Spatiotemporal modeling of first and second wave outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Germany.

The COVID-19 pandemic has kept the world in suspense for the past year. In most federal countries such as Germany, locally varying conditions demand for state- or county-level decisions to adapt to the disease dynamics. However, this requires a deep understanding of the mesoscale outbreak dynamics between microscale agent models and macroscale global models. Here, we use a reparameterized SIQRD network model that accounts for local political decisions to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of the pandemic in Germany at county resolution. Our optimized model reproduces state-wise cumulative infections and deaths as reported by the Robert Koch Institute and predicts the development for individual counties at convincing accuracy during both waves in spring and fall of 2020. We demonstrate the dominating effect of local infection seeds and identify effective measures to attenuate the rapid spread. Our model has great potential to support decision makers on a state and community politics level to individually strategize their best way forward during the months to come.

Memory-based meso-scale modeling of Covid-19: County-resolved timelines in Germany.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented world-wide effort to gather data, model, and understand the viral spread. Entire societies and economies are desperate to recover and get back to normality. However, to this end accurate models are of essence that capture both the viral spread and the courses of disease in space and time at reasonable resolution. Here, we combine a spatially resolved county-level infection model for Germany with a memory-based integro-differential approach capable of directly including medical data on the course of disease, which is not possible when using traditional SIR-type models. We calibrate our model with data on cumulative detected infections and deaths from the Robert-Koch Institute and demonstrate how the model can be used to obtain county- or even city-level estimates on the number of new infections, hospitality rates and demands on intensive care units. We believe that the present work may help guide decision makers to locally fine-tune their expedient response to potential new outbreaks in the near future.

Mix-and-inject XFEL crystallography reveals gated conformational dynamics during enzyme catalysis.

How changes in enzyme structure and dynamics facilitate passage along the reaction coordinate is a fundamental unanswered question. Here, we use time-resolved mix-and-inject serial crystallography (MISC) at an X-ray free electron laser (XFEL), ambient-temperature X-ray crystallography, computer simulations, and enzyme kinetics to characterize how covalent catalysis modulates isocyanide hydratase (ICH) conformational dynamics throughout its catalytic cycle. We visualize this previously hypothetical reaction mechanism, directly observing formation of a thioimidate covalent intermediate in ICH microcrystals during catalysis. ICH exhibits a concerted helical displacement upon active-site cysteine modification that is gated by changes in hydrogen bond strength between the cysteine thiolate and the backbone amide of the highly strained Ile152 residue. These catalysis-activated motions permit water entry into the ICH active site for intermediate hydrolysis. Mutations at a Gly residue (Gly150) that modulate helical mobility reduce ICH catalytic turnover and alter its pre-steady-state kinetic behavior, establishing that helical mobility is important for ICH catalytic efficiency. These results demonstrate that MISC can capture otherwise elusive aspects of enzyme mechanism and dynamics in microcrystalline samples, resolving long-standing questions about the connection between nonequilibrium protein motions and enzyme catalysis.

Kinematic Flexibility Analysis: Hydrogen Bonding Patterns Impart a Spatial Hierarchy of Protein Motion.

Elastic network models (ENMs) and constraint-based, topological rigidity analysis are two distinct, coarse-grained approaches to study conformational flexibility of macromolecules. In the two decades since their introduction, both have contributed significantly to insights into protein molecular mechanisms and function. However, despite a shared purpose of these approaches, the topological nature of rigidity analysis, and thereby the absence of motion modes, has impeded a direct comparison. Here, we present an alternative, kinematic approach to rigidity analysis, which circumvents these drawbacks. We introduce a novel protein hydrogen bond network spectral decomposition, which provides an orthonormal basis for collective motions modulated by noncovalent interactions, analogous to the eigenspectrum of normal modes. The zero modes decompose proteins into rigid clusters identical to those from topological rigidity, while nonzero modes rank protein motions by their hydrogen bond collective energy penalty. Our kinematic flexibility analysis bridges topological rigidity theory and ENM, enabling a detailed analysis of motion modes obtained from both approaches. Analysis of a large, structurally diverse data set revealed that collectivity of protein motions, reported by the Shannon entropy, is significantly reduced for rigidity theory compared to normal mode approaches. Strikingly, kinematic flexibility analysis suggests that the hydrogen bonding network encodes a protein-fold specific, spatial hierarchy of motions, which goes nearly undetected in ENM. This hierarchy reveals distinct motion regimes that rationalize experimental and simulated protein stiffness variations. Kinematic motion modes highly correlate with reported crystallographic B factors and molecular dynamics simulations of adenylate kinase. A formal expression for changes in free energy derived from the spectral decomposition indicates that motions across nearly 40% of modes obey enthalpy-entropy compensation. Taken together, our results suggest that hydrogen bond networks have evolved to modulate protein structure and dynamics, which can be efficiently probed by kinematic flexibility analysis.

Collision-free poisson motion planning in ultra high-dimensional molecular conformation spaces.

The function of protein, RNA, and DNA is modulated by fast, dynamic exchanges between three-dimensional conformations. Conformational sampling of biomolecules with exact and nullspace inverse kinematics, using rotatable bonds as revolute joints and noncovalent interactions as holonomic constraints, can accurately characterize these native ensembles. However, sampling biomolecules remains challenging owing to their ultra-high dimensional configuration spaces, and the requirement to avoid (self-) collisions, which results in low acceptance rates. Here, we present two novel mechanisms to overcome these limitations. First, we introduce temporary constraints between near-colliding links. The resulting constraint varieties instantaneously redirect the search for collision-free conformations, and couple motions between distant parts of the linkage. Second, we adapt a randomized Poisson-disk motion planner, which prevents local oversampling and widens the search, to ultra-high dimensions. Tests on several model systems show that the sampling acceptance rate can increase from 16% to 70%, and that the conformational coverage in loop modeling measured as average closeness to existing loop conformations doubled. Correlated protein motions identified with our algorithm agree with those from MD simulations. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Frustration-guided motion planning reveals conformational transitions in proteins.

Proteins exist as conformational ensembles, exchanging between substates to perform their function. Advances in experimental techniques yield unprecedented access to structural snapshots of their conformational landscape. However, computationally modeling how proteins use collective motions to transition between substates is challenging owing to a rugged landscape and large energy barriers. Here, we present a new, robotics-inspired motion planning procedure called dCC-RRT that navigates the rugged landscape between substates by introducing dynamic, interatomic constraints to modulate frustration. The constraints balance non-native contacts and flexibility, and instantaneously redirect the motion towards sterically favorable conformations. On a test set of eight proteins determined in two conformations separated by, on average, 7.5 Å root mean square deviation (RMSD), our pathways reduced the Cα atom RMSD to the goal conformation by 78%, outperforming peer methods. We then applied dCC-RRT to examine how collective, small-scale motions of four side-chains in the active site of cyclophilin A propagate through the protein. dCC-RRT uncovered a spatially contiguous network of residues linked by steric interactions and collective motion connecting the active site to a recently proposed, non-canonical capsid binding site 25 Å away, rationalizing NMR and multi-temperature crystallography experiments. In all, dCC-RRT can reveal detailed, all-atom molecular mechanisms for small and large amplitude motions. Source code and binaries are freely available at https://github.com/ExcitedStates/KGS/.

Fast, clash-free RNA conformational morphing using molecular junctions.

MOTIVATION: Non-coding ribonucleic acids (ncRNA) are functional RNA molecules that are not translated into protein. They are extremely dynamic, adopting diverse conformational substates, which enables them to modulate their interaction with a large number of other molecules. The flexibility of ncRNA provides a challenge for probing their complex 3D conformational landscape, both experimentally and computationally. RESULTS: Despite their conformational diversity, ncRNAs mostly preserve their secondary structure throughout the dynamic ensemble. Here we present a kinematics-based procedure to morph an RNA molecule between conformational substates, while avoiding inter-atomic clashes. We represent an RNA as a kinematic linkage, with fixed groups of atoms as rigid bodies and rotatable bonds as degrees of freedom. Our procedure maintains RNA secondary structure by treating hydrogen bonds between base pairs as constraints. The constraints define a lower-dimensional, secondary-structure constraint manifold in conformation space, where motions are largely governed by molecular junctions of unpaired nucleotides. On a large benchmark set, we show that our morphing procedure compares favorably to peer algorithms, and can approach goal conformations to within a low all-atom RMSD by directing fewer than 1% of its atoms. Our results suggest that molecular junctions can modulate 3D structural rearrangements, while secondary structure elements guide large parts of the molecule along the transition to the correct final conformation. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The source code, binaries and data are available at https://simtk.org/home/kgs . CONTACT: amelie.heliou@polytechnique.edu or vdbedem@stanford.edu. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Geometric analysis characterizes molecular rigidity in generic and non-generic protein configurations.

Proteins operate and interact with partners by dynamically exchanging between functional substates of a conformational ensemble on a rugged free energy landscape. Understanding how these substates are linked by coordinated, collective motions requires exploring a high-dimensional space, which remains a tremendous challenge. While molecular dynamics simulations can provide atomically detailed insight into the dynamics, computational demands to adequately sample conformational ensembles of large biomolecules and their complexes often require tremendous resources. Kinematic models can provide high-level insights into conformational ensembles and molecular rigidity beyond the reach of molecular dynamics by reducing the dimensionality of the search space. Here, we model a protein as a kinematic linkage and present a new geometric method to characterize molecular rigidity from the constraint manifold Q and its tangent space Q at the current configuration q. In contrast to methods based on combinatorial constraint counting, our method is valid for both generic and non-generic, e.g., singular configurations. Importantly, our geometric approach provides an explicit basis for collective motions along floppy modes, resulting in an efficient procedure to probe conformational space. An atomically detailed structural characterization of coordinated, collective motions would allow us to engineer or allosterically modulate biomolecules by selectively stabilizing conformations that enhance or inhibit function with broad implications for human health.