Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of the Brazilian fire spots between 2011 and 2022.

Wildfires are among the most common natural disasters in many world regions and actively impact life quality. These events have become frequent due to climate change, other local policies, and human behavior. Fire spots are areas where the temperature is significantly higher than in the surrounding areas and are often used to identify wildfires. This study considers the historical data with the geographical locations of all the "fire spots" detected by the reference satellites covering the Brazilian territory between January 2011 and December 2022, comprising more than 2.2 million fire spots. This data was modeled with a spatio-temporal generalized linear mixed model for areal unit data, whose inferences about its parameters are made in a Bayesian framework and use meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed) and a human variable (land-use transition and occupation) as covariates. The meteorological variables humidity and air temperature showed the most significant impact on the number of fire spots for each of the six Brazilian biomes.

Gender differences in symptomatic profiles of depression: results from the São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated symptomatic subtypes of depression and their correlates by gender. METHODS: Data are from the São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey. Symptom profiles of 1207 subjects (864 women; 343 men) based upon symptoms of the worst depressive episode in lifetime were examined through latent class analysis. Correlates of gender-specific latent classes were analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: For both men and women, a 3-class model was the best solution. A mild class was found in both genders (41.1% in women; 40.1% in men). Gender differences appeared in the most symptomatic classes. In women, they were labeled melancholic (39.3%) and atypical (19.5%), differing among each other in somatic/vegetative symptoms. The melancholic class presented inhibition and eating/sleeping symptoms in the direction of decreasing, whereas the atypical class had increased appetite/weight, and hypersomnia. For men, symptoms that differentiate the two most symptomatic classes were related to psychomotor activity: a melancholic/psychomotor retarded (40.4%) and agitated depression (19.6%). The highest between-class proportion of agitation and racing thoughts was found among men in the agitated class, with similarity to bipolar mixed state. LIMITATIONS: Analyses were restricted to those who endorsed questions about their worst lifetime depressive episode; the standardized assessment by lay interviewers; the small male sample size. CONCLUSIONS: The construct of depression of current classifications is heterogeneous at the symptom level, where gender different subtypes can be identified. These symptom profiles have potential implications for the nosology and the therapeutics of depression.