Use of Deep Learning to Evaluate Tumor Microenvironmental Features for Prediction of Colon Cancer Recurrence.

Deep learning may detect biologically important signals embedded in tumor morphologic features that confer distinct prognoses. Tumor morphologic features were quantified to enhance patient risk stratification within DNA mismatch repair (MMR) groups using deep learning. Using a quantitative segmentation algorithm (QuantCRC) that identifies 15 distinct morphologic features, we analyzed 402 resected stage III colon carcinomas [191 deficient (d)-MMR; 189 proficient (p)-MMR] from participants in a phase III trial of FOLFOX-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Results were validated in an independent cohort (176 d-MMR; 1,094 p-MMR). Association of morphologic features with clinicopathologic variables, MMR, KRAS, BRAFV600E, and time-to-recurrence (TTR) was determined. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict TTR. Tumor morphologic features differed significantly by MMR status. Cancers with p-MMR had more immature desmoplastic stroma. Tumors with d-MMR had increased inflammatory stroma, epithelial tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), high-grade histology, mucin, and signet ring cells. Stromal subtype did not differ by BRAFV600E or KRAS status. In p-MMR tumors, multivariable analysis identified tumor-stroma ratio (TSR) as the strongest feature associated with TTR [HRadj 2.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14-3.57; P = 0.018; 3-year recurrence: 40.2% vs. 20.4%; Q1 vs. Q2-4]. Among d-MMR tumors, extent of inflammatory stroma (continuous HRadj 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-0.99; P = 0.028; 3-year recurrence: 13.3% vs. 33.4%, Q4 vs. Q1) and N stage were the most robust prognostically. Association of TSR with TTR was independently validated. In conclusion, QuantCRC can quantify morphologic differences within MMR groups in routine tumor sections to determine their relative contributions to patient prognosis, and may elucidate relevant pathophysiologic mechanisms driving prognosis. SIGNIFICANCE: A deep learning algorithm can quantify tumor morphologic features that may reflect underlying mechanisms driving prognosis within MMR groups. TSR was the most robust morphologic feature associated with TTR in p-MMR colon cancers. Extent of inflammatory stroma and N stage were the strongest prognostic features in d-MMR tumors. TIL density was not independently prognostic in either MMR group.

Mendelian randomisation study of age at menarche and age at menopause and the risk of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Substantial evidence supports an association between use of menopausal hormone therapy and decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, indicating a role of exogenous sex hormones in CRC development. However, findings on endogenous oestrogen exposure and CRC are inconsistent. METHODS: We used a Mendelian randomisation approach to test for a causal effect of age at menarche and age at menopause as surrogates for endogenous oestrogen exposure on CRC risk. Weighted genetic risk scores based on 358 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with age at menarche and 51 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with age at menopause were used to estimate the association with CRC risk using logistic regression in 12,944 women diagnosed with CRC and 10,741 women without CRC from three consortia. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to address pleiotropy and possible confounding by body mass index. RESULTS: Genetic risk scores for age at menarche (odds ratio per year 0.98, 95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.02) and age at menopause (odds ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.01) were not significantly associated with CRC risk. The sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Our study does not support a causal relationship between genetic risk scores for age at menarche and age at menopause and CRC risk.