ABSTRACT
Artificial social intelligence (ASI) agents have great potential to aid the success of individuals, human-human teams, and human-artificial intelligence teams. To develop helpful ASI agents, we created an urban search and rescue task environment in Minecraft to evaluate ASI agents' ability to infer participants' knowledge training conditions and predict participants' next victim type to be rescued. We evaluated ASI agents' capabilities in three ways: (a) comparison to ground truth-the actual knowledge training condition and participant actions; (b) comparison among different ASI agents; and (c) comparison to a human observer criterion, whose accuracy served as a reference point. The human observers and the ASI agents used video data and timestamped event messages from the testbed, respectively, to make inferences about the same participants and topic (knowledge training condition) and the same instances of participant actions (rescue of victims). Overall, ASI agents performed better than human observers in inferring knowledge training conditions and predicting actions. Refining the human criterion can guide the design and evaluation of ASI agents for complex task environments and team composition.
ABSTRACT
Historically, domains such as business intelligence would require a single analyst to engage with data, develop a model, answer operational questions, and predict future behaviors. However, as the problems and domains become more complex, organizations are employing teams of analysts to explore and model data to generate knowledge. Furthermore, given the rapid increase in data collection, organizations are struggling to develop practices for intelligence analysis in the era of big data. Currently, a variety of machine learning and data mining techniques are available to model data and to generate insights and predictions, and developments in the field of visual analytics have focused on how to effectively link data mining algorithms with interactive visuals to enable analysts to explore, understand, and interact with data and data models. Although studies have explored the role of single analysts in the visual analytics pipeline, little work has explored the role of teamwork and visual analytics in the analysis of big data. In this article, we present an experiment integrating statistical models, visual analytics techniques, and user experiments to study the role of teamwork in predictive analytics. We frame our experiment around the analysis of social media data for box office prediction problems and compare the prediction performance of teams, groups, and individuals. Our results indicate that a team's performance is mediated by the team's characteristics such as openness of individual members to others' positions and the type of planning that goes into the team's analysis. These findings have important implications for how organizations should create teams in order to make effective use of information from their analytic models.
