Quantifying blue carbon stocks and the role of protected areas to conserve coastal wetlands.

Vegetated coastal ecosystems, in particular mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses are highly efficient at sequestering and storing carbon, making them valuable assets for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The state of Queensland, in northeastern Australia, contains almost half of the total area of these blue carbon ecosystems in the country, yet there are few detailed regional or state-wide assessments of their total sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) stocks. We compiled existing SOC data and used boosted regression tree models to evaluate the influence of environmental variables in explaining the variability in SOC stocks, and to produce spatially explicit blue carbon estimates. The final models explained 75 % (for mangroves and tidal marshes) and 65 % (for seagrasses) of the variability in SOC stocks. Total SOC stocks in the state of Queensland were estimated at 569 ± 98 Tg C (173 ± 32 Tg C, 232 ± 50 Tg C, and 164 ± 16 Tg C from mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses, respectively). Regional predictions for each of Queensland's eleven Natural Resource Management regions revealed that 60 % of the state's SOC stocks occurred within three regions (Cape York, Torres Strait and Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management regions) due to a combination of high values of SOC stocks and large areas of coastal wetlands. Protected areas in Queensland play an important role in conserving SOC assets in Queensland's coastal wetlands. For example, ~19 Tg C within terrestrial protected areas, ~27 Tg C within marine protected areas and ~ 40 Tg C within areas of matters of State Environmental Significance. Using multi-decadal (1987-2020) mapped distributions of mangroves in Queensland; we found that mangrove area increased by approximately 30,000 ha from 1987 to 2020, which led to temporal fluctuations in mangrove plant and SOC stocks. We estimated that plant stocks decreased from ~45 Tg C in 1987 to ~34.2 Tg C in 2020, while SOC stocks remained relatively constant from ~107.9 Tg C in 1987 to 108.0 Tg C in 2020. Considering the level of current protection, emissions from mangrove deforestation are potentially very low; therefore, representing minor opportunities for mangrove blue carbon projects in the region. Our study provides much needed information on current trends in carbon stocks and their conservation in Queensland's coastal wetlands, while also contributing to guide future management actions, including blue carbon restoration projects.

A report card approach to describe temporal and spatial trends in parameters for coastal seagrass habitats.

Report cards that are designed to monitor environmental trends have the potential to provide a powerful communication tool because they are easy to understand and accessible to the general public, scientists, managers and policy makers. Given this functionality, they are increasingly popular in marine ecosystem reporting. We describe a report card method for seagrass that incorporates spatial and temporal variability in three metrics-meadow area, species and biomass-developed using long-term (greater than 10 years) monitoring data. This framework summarises large amounts of spatially and temporally complex data to give a numeric score that provides reliable comparisons of seagrass condition in both persistent and naturally variable meadows. We provide an example of how this is applied to seagrass meadows in an industrial port in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area of north-eastern Australia.

Current and future carbon stocks in coastal wetlands within the Great Barrier Reef catchments.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments include some of the world's most intact coastal wetlands comprising diverse mangrove, seagrass and tidal marsh ecosystems. Although these ecosystems are highly efficient at storing carbon in marine sediments, their soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the potential changes resulting from climate impacts, including sea level rise are not well understood. For the first time, we estimated SOC stocks and their drivers within the range of coastal wetlands of GBR catchments using boosted regression trees (i.e. a machine learning approach and ensemble method for modelling the relationship between response and explanatory variables) and identified the potential changes in future stocks due to sea level rise. We found levels of SOC stocks of mangrove and seagrass meadows have different drivers, with climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall and solar radiation, showing significant contributions in accounting for variation in SOC stocks in mangroves. In contrast, soil type accounted for most of the variability in seagrass meadows. Total SOC stock in the GBR catchments, including mangroves, seagrass meadows and tidal marshes, is approximately 137 Tg C, which represents 9%-13% of Australia's total SOC stock while encompassing only 4%-6% of the total extent of Australian coastal wetlands. In a global context, this could represent 0.5%-1.4% of global SOC stock. Our study suggests that landward migration due to projected sea level rise has the potential to enhance carbon accumulation with total carbon gains between 0.16 and 0.46 Tg C and provides an opportunity for future restoration to enhance blue carbon.

High variability of Blue Carbon storage in seagrass meadows at the estuary scale.

Seagrass meadows are considered important natural carbon sinks due to their capacity to store organic carbon (Corg) in sediments. However, the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage in seagrass sediments needs to be better understood to improve accuracy of Blue Carbon assessments, particularly when strong gradients are present. We performed an intensive coring study within a sub-tropical estuary to assess the spatial variability in sedimentary Corg associated with seagrasses, and to identify the key factors promoting this variability. We found a strong spatial pattern within the estuary, from 52.16 mg Corg cm-3 in seagrass meadows in the upper parts, declining to 1.06 mg Corg cm-3 in seagrass meadows at the estuary mouth, despite a general gradient of increasing seagrass cover and seagrass habitat extent in the opposite direction. The sedimentary Corg underneath seagrass meadows came principally from allochthonous (non-seagrass) sources (~70-90 %), while the contribution of seagrasses was low (~10-30 %) throughout the entire estuary. Our results showed that Corg stored in sediments of seagrass meadows can be highly variable within an estuary, attributed largely to accumulation of fine sediments and inputs of allochthonous sources. Local features and the existence of spatial gradients must be considered in Blue Carbon estimates in coastal ecosystems.

Variability of sedimentary organic carbon in patchy seagrass landscapes.

Seagrass ecosystems, considered among the most efficient carbon sinks worldwide, encompass a wide variety of spatial configurations in the coastal landscape. Here we evaluated the influence of the spatial configuration of seagrass meadows at small scales (metres) on carbon storage in seagrass sediments. We intensively sampled carbon stocks and other geochemical properties (δ(13)C, particle size, depositional fluxes) across seagrass-sand edges in a Zostera muelleri patchy seagrass landscape. Carbon stocks were significantly higher (ca. 20%) inside seagrass patches than at seagrass-sand edges and bare sediments. Deposition was similar among all positions and most of the carbon was from allochthonous sources. Patch level attributes (e.g. edge distance) represent important determinants of the spatial heterogeneity of carbon stocks within seagrass ecosystems. Our findings indicate that carbon stocks of seagrass areas have likely been overestimated by not considering the influence of meadow landscapes, and have important relevance for the design of seagrass carbon stock assessments.