Trade-offs constrain the success of glyphosate-free farming.

Glyphosate, the most widely used herbicide, is linked with environmental harm and there is a drive to replace it in agricultural systems. We model the impacts of discontinuing glyphosate use and replacing it with cultural control methods. We simulate winter wheat arable systems reliant on glyphosate and typical in northwest Europe. Removing glyphosate was projected to increase weed abundance, herbicide risk to the environment, and arable plant diversity and decrease food production. Weed communities with evolved resistance to non-glyphosate herbicides were not projected to be disproportionately affected by removing glyphosate, despite the lack of alternative herbicidal control options. Crop rotations with more spring cereals or grass leys for weed control increased arable plant diversity. Stale seedbed techniques such as delayed drilling and choosing ploughing instead of minimum tillage had varying effects on weed abundance, food production, and profitability. Ploughing was the most effective alternative to glyphosate for long-term weed control while maintaining production and profit. Our findings emphasize the need for careful consideration of trade-offs arising in scenarios where glyphosate is removed. Integrated Weed Management (IWM) with more use of cultural control methods offers the potential to reduce chemical use but is sensitive to seasonal variability and can incur negative environmental and economic impacts.

Meta-analysis reveals that pollinator functional diversity and abundance enhance crop pollination and yield.

How insects promote crop pollination remains poorly understood in terms of the contribution of functional trait differences between species. We used meta-analyses to test for correlations between community abundance, species richness and functional trait metrics with oilseed rape yield, a globally important crop. While overall abundance is consistently important in predicting yield, functional divergence between species traits also showed a positive correlation. This result supports the complementarity hypothesis that pollination function is maintained by non-overlapping trait distributions. In artificially constructed communities (mesocosms), species richness is positively correlated with yield, although this effect is not seen under field conditions. As traits of the dominant species do not predict yield above that attributed to the effect of abundance alone, we find no evidence in support of the mass ratio hypothesis. Management practices increasing not just pollinator abundance, but also functional divergence, could benefit oilseed rape agriculture.

Country-specific effects of neonicotinoid pesticides on honey bees and wild bees.

Neonicotinoid seed dressings have caused concern world-wide. We use large field experiments to assess the effects of neonicotinoid-treated crops on three bee species across three countries (Hungary, Germany, and the United Kingdom). Winter-sown oilseed rape was grown commercially with either seed coatings containing neonicotinoids (clothianidin or thiamethoxam) or no seed treatment (control). For honey bees, we found both negative (Hungary and United Kingdom) and positive (Germany) effects during crop flowering. In Hungary, negative effects on honey bees (associated with clothianidin) persisted over winter and resulted in smaller colonies in the following spring (24% declines). In wild bees (Bombus terrestris and Osmia bicornis), reproduction was negatively correlated with neonicotinoid residues. These findings point to neonicotinoids causing a reduced capacity of bee species to establish new populations in the year following exposure.

Empirical validation of the InVEST water yield ecosystem service model at a national scale.

A variety of tools have emerged with the goal of mapping the current delivery of ecosystem services and quantifying the impact of environmental changes. An important and often overlooked question is how accurate the outputs of these models are in relation to empirical observations. In this paper we validate a hydrological ecosystem service model (InVEST Water Yield Model) using widely available data. We modelled annual water yield in 22 UK catchments with widely varying land cover, population and geology, and compared model outputs with gauged river flow data from the UK National River Flow Archive. Values for input parameters were selected from existing literature to reflect conditions in the UK and were subjected to sensitivity analyses. We also compared model performance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data sourced from global- and UK-scale datasets. We then tested the transferability of the results within the UK by additional validation in a further 20 catchments. Whilst the model performed only moderately with global-scale data (linear regression of modelled total water yield against empirical data; slope=0.763, intercept=54.45, R(2)=0.963) with wide variation in performance between catchments, the model performed much better when using UK-scale input data, with closer fit to the observed data (slope=1.07, intercept=3.07, R(2)=0.990). With UK data the majority of catchments showed <10% difference between measured and modelled water yield but there was a minor but consistent overestimate per hectare (86m(3)/ha/year). Additional validation on a further 20 UK catchments was similarly robust, indicating that these results are transferable within the UK. These results suggest that relatively simple models can give accurate measures of ecosystem services. However, the choice of input data is critical and there is a need for further validation in other parts of the world.

Applications of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation during regulatory review.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation is a tool that can help predict the pharmacokinetics of drugs in humans and evaluate the effects of intrinsic (e.g., organ dysfunction, age, genetics) and extrinsic (e.g., drug-drug interactions) factors, alone or in combinations, on drug exposure. The use of this tool is increasing at all stages of the drug development process. This report reviews recent instances of the use of PBPK in decision-making during regulatory review. The examples are based on Center for Drug Evaluation and Research reviews of several submissions for investigational new drugs (INDs) and new drug applications (NDAs) received between July 2008 and June 2010. The use of PBPK modeling and simulation facilitated the following types of decisions: the need to conduct specific clinical pharmacology studies, specific study designs, and appropriate labeling language. The report also discusses the challenges encountered when PBPK modeling and simulation were used in these cases and recommends approaches to facilitating full utilization of this tool.

Fitness of hybrids between rapeseed (Brassica napus) and wild Brassica rapa in natural habitats.

Fitness of hybrids between genetically modified (GM) crops and wild relatives influences the likelihood of ecological harm. We measured fitness components in spontaneous (non-GM) rapeseed x Brassica rapa hybrids in natural populations. The F1 hybrids yielded 46.9% seed output of B. rapa, were 16.9% as effective as males on B. rapa and exhibited increased self-pollination. Assuming 100% GM rapeseed cultivation, we conservatively predict < 7000 second-generation transgenic hybrids annually in the United Kingdom (i.e. approximately 20% of F1 hybrids). Conversely, whilst reduced hybrid fitness improves feasibility of bio-containment, stage projection matrices suggests broad scope for some transgenes to offset this effect by enhancing fitness.

Long distance seed dispersal by wind: measuring and modelling the tail of the curve.

The size and shape of the tail of the seed dispersal curve is important in determining the spatial dynamics of plants, but is difficult to quantify. We devised an experimental protocol to measure long-distance dispersal which involved measuring dispersal by wind from isolated individuals at a range of distances from the source, but maintaining a large and constant sampling intensity at each distance. Seeds were trapped up to 80 m from the plants, the furthest a dispersal curve for an individual plant has been measured for a non-tree species. Standard empirical negative exponential and inverse power models were fitted using likelihood methods. The latter always had a better fit than the former, but in most cases neither described the data well, and strongly under-estimated the tail of the dispersal curve. An alternative model formulation with two kernel components had a much better fit in most cases and described the tail data more accurately. Mechanistic models provide an alternative to direct measurement of dispersal. However, while a previous mechanistic model accurately predicted the modal dispersal distance, it always under-predicted the measured tail. Long-distance dispersal may be caused by rare extremes in horizontal wind speed or turbulence. Therefore, under-estimation of the tail by standard empirical models and mechanistic models may indicate a lack of flexibility to take account of such extremes. Future studies should examine carefully whether the widely used exponential and power models are, in fact, valid, and investigate alternative models.

A density-dependent model of Cirsium vulgare population dynamics using field-estimated parameter values.

Two versions of a stage-structured model of Cirsium vulgare population dynamics were developed. Both incorporated density dependence at one stage in the life cycle of the plant. In version 1 density dependence was assumed to operate during germination whilst in version 2 it was included at the seedling stage. Density-dependent parameter values for the model were estimated from annual census data in a factorial grazing experiment. Version 1 of the model produced significant estimates of density dependence under field conditions. The estimated values, when included in a simulation of the dynamics, produced two-point limit cycles under conditions of hard grazing. The limit cycles were most pronounced at the early rosette stage. Comparison of the effects of density dependence at the two different stages in the life cycle revealed a strong difference in predicted dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of determining where density dependence operates under field conditions and the potential problems of arbitrarily assigning it to particular life-history stages. Version 1 of the model produced a good prediction of observed mean plant density across the different grazing treatments (r 2=0.81, P<0.001).

Carryover effects on the clonal growth of the grass Holcus lanatus L.

The effects of clipping and daylength treatments and their carryover effects on the clonal growth of the perennial grass Holcus lanatus L. were investigated. Plants from ten clones were grown in six combinations of two daylength and three clipping treatments. Both clipping and low daylength reduced the tillering rate of all the clones but the clones differed in their degree of response to these treatments. After eight weeks, the treatments were discontinued and plants were grown in a common environment for seven weeks. Four-week-old tillers from the plants were repotted and grown in a common environment to examine the possibility of 'carryover' effects of the parental environments. After 8 wk of growth, there were main and interaction carryover effects of daylength and clipping on the tillering rates, biomass and tiller extension rates of the plants, which, however, differed greatly among clones. These differences among clones in both direct and carryover treatment effects, on clonal growth, indicate how the effects of many different environmental variables may interact to produce an environment that is highly heterogeneous in space and time, influencing the coexistence of genotypes and species.

Two per cent glutaraldehyde: a disinfectant in arthroscopy and arthroscopic surgery.

Arthroscopes and some instruments for arthroscopic surgery were prepared for use by soaking them for fifteen minutes in a cold solution of 2 per cent glutaraldehyde. This method was practical, economical, safe, and effective. Over a eight-year period we performed 12,505 arthroscopic procedures with an infection rate of 0.04 per cent. Although technically classified as a disinfectant, 2 per cent glutaraldehyde used under these conditions proved to be an effective method of preparing arthroscopic surgical instruments and was less damaging to these instruments than methods involving sterilization by steam.