaluation comparing the prognostic model with qualitative fetal fibronectin, and quantitative fetal fibronectin with cervical length measurement, in terms of cost per QALY gained and (5) a qualitative assessment of the acceptability of quantitative fetal fibronectin. DATA SOURCES/SETTING: The model was developed using data from five European prospective cohort studies of quantitative fetal fibronectin. The UK prospective cohort study was carried out across 26 UK centres. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women at 22+0-34+6 weeks' gestation with signs and symptoms of preterm labour. HEALTH TECHNOLOGY BEING ASSESSED: Quantitative fetal fibronectin. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days. RESULTS: The individual participant data meta-analysis included 1783 women and 139 events of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days (event rate 7.8%). The prognostic model that was developed included quantitative fetal fibronectin, smoking, ethnicity, nulliparity and multiple pregnancy. The model was externally validated in a cohort of 2837 women, with 83 events of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days (event rate 2.93%), an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.93), a calibration slope of 1.22 and a Nagelkerke R2 of 0.34. The economic analysis found that the prognostic model was cost-effective compared with using qualitative fetal fibronectin at a threshold for hospital admission and treatment of ≥ 2% risk of preterm birth within 7 days. LIMITATIONS: The outcome proportion (spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test) was 2.9% in the validation study. This is in line with other studies, but having slightly fewer than 100 events is a limitation in model validation. CONCLUSIONS: A prognostic model that included quantitative fetal fibronectin and clinical risk factors showed excellent performance in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test, was cost-effective and can be used to inform a decision support tool to help guide management decisions for women with threatened preterm labour. FUTURE WORK: The prognostic model will be embedded in electronic maternity records and a mobile telephone application, enabling ongoing data collection for further refinement and validation of the model. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015027590 and Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41598423. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 52. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Identifying which women with symptoms of labour will give birth early is challenging, so many women unnecessarily receive therapies aimed at preventing complications in preterm birth. A test called quantitative fetal fibronectin, which uses vaginal swab samples, may help to improve the diagnosis of preterm labour. Fetal fibronectin is a protein that is released from the fetal membranes that surround the developing baby in the womb. The lower the concentration of fetal fibronectin, the less likely the occurrence of preterm birth. Our aim was to see if quantitative fetal fibronectin, in combination with some features of pregnancy (e.g. previous pregnancy history and twin pregnancy), can accurately predict preterm birth in women who have symptoms of preterm labour. We asked women, their partners, doctors and midwives what information would be most useful to them, and how this should be presented. We then analysed previous research data; we used quantitative fetal fibronectin and clinical risk factors together to predict the chance of preterm birth. We explored which features could predict preterm birth most effectively while still being good value to the NHS. To ensure that this risk predictor worked in UK populations, we undertook a research study across 26 UK hospitals. Women who had symptoms of preterm labour were invited to participate. We collected information from these women (approximately 3000 women), including quantitative fetal fibronectin results. We found that a risk predictor comprising quantitative fetal fibronectin and four other features performed best at predicting whether or not preterm birth will occur within the next week for women with symptoms of preterm labour, and that this had potential to be clinically useful and cost-effective. The quantitative fetal fibronectin testing process was acceptable to women, and clinicians found the risk predictor useful. We used our findings to develop a risk calculator to help women and clinicians assess how likely preterm birth is, and decide whether or not to start treatment.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model of preterm birth for women with preterm labour symptoms (the QUIDS study): A prospective cohort study and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Timely interventions in women presenting with preterm labour can substantially improve health outcomes for preterm babies. However, establishing such a diagnosis is very challenging, as signs and symptoms of preterm labour are common and can be nonspecific. We aimed to develop and externally validate a risk prediction model using concentration of vaginal fluid fetal fibronectin (quantitative fFN), in combination with clinical risk factors, for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth and assessed its cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Pregnant women included in the analyses were 22+0 to 34+6 weeks gestation with signs and symptoms of preterm labour. The primary outcome was spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of quantitative fFN test. The risk prediction model was developed and internally validated in an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of 5 European prospective cohort studies (2009 to 2016; 1,783 women; mean age 29.7 years; median BMI 24.8 kg/m2; 67.6% White; 11.7% smokers; 51.8% nulliparous; 10.4% with multiple pregnancy; 139 [7.8%] with spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days). The model was then externally validated in a prospective cohort study in 26 United Kingdom centres (2016 to 2018; 2,924 women; mean age 28.2 years; median BMI 25.4 kg/m2; 88.2% White; 21% smokers; 35.2% nulliparous; 3.5% with multiple pregnancy; 85 [2.9%] with spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days). The developed risk prediction model for spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days included quantitative fFN, current smoking, not White ethnicity, nulliparity, and multiple pregnancy. After internal validation, the optimism adjusted area under the curve was 0.89 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.92), and the optimism adjusted Nagelkerke R2 was 35% (95% CI 33% to 37%). On external validation in the prospective UK cohort population, the area under the curve was 0.89 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.94), and Nagelkerke R2 of 36% (95% CI: 34% to 38%). Recalibration of the model's intercept was required to ensure overall calibration-in-the-large. A calibration curve suggested close agreement between predicted and observed risks in the range of predictions 0% to 10%, but some miscalibration (underprediction) at higher risks (slope 1.24 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.26)). Despite any miscalibration, the net benefit of the model was higher than "treat all" or "treat none" strategies for thresholds up to about 15% risk. The economic analysis found the prognostic model was cost effective, compared to using qualitative fFN, at a threshold for hospital admission and treatment of ≥2% risk of preterm birth within 7 days. Study limitations include the limited number of participants who are not White and levels of missing data for certain variables in the development dataset. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that a risk prediction model including vaginal fFN concentration and clinical risk factors showed promising performance in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test and has potential to inform management decisions for women with threatened preterm labour. Further evaluation of the risk prediction model in clinical practice is required to determine whether the risk prediction model improves clinical outcomes if used in practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). The study was registered with ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN 41598423) and NIHR Portfolio (CPMS: 31277).

Which Factors Contribute to False-Positive, False-Negative, and Invalid Results in Fetal Fibronectin Testing in Women with Symptoms of Preterm Labor?

Objective We assessed the influence of external factors on false-positive, false-negative, and invalid fibronectin results in the prediction of spontaneous delivery within 7 days. Methods We studied symptomatic women between 24 and 34 weeks' gestational age. We performed uni- and multivariable logistic regression to estimate the effect of external factors (vaginal soap, digital examination, transvaginal sonography, sexual intercourse, vaginal bleeding) on the risk of false-positive, false-negative, and invalid results, using spontaneous delivery within 7 days as the outcome. Results Out of 708 women, 237 (33%) had a false-positive result; none of the factors showed a significant association. Vaginal bleeding increased the proportion of positive fetal fibronectin (fFN) results, but was significantly associated with a lower risk of false-positive test results (odds ratio [OR], 0.22; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 0.12-0.39). Ten women (1%) had a false-negative result. None of the investigated factors was significantly associated with a significantly higher risk of false-negative results. Twenty-one tests (3%) were invalid; only vaginal bleeding showed a significant association (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.7-12). Conclusion The effect of external factors on the performance of qualitative fFN testing is limited, with vaginal bleeding as the only factor that reduces its validity.

Comparison of the Actim Partus test and the fetal fibronectin test in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in symptomatic women undergoing cervical length measurement.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the accuracy of the Actim Partus test and fetal fibronectin (fFN) test in the prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery within seven days in symptomatic women undergoing cervical length measurement. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a post-hoc analysis on frozen samples of a nationwide cohort study in all 10 perinatal centres in the Netherlands. We selected samples from women with signs of preterm labour between 24 and 34 weeks of gestational age and a cervical length below 30mm. Delivery within seven days after initial assessment was the primary endpoint. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the combination of both the Actim Partus test and fFN test with cervical length. A test was considered positive in case of a cervical length between 15 and 30mm with a positive Actim Partus or fFN test, and a cervical length below 15mm regardless the test result. RESULTS: In total, samples of 350 women were tested, of whom 69 (20%) delivered within seven days. Eighty-four women had a positive Actim Partus test and 162 women a positive fFN test, of whom 54 (64%) and 63 (39%) delivered within seven days, respectively. Ninety-seven women had a cervical length below 15mm, of whom 50 (52%) delivered within seven days. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of combining cervical length with the Actim Partus test or the fFN test were 91%, 75%, 47% and 97%, and 96%, 58%, 36% and 98%, respectively. CONCLUSION: According to this post-hoc study, in combination with cervical length, the Actim Partus test could be used as an alternative for the fFN test to identify women who will not deliver within seven days after presentation. Further evidence should be collected in a prospective comparative study.

The predictive value of quantitative fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in symptomatic women.

BACKGROUND: The combination of the qualitative fetal fibronectin test and cervical length measurement has a high negative predictive value for preterm birth within 7 days; however, positive prediction is poor. A new bedside quantitative fetal fibronectin test showed potential additional value over the conventional qualitative test, but there is limited evidence on the combination with cervical length measurement. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare quantitative fetal fibronectin and qualitative fetal fibronectin testing in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in symptomatic women who undergo cervical length measurement. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a European multicenter cohort study in 10 perinatal centers in 5 countries. Women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation with signs of active labor and intact membranes underwent quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement. We assessed the risk of preterm birth within 7 days in predefined strata based on fibronectin concentration and cervical length. RESULTS: Of 455 women who were included in the study, 48 women (11%) delivered within 7 days. A combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of 246 women who were at low risk: 164 women with a cervix between 15 and 30 mm and a negative fibronectin test (<50 ng/mL; preterm birth rate, 2%) and 82 women with a cervix at >30 mm (preterm birth rate, 2%). Use of quantitative fibronectin alone resulted in a predicted risk of preterm birth within 7 days that ranged from 2% in the group with the lowest fibronectin level (<10 ng/mL) to 38% in the group with the highest fibronectin level (>500 ng/mL), with similar accuracy as that of the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Combining cervical length and quantitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of an additional 19 women at low risk (preterm birth rate, 5%), using a threshold of 10 ng/mL in women with a cervix at <15 mm, and 6 women at high risk (preterm birth rate, 33%) using a threshold of >500 ng/mL in women with a cervix at >30 mm. CONCLUSION: In women with threatened preterm birth, quantitative fibronectin testing alone performs equal to the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Possibly, the combination of quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length increases this predictive capacity. Cost-effectiveness analysis and the availability of these tests in a local setting should determine the final choice.

Risk factors for preterm delivery: do they add to fetal fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement in the prediction of preterm delivery in symptomatic women?

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether patient characteristics add to the fetal fibronectin test and cervical length measurement in the prediction of preterm delivery in symptomatic women. STUDY DESIGN: A nationwide prospective cohort study was conducted in all ten perinatal centres in the Netherlands. Women with symptoms of preterm labour between 24 and 34 weeks gestation with intact membranes were invited. In all women qualitative fibronectin testing (0.050 µg/mL cut-off) and cervical length measurement were performed. Only singleton pregnancies were included in this analysis. Logistic regression was used to construct two multivariable models to predict spontaneously delivery within 7 days: a model including cervical length and fetal fibronectin as predictors, and an extended model including all potential predictors. The models were internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Predictive performances were assessed as the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. We compared the models' capability to identify women with a low risk to deliver within 7 days. A risk less than 5%, corresponding to the risk for women with a cervical length of at least 25 mm, was considered as low risk. RESULTS: Seventy-three of 600 included women (12%) had delivered spontaneously within 7 days. The extended model included maternal age, parity, previous preterm delivery, vaginal bleeding, C-reactive protein, cervical length, dilatation and fibronectin status. Both models had high discriminative performances (AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.88-0.95) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.92-0.97) respectively). Compared to the model with fibronectin and cervical length, our extended model reclassified 38 women (6%) from low risk to high risk and 21 women (4%) from high risk to low risk. Preterm delivery within 7 days occurred once in both the reclassification groups. CONCLUSION: In women with symptoms of preterm labour before 34 weeks gestation, a model that integrates maternal characteristics, clinical signs and laboratory tests, did not predict delivery within 7 days better than a model with only fibronectin and cervical length.

Risk stratification with cervical length and fetal fibronectin in women with threatened preterm labor before 34 weeks and not delivering within 7 days.

OBJECTIVE: To stratify the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery using cervical length (CL) and fetal fibronectin (fFN) in women with threatened preterm labor who remained pregnant after 7 days. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Nationwide cohort of women with threatened preterm labor from the Netherlands. POPULATION: Women with threatened preterm labor between 24 and 34 weeks with a valid CL and fFN measurement and remaining pregnant 7 days after admission. METHODS: Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate cumulative percentages and hazard ratios (HR) for spontaneous delivery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Spontaneous delivery between 7 and 14 days after initial presentation and spontaneous preterm delivery before 34 weeks. RESULTS: The risk of delivery between 7 and 14 days was significantly increased for women with a CL < 15 mm or a CL ≥15 to <30 mm and a positive fFN, compared with women with a CL ≥30 mm: HR 22.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6-191] and 14 (95% CI 1.8-118), respectively. For spontaneous preterm delivery before 34 weeks the risk was increased for women with a CL < 15 mm [HR 6.3 (95% CI 2.6-15)] or with a CL ≥15 to <30 mm with either positive fFN [HR 3.6 (95% CI 1.5-8.7)] or negative fFN [HR 3.0 (95% CI 1.2-7.1)] compared with women with a CL ≥ 30 mm. CONCLUSIONS: In women remaining pregnant 7 days after threatened preterm labor, CL and fFN results can be used in risk stratification for spontaneous delivery.